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Too
much money chasing too few products. It's just what doomsayers need
to ring the alarm, especially once it shows up as inflation, as
measured by India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Just how accurately
this creaky old index tracks the chase in these days of booming
services, however, gets less attention than how much damage could
be done to the image of a government that promises to deploy fine
economic brains to achieve 'equitable growth'. Inflation hurts the
poor most, everybody knows, though price instability has broader
long-term economic costs too (such as resource allocation distortions).
Thus, barely had wholesale inflation breached
the 8 per cent mark in August, that India saw rapid-fire action
on the fiscal front. Duties were slashed on petroleum products,
steel and edible oil. And as inflation began to ease, the government's
intervention instincts only seemed to sharpen. This, be warned,
is the real point of alarm.
Sure, the sectors have been rather nicely selected,
being subject to gross intervention on a global scale that mocks
the very idea of 'free market' forces. But why should India let
its fiscal policy-which ought to rest on canons that hold steady
over the years-become an artificial instant-use tool to meddle with
the momentary ebbs and flows of money? If inflation were to plummet
or turn negative, would duties be raised?
Okay, maybe it's an oversimplification to think
of just the money chase; inflation could have specific 'cost push'
causes that can be isolated and micro-managed. But even on this
premise, there's little conclusive evidence to argue that these
causes are anything more enduring than blips that will play themselves
out, given just a few more months perhaps. So to go about changing
duty structures is still an over-reaction. Unless it's all a game
of signaling more than effecting much.
Even so, the one big fiscal thing the government
can do for price stability is keep its own deficit in check. And
then do what can be done. The non-inflationary use of foreign exchange
reserves to ease infrastructural constraints, for example, is a
smart idea. A good way to keep money from turning frantic in its
chase of goods, is to enable a structural smoothening of the economy
by attacking supply bottlenecks (and with quick force, regardless
of the colour of the multibillions invested). The need: efficiency.
The rest of the job is ideally left to monetary
policy-as set by an independent Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This
is the tool that's supposed to make short-term adjustments to keep
the economy humming. And indeed, the RBI has already responded to
inflation by raising the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of banks. Thus
has it tightened money, ever so slightly, without resorting to an
interest rate hike.
When the RBI's benchmark rate does go up, it
ought to be in response to clear signs of 'demand pull' inflation,
as economic activity starts roaring ahead. Even then, the tightening
will probably be both agonised and modest, since no central banker
would want the blame for playing spoilsport in an accelerating economy.
The cost-of-capital being too high in India had once been a pet
peeve of businessmen asked to turn globally competitive all of a
sudden. It's gone now, and should stay that way.
To nudge growth upwards, it might be better
to err on the side of a delayed rather than prompt tightening of
monetary policy. This could call for the government's expending
some of its political capital on tolerance of mild inflation, as
investments get cracking. For business, the most reassuring part
is that interest rates will never return to the earlier highs. Increasing
competition has turned Indian banking efficient enough to eke out
profits on lower spreads.
Competition, in fact, is quite bankable even
as an inflation-muffler in other sectors. This could be the way
forward. Competition-favouring reforms, accompanied as they would
be by a burst of heady marketing activity, could help turn the chase
around. Too many products chasing wallets.
Chasing ever-more ever-fattening wallets.
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