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L E A D S T O R Y 10 Years After
No one can deny that the 1990s were a tumultuous decade for India Inc. Not only did it shake-up the rotting licence-quota regime that had enabled the growth of business groups with strong political connections, but it also witnessed the growth of the New Economy. Suddenly, the Infosys and the Wipros were creating more wealth than the Tatas and the Ambanis. Not surprisingly, many upstarts stormed through the closely-guarded bastions of the top 20 business groups. For decades, the Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Modis, Dalmias, and Singhanias had consistently figured in the top 20 list. No longer. The 1990s clearly announced the decline of many of these groups. With a turnover of Rs 3,000 crore in 1991-92, the Thapar Group ranked fifth. Seven years on, it ranks 11th. The same happened to most Birla factions and the Singhania groups (See How They Now Score), the exception being the Aditya Birla Group. Another crop of business houses that took a beating in the nanosecond 90s were the South-based ones. While the Amalgamations Group did not even figure in the top 20 list in 1998-99, the Murugappas slipped from 11 to 20. So, what separated the winners-like Hindustan Lever Ltd (HLL), Tata, Reliance, and ITC-from the losers? What enabled the former to breeze through? The answer: supergrowth. The 90s were not about an organic annual growth of 10-20 per cent. They were about multiplier growth rates. For example, Reliance Group's turnover zoomed by nearly seven times to just under Rs 21,000 crore in 1999. And that of HLL soared by nearly 1,000 per cent to over Rs 14,000 crore. Compare that to the ck Birla Group, which just doubled its turnover, or the Hari Shankar Singhania Group that tripled its sales. However, the strategies adopted by the corporate Czars of the nineties were different. For instance, HLL initiated a series of M&As. But the Ambanis increased their asset base from Rs 2,500 crore to nearly Rs 30,000 crore in the past decade to emerge as No. 2 in 1998-99. Not surprisingly, the Reliance Group is now scouting for acquisitions to stay on its growth curve in the New Millennium. Nothing can better epitomise the Nineties spirit than the upstart groups like Essar, Usha Rectifier, and Videocon. Using the stockmarkets in the eighties to finance their greenfield projects, these groups exploited the potential in areas like power and telecom that were opened up in the liberalised nineties. In the meantime, what happened to the losers? Plagued by competitive forces unleashed by Manmohanomics, they were forced to actually rein-in their growth. Many of these groups restructured their corporate empires by exiting unrelated areas in a bid to create new core competencies for themselves. Thus, while a few of them emerged financially stronger, most lost out in the growth race. The prime example of this would be the Thapar Group, which witnessed a growth of 65 per cent in the seven-year period. Not to forget the Gaur Hari Singhania group, whose turnover halved to Rs 500 crore during the period. Similarly, the Wadia Group could not implement most of its greenfield projects. There is little doubt that the first decade of the millennium will throw up new names too. For, if groups like Infosys and Satyam continue to show growths of 100 per cent every quarter, they are bound to break into the elite list sooner than later. For once, the strides made by the New Economy empires will determine their place in the Indian business hierarchy. M&As, too, would become important. For instance, if the Reliance Group gobbles up BSEs, Larsen & Toubro, and a couple of other giants, it would displace the Tatas from their pole position. Or if, Doordarshan is privatised and taken over by Subhash Chandra's Zee Telefilms, it will catapult Zee into the top 10. One thing is for sure, though. If the 90s were tumultuous, the new century will be apocalyptic for India Inc. -Alam Srinivas B O M B A
Y S T O C K E X C H A N G E: For a bourse born under a banyan tree, the Bombay Stock Exchange has come a long way. On July 9, the BSE turned 125 years old. In a well-attended birthday bash, the Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee unveiled a plaque on BSE's history. Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, industry bigwigs, and regulators rubbed shoulders. Born as a voluntary, not-for-profit, Native Share and Stockbrokers Association, the BSE is one of the oldest in Asia-older than the Tokyo Stock Exchange, founded in 1878. Today, it boasts of a market capitalisation of Rs 8,00,000 crore. BSE's distinction: it has the largest number of scrips listed on any stock exchange. Not that Vajpayee was overawed. He probably meant it when he said: ''I must confess that what goes on inside a stock exchange amuses me.'' Most would agree. But BSE is keen to be taken seriously. Says Anand Rathi, 45, President, BSE: ''What remains unchanged is our tradition, trust, and transparency.'' Its plans: taking advantage of the global consolidation of bourses. By the time it's 130 years old, it wants to be the world's preferred exchange. A perfect birthday wish? -Roshni Jayakar I N V E S T M E N T Arbitraging, or buying and selling of stocks at the same time in different markets to take advantage of price differentials, is nothing new. But now brokers have one more option-of artbitraging between cash and futures markets on the National Stock Exchange's (NSE) Nifty50. This means an investor buying Rs 2 crore worth of Nifty50 index futures for October will be able to artbitrage his position in the cash market by a single sell order, by which all the 50 scrips comprising the Nifty50 will be sold in the cash market in the same proportion and weightage to the future's index. Earlier, if an investor wanted to artbitrage between the cash and futures market on the NSE, he first had to create a basket of Nifty stocks by putting through 50 different orders, one each for every scrip in the cash market. In contrast, the Nifty futures could be bought or sold through just one order. Says R.H. Patil, 59, managing director, NSE: ''The product will give members of Nifty50 stocks to trade in the cash market.'' The NSE will go on-line with the product in a month's time. Then, the investor will only need to mention the amount he wants to buy or sell in the cash market. The trading system will automatically generate the basket and conclude the transaction for the 50 scrips-all through the single click of a mouse. The future of arbitraging has been made easy. -Roshni Jayakar E C O N O M Y Call it Vajpayee's Vision 2020. In a first undertaking of its kind, prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has asked the Planning Commission to draw up a blueprint to turn the Indian economic elephant into an Asian tiger by the year 2020. His benchmark growth rate: 10-12 per cent every year. In addition, Vajpayee has asked the Commission to ensure that the growth model achieves not only a high rate of growth, but also equitable distribution of wealth so that there are no regional imbalances. Points out B.B. Bhattacharya, 53, Head of Development Planning Centre at the Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), which is developing the model: ''It is a challenging task because the long-term model will not only have to incorporate new variables that will drive the economy of the future, but also suggest policy corrections to achieve such a growth.'' The model will have to take into account the linkages between the Indian and global economy, possible changes in the politcal system, in production processes, and consumption habits, even as it anticipates the changes in science and technology over the next 20 years. In fact, IEG will have to factor in the entire gamut of economic and social factors before it can arrive at a workable formula. Bhattacharya says that if the present policies continue, regional disparities will grow significantly. Already, Punjab has three times the income of Bihar, and Maharashtra five times that of Bihar. And by 2020, incomes of Punjab and Maharashtra will be 20-30 times that of Bihar, creating greater regional imbalances and income disparities. Such disparity will result in massive migration from the less developed areas to those more developed, creating major repercussions in the economy. What makes the task more daunting is the absence of reliable data in a number of key sectors. For instance, even common details such as the total amount of water in the country are not available with the government. ''So, first we may have to generate the necessary data and only then we will be able to factor it in our model,'' argues Bhattacharya. The IEG should not have a problem in developing such a model, since a similar model called 'Worldscan' has been developed by a Netherlands-based team, whose help it now plans to take. The real constraint, however, is the lack of funds. An exercise of this magnitude would require a battery of researchers, as well as foreign collaborators, to work on the huge amount of data. Yet, the government is unwilling to release any funds. Laments Bhattacharya: ''At present, the Government of India is bankrupt as far as research funds are concerned.'' In which case, Vajpayee's grand blueprint may never get off the drawing board. -Ashish Gupta B R A N D M A
R K E T I N G You are what you wear, they say. But could it be that you wear what you are? Marketers of ready-to-wear garments increasingly seem to think so. Gone are the days when marketers segmented markets based on demographics or social aspirations. The in-thing on Fashion Street is consumer psychography, mapping the mind of the consumer. Says Anand Halve, 45, Co-Founder, Cholorphyll Brand & Communication Consultancy: ''Brands should appeal to something inside your head.'' With store racks bursting with similar kinds of ready-to-wear brands, companies are increasingly trying to do something different. Instead of getting stuck in product profile, they are now working backwards from the consumer profile. For instance, Park Avenue targets the adventurous; Dockers, the well-heeled globetrotter; Allen Solly, the non-conformist, self-confident male; and ColorPlus the executive who has 'arrived'. But without exception, all these brands are oriented to communicating a strong high-quality appeal. Profiling allows companies to position different products under the same brand umbrella to specific customer groups. Levi's, for instance, carried out extensive research on the average Indian's physical construct before introducing Dockers in seven different fits. Says S. Padmanabhan, 43, Executive Director, JK Synthetic (Mumbai): ''The product range has to be assiduously built after understanding the consumer needs.'' Sartorial tastes, of course, are changing. The pin-stripe suited banker is getting into a more comfortable, but formal, Louis Philippe or Arrow. The not-so-stiff professionals are now abandoning their suits in favour of ColorPlus or Park Avenue. And then, there are after-hours wears, weekend wears, and Sunday casuals. Points out Sanjay Gangopadhyay, 34, general manager (Marketing), Levi's Strauss (India): ''Earlier, dressing norms were set by office environment and business etiquette. Now, it is considerations of comfort that is driving the market.'' Not surprisingly, the target market of almost all the apparel manufacturers is the upper class, professional, quality-conscious urban male. Notes Arvind Singhal, 41, Managing Director, KSA Technopak: ''It's simply because the penetration of branded apparel is the highest in this particular segment.'' And they are going to great lengths to ensure consumer intimacy. For example, Levi's has gone to the extent of wiring up all its sales offices to obtain real-time information on changing consumer preferences. The issue is really simple: the better you know your customer, the more he sticks to you. It is to this credo that the ready-to-wear brand strategy is stitched. -Vinod Mahanta |
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