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June 16-30, 2000 TELECOM |
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With the launch of new network technologies, the GSM world is easing itself into 3G as part of the evolution in mobile communications. By Ripudaman Lamba
But the pace has quickened in Asia where, in about six months, most countries will be active in 3G. Manufacturers in Japan, China and South Korea including other areas in the region are poised to use 3G to gain a stake in international markets. The wireless revolution is allowing these countries to take a short cut into the wireless future. For example, in the space of just a few years, China has evolved from being a country where few people had access to a phone to being the largest mobile market after America. Now China is gearing up to embrace 3G, and will be among the first countries to introduce 3G mobile phones. In most developed markets we can expect to see a steady evolution to 3G and the mobile information society as operators seek to enhance and protect their investment with core evolution from GPRS to UMTS and global IP mobility services, by giving unlimited access to communication and information whenever required. Revolution or Evolution? In Japan, the move to 3G is likely to be more of a revolution-albeit velvet gloved. While most Asian countries have GSM technology, which is evolving towards 3G, Japan is an exception where established operators using their own, unique technologies have led the market. Thus the road map will be very different than in the GSM world. There is a big boom in Japan for 3G, and operators, including NTT DoCoMo and Japan Telecom Group, are very heavily pushing the launch of 3G networks for later 2001. Japan is also actively participating in the development of 3G and moves for a global standardisation. But as network opening is about one year earlier than global standardisation bodies expect, operators have to be very strict in pushing global solutions, such as open interfaces and functionality supporting roaming, onto their networks. Japan's third strongest cellular operator group, DDI/IDO, has just launched the Japanese version of IS95, and it has gained reasonable market share with a very good basic sales argument-voice quality. However, the global harmonisation process in third generation radio access (WCDMA and cdma2000) and core networks (IS41 and GSM) may open a new evolution path for operators. This evolution towards 3G is in part still based on using the operator's own technology. For example, Japan's biggest mobile phone company NTT DoCoMo recently released I-mode, a version of mobile packet data traffic, to its PDC network. I-mode has been enormously successful in a very short time and there are already many content providers in the I-mode. In the first four months of its release it garnered one million subscribers, and expects a few million within just half a year. Towards Long-term Success However, many operators and manufacturers from Japan are now represented in the WAP Forum and other international bodies, believing global and long-term success is based on global standards, like the success of GSM. Nokia has played a strong role in bridging the gap between the mobile telecom industries in Japan and Europe. And Nokia is promoting the standardisation of technology and defining 3G system concepts, such as core network architectures, IP, WAP, Symbian and Bluetooth, in Japan and across Asia so that as many global drivers as possible come to be accepted by as many markets as possible. Nokia is well positioned as a third-generation supplier, and is ready to begin commercial UMTS in Japan and Europe in 2001-02. The initial evolution towards third-generation in Japan may be very much voice-driven because capacity has been the driver. Also voice could lead the way because the terminal industry may not produce very solid services for multimedia so early. For example, cameras or good browsers in terminals are necessary from the beginning and need to become more common. These services will quickly follow due to harmonisation, and the evolution to 3G thus will become very much data driven. Therefore, even if the network technology does exist it may be that the rest of the technology value chain does not. Catch-up depends on operators waking up the content and service providers. All GSM operators in the region that have started in the last 10 years are interested in the evolution to 3G as are active newcomers. In many cases it is the early bird that catches the worm, but sometimes new technologies and new services have been launched too early for the markets to accept them. In 3G, timing and the operator's business plan plays a major role in success. Whatever happens in the mobile data world, things are moving at a fast pace and business is bound to be brisk in Asia. Ripudaman Lamba is Business Development Manager, Nokia Networks |
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As
Europe looks forward to make a transition to third generation (3G) mobile
and the creation of the Mobile Information Society, Asia is following its
own road map and is set to leapfrog into the wireless future. With the
launch of new network technologies, such as HSCSD and GPRS, value-added
service platforms like WAP, and new enabling technologies including EPOC,
Symbian and Bluetooth, the GSM world is easing itself into 3G as part of
the natural evolution in mobile communications.
