The Crystal ball is still clouded. Even as India Inc. tries to claw its way out of the economic slowdown, boom-times refuse to loom on the horizon. Despite the December, 1997, consolidation of the industrial recovery that began in April, 1997, business soothsayers--like BT--predict gloom for what's left of 1997-98.

As the BT-AIMS Research poll of 52 sectoral analysts in five major cities reveals, 23.80 per cent of the respondents foresee a drop in sales by 10 to 15 per cent while 35.70 per cent predict a performance marginally worse than that of last year. Worse, as much as 19 per cent feel that the fall will be even steeper. As for profits, a third of the respondents expect a plunge of more than 15 per cent in the bottomline. And only 16.60 per cent anticipate an improvement, notwithstanding the tax bonanzas of Budget 97.

Although it isn't an undifferentiated picture of despair, the polarisation between the victors and the vanquished is sharp. For instance, the pharmaceuticals sector tops the list of probable winners, backed by 54.80 per cent. Explains Deepak Malhotra, 30, senior executive, Caspian Securities: "The pharma sector has two advantages. One, it is not affected by a slowdown, and two, companies are very focused." And services and consumer non-durables run neck-and-neck for second place on the gainers' roster, with 16.70 per cent projecting that these industries will do well.

At the head of the losers' list is the automobiles sector, followed by textiles and steel. That's not surprising, with the slowdown being distinctly evident in the auto and steel sectors. Compared to the growth of 15.60 per cent in the sales of commercial vehicles in the April-December, 1996, period, the segment reported a drop of 20.60 per cent in the same period of 1997. True, passenger car sales edged up, with sales almost matching production in December last year. However, despite the revving up, the industry will finish way behind other sectors. Says K.A. Chaukar, 50, managing director, I-Sec: "The overall growth will be a far cry from the peaks reached by the sector earlier."

Steel suffered too, with production growing at a meagre 0.60 per cent in April-December, 1997, over the corresponding period of 1996. With the South East Asian markets for steel caving in, exports will fall short of the target. Moreover, there is a likelihood of steel imports from these countries into India. Also on the threatened list is the textiles sector. Warns Viney Singhal, 52, president (strategic services), Indo Rama: "If domestic prices are forced up, then imports are likely." And that will obviously hurt even more.

Just what picture does this add up to for the economy? Poor agricultural performance, pressure on the service industry--the hospitality and airline sectors are expected to fare badly this fiscal, although software may be an exception--and a drop in industrial production will mean a downward revision in the gross domestic product forecast by one percentage point, to 5 per cent--well short of the 7 per cent that Budget 97 had hoped for.

Don't expect the gloom to lift till the middle of 1998-99. As the poll portends, 45.20 per cent of the respondents do not expect a recovery within the next 12 months. The yawning gulf between the competitive companies and the also-rans will only grow. Sure, corporate India will roar again, but it may not happen in the Year Of The Tiger.

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