Computers Today, July 1-15, 1999, Master File; World View; pg 2

In the mobile phone market, Noika sailed past Motorola Corp. and topped the 1998 listings for the mobile phone sales. According to Dataquest Inc., Motorola Corp. held its number one position in the analogue segment, but Nokia posted the strongest over-all growth in the mobile telephone market. On the whole, the market posted a sales increase of 51 percent in 1998, with 162.9 million mobile phones shipped to consumers. Nokia sold about 37.4 million mobile phones worldwide-seizing nearly 30 percent market share in 1998.

How did the handheld market (palmtops and personal digital assistants) fare in 1998? According to the Dataquest Inc., the worldwide handheld market rocketed up 61.4 percent last year. Worldwide handheld shipments surpassed 3.9 million units in 1998. 3Com shipped 1.6 million units or 40.1 percent of the worldwide total-a slight drop from 1997's 41.2 percent figure. Similarly, Psion PLC and Hewlett-Packard lost market share. In contrast, Sharp, Philips Mobile and NEC gained market share. Sharp held its number two position with 20.8 percent market share-up from 20 percent in 1997. Interestingly, NEC topped the chart for growth-from just 0.6 percent to 4.3 percent of the total shipment.

Similarly, 1.6 million units of global positioning system (GPS) are predicted to ship in 1999. According to forecasts by research firm Computer Economics, the figure is expected to rise to almost 6 million by the year 2005.

Despite the Asian economic crisis, the worldwide PC market grew 15 percent in 1998. According to Gartner Group's Dataquest unit, US and Europe together accounted for 65 percent of all PCs shipped. While Compaq topped the list with 13.8 percent of the total PC market on a growth rate of 13.3 percent, IBM grew at a modest 9.5 percent and held to its second position with 8.2 percent of the global market. Dell Computer had a close shave with 7.9 percent market share globally-up by 2.4 percent than the year before.

According to a survey conducted by IDC, Lotus Notes and Domino retained its market lead, capturing 13.44 new users worldwide in 1998. Next position belonged to Microsoft Exchange with 11.78 million new users followed by Novell Groupwise with 4.51 million new users globally. As for total users worldwide, Lotus Domino/Notes maintained its market dominance by reaching 29.57 million, followed by Microsoft Exchange with 21.19 million and Novell GroupWise with 14.21 million. The research firm estimates that the worldwide package software market has grown to $135 billion in 1998.

The Asian economic problems hit the server market badly. According to an IDC study, revenues of high-end server vendors at $16.3 billion declined by 8.3 percent over 1997. The report found that IBM's revenues grew by 17 percent to $6 billion, giving IBM 37 percent share of the worldwide server market. Fujitsu raked in about $1.4 billion while NEC revenue figures for 1998 stood at $1.1 billion-a slip for both firms-43 and 38 percent respectively. In contrast, Sun Microsystems more than doubled its revenues at $907 million at 108 percent annual growth rate.

New Millenium

Perhaps the most-awaited event of the year was the launch of Microsoft's Office 2000 'next generation' suite of products. The product is the upgrade to the software giant's current desktop suite-Office 97-including the popular Word, Power Point and Excel. Slotted as the world's first completely Web-enabled desktop application in the world, Office 2000 is available in five flavours: Standard, Professional, Premium, Developer Edition and Small Business Edition. So what's hot in the new upgrade? For one, it enables real-time two-way Web interactivity-multiple users can simultaneously work on the same document. The upgrade also has richer data tracking and analyses features, self-repairing applications, template manager, Microsoft office profile and removal wizard.

As expected, 1998 held no respite for the semiconductor industry. While Intel, Siemens, STMicroelectronics and Philips grew, the rest of the industry had a bad year. As per Dataquest Inc., seven of the top 11 semiconductor vendors saw worldwide revenues slip down by about 14 percent. The chip giant Intel posted revenues of about $ 22.7 billion at a growth of 4.3 percent, followed by NEC and Motorola at $8.3 million and $6.9 million respectively. Siemens with $3.7 million boasted of the highest percent growth of 12.4 percent. Overall, the worldwide semiconductor revenue reached $134.8 billion, a decline of 8.4 percent on 1997 revenue. The DRAM market was the worst hit, with revenue slipping 29.5 percent from 1997 due to over-capacity. Segments that performed satisfactorily included microprocessors (up 7.7 percent) and digital signal processors (up 5.4 percent). As for the share in the chip market, Intel stood at 16.9 percent, NEC at 6 percent and Motorola maintained the third spot at 5.3 percent.

Speciality chips used for networking and communication were a silver lining to the dismal semiconductor market. Leading semiconductor giants including Lucent Technologies, Motorola and Texas Instruments jumped on the speciality chips bandwagon and rolled out new processors for network equipment manufacturers such as 3Com. While computers still constitute a large chunk of semiconductor revenue with 48 percent of the market, communications falls in the second place with 20 percent. In the overall semiconductor market in 1998, the number of units sold grew only by 1 percent while semiconductor sales in the communication segment grew about 8 percent. A study by International Business Strategies reveals that the communications chip market will grow from $28.3 billion in revenue in 1998 to $90.4 billion in 2005. Or take the case of embedded chips. Last year, 250 million high-end (32-bit or 64-bit) embedded processors shipped.

According to a report by Paul Budde Communication, the Asian telecom market zoomed past $300 b in 1998. Increased competition saw telecom service providers' revenue growth drop from 15 percent in 1996 to 5 percent in 1997 and to slightly less in 1998. The report states that the largest growth in cellular subscribers was in India.

On the OS front, Linux operating system surged ahead and gained the much-awaited backing of the industry leaders including IBM, Intel, Compaq, Dell Computer and SGI. Dell announced that it will bundle Red Hat's version of Linux on some of its OptiPlex PCs and Precision workstations. ERP major SAP plans to ship to deliver R/3 to its customers with Linux OS soon. Similarly, IBM announced its plans to support the Unix-derivative for its WebSphere Application Server. Also, Hewlett-Packard has formed an internal organisation-Open Source Software Operation-that would lead Linux work companywide.

Overall, the market share for Linux increased by 212 percent in 1998-a growth rate that put OS giants like Windows NT and Unix to shame. According to IDC, Linux's market share leapt from just 6.8 percent to over 17.2 percent. Analysts opine that a key booster was the anti-Microsoft wave and low pricing. Though the growth rate of Linux was faster, Windows NT and Novell Netware maintained their lead in market share with 36 percent and 24.2 percent respectively.

With many dreadful viruses floating (see box), it was a boom time for the antivirus market. As per Dataquest, Network Associates captured 50 percent of the global antivirus market followed by Symantec and Trend Micro with 25 percent and seven percent respectively. According to the report, the antivirus market will post dynamic growth over the next five years.

There is much hue and cry about software piracy. Any idea how much it costs the industry every year? A study released by software industry trade associations estimates that 38 percent of new business software installations last year were pirated, costing the industry a loss close to $11 b.

Best Sellers

You want it-they have it! With new software companies mushrooming every single day, the IT user today can take his/her pick. From off-the-shelf packages to customised software, the market is booming with "only me" and "me too" products. What were the hot favourites? In the network software segment, Microsoft's 32-bit GUI masterpiece Windows NT won hands on. The most preferred groupware software was Lotus Notes. Other popularly used software in this segment were Novell Groupwise 5.2 and MS Exchange. While Oracle 8 soared high in the RDBMS category, MS VB 5.0 Professional edition was in premium in the application development tools. As for desktop applications, no surprises here-it was Microsoft products all the way! From MS Office 97 to MS Excel and Word, consumers world over preferred the simple, easy to use software suite, spreadsheet and word processor. While CAD/CAM professionals opted for AutoCAD R14, artists and graphic designers voted for Adobe Pagemaker 6.5.

Now, a peek into the cyberworld. A United Nation study estimates that Net-connected users would rise from 25-30 million in 1998 to more than 200 million by 2000. Another report shows that the Web use in Europe grew to 7.3 percent of the overall world population from 6.6 percent in 1997. While Asia's use increased to 1.1 percent from 0.83 percent in 1997, Web use in Canada dropped from 6.6 percent to 3.8 percent. As for the Net users, US and Canada took up a major chunk with 62 percent of worldwide users, while Asia accounted for only 12 percent.

The figures first: about 2 million items were up for bids at eBay auctions; 8 million people have shopped for discounted books and music so far at Amazon.com. Online brokers currently manage $400 billion in assets. This year, about 100 million shoppers are expected to spend an estimated $15 billion in the cyber marketspace. E-commerce is undoubtedly the buzzword of the year. According to the 1999 Worldwide Web 100 survey, an independent report commissioned by Novell, US dominates E-commerce activity with 17 companies represented in the top 30. The Europeans follow with 11 companies and Asia with two companies within the top 30 places.

It was also the year of Internet mergers, acquisitions and tie-ups. Portal giant Yahoo! Inc. went on a buying spree this year. As part of its plan to expand its Internet services, it bought the online community concern GeoCities Inc., multimedia streaming concern Broadcast.com and the custom-designed software maker Encompass Inc. Similarly, to extend its reach to personal digital assistants and TV-based Net appliances, it snapped up Online Anywhere, a software maker that delivers Web content to non-PC devices, for $80 million in stock. Move on to another Web portal. Lycos acquired several firms over a period of time: homepage builder Tripod, Web information service WhoWhere and Wired Digital. Similarly, America Online acquired Netscape, Net radio firm Spinner.com and music technology firm Nullsoft at about $400 million.

Finally, a peep into the crystal ball. According a report from Gartner Group, "the concept of a monolithic enterprise owning products, services and channels required to address a customer's needs is rapidly being replaced by strategic partnerships, virtual enterprises, and integrated value chains." In the virtual borderless world, the ability to link and plug in new business partners and customers will aid and maintain global competitiveness. Gone are the days where E-commerce was focussed on the final transaction alone. The millennium will usher in a new era where the emphasis will be on collaboration and interaction across the entire supply chain. Gartner Group predicts that 80 percent of applications will be soon based on Internet-derived technologies. In all, IT is no longer a back-room resource providing competitive advantage. It has now extended to a critical front-office resource.