Computers Today June 1998 Key Note: Eight Trends in the IT Industry

June 1998 KEYNOTE

Eight Trends in the IT Industry

The most crucial change that is to come by is that the CPU will become peripheral and the network, central.

By Jnan R. Dash

Last April, I attended a Gartner Group conference in San Diego titled "Gartner Predicts the IT Marketplace". Who can resist such a title? Like me, 2,000 people came. Someone jokingly pointed out, "Look at all these people! Gartner charges top dollars, and then they tell you what you already know. This must be a great business." To be fair to Gartner Group, they did a very good job hosting the conference and there were many interesting sessions. Let me tell you some of the interesting trends discussed at this conference.

Bandwidth Abundance

George Gilder, the well-known author, speaker, and economist, pointed out in his keynote that every era in history has been defined by its abundance and scarcity, and the current Information Age is marked by an abundance of material goods but a scarcity of time. In an age of material abundance, the pressure of scarcity migrates to the residual resources; and that residual resource is time.

The key to business success today is to harness physical limits, such as the speed of light, to extend the biological limit (i.e., the span of life). In business, the life-span is the customer's time, the most precious resource. Just as the real-value of automobiles is found in conjunction with roads, that of computers comes with networks. In the next few years, as bandwidth will continue to double every four months, the most crucial change that will occur is that the CPU will become peripheral and the network, central.

The most common PC will be a digital cellphone "as mobile as your watch and as personal as your wallet." These wireless-networked devices will avail of the Internet which is about saving customer time. If the Net is about saving time, then the television is about wasting time. With TV, people are accustomed to "value-subtracted" advertising; however, with the Internet, customers will soon experience advertising that is responsive to their needs and thus time-saving. Bandwidth will be abundant by the beginning of the next decade.

The Eight Megatrends

Vendor Consolidation: The leading vendors of the years to come will combine internally developed technology and core competencies with best-of-breed offerings from strategic partners to provide complete solutions. Some of the key industry segments are consolidating around a number of megavendors—whether that be at the systems level, with three to five major players going forward, or at the software or middleware level.

The Internet: As the Internet becomes integral part of the overall IT industry, it's going to continue to bleed into the commercial side, but there will be huge opportunities in the consumer side, as well as the electronic commerce market. A recent report from the US Government said that Internet commerce will reach $300 billion by 2000.

Network Computing: Although in 1997 network computing was at the same evolutionary stage as was client/server (C/S) computing in 1991, NC will engulf the market more rapidly than did traditional C/S. Gartner Group foresees "pure play" NCs will have limited penetration.

Java: Java will not offer any breakthroughs in portability. Though it will become increasingly important, Java will just not be the 'silver bullet'.

Universal "plug and play" software components: The concept of multivendor, multiplatform component revolution using component libraries is not realistic; however, a more limited single vendor vision will be viable. Oracle's NCA (Network Computing Architecture), Microsoft's DNA (Distributed Network Architecture) and IBM's CB (Component Broker) were cited as more realistic offerings.

Bandwidth will increase exponentially: Bandwidth growth will average 30 to 40 percent through 2002; however, rethinking application design will be as critical as physical network expansion. It is much more complex than simply opening the pipe and pushing data through. The trick is to intelligently combine and integrate applications and data across the network and to optimise the resources. Otherwise, it would be like using a straw against a solid orange to drink the juice.

Hardware economics: Hardware economics will change radically. The price-cut seen in the consumer market will begin spread to commercial market, and some vendors will be unable to compete. The biggest players in the market, such as HP, Compaq, and Dell are upping the ante.

IS Organisation: Fundamental transformation will occur to IS organisations in large enterprises. About 75 percent of IS organisations will shed their traditional role as direct providers of Infotech service and refocus their mission toward the brokering of Infotech resources.

The Changing Landscape

Are these trends a big surprise? Perhaps not. But many Infotech executives and users have a tendency to live in a "self denial" mode, sticking to the dictum, "what works today will be OK for tomorrow". The changing landscape of the information technology field demands close attention to these trends, so that companies can sustain their growth in the twenty-first century.

The writer is vice-president, Advanced Technology and Strategy, Oracle Corp., USA.

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