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October, 2001 TELECOM |
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The 3G radio communications technology promises high-speed access to Net-based services from every mobile device. The question with operators and consumers is more of 'when' than 'whether'. By Sudhir Chowdhary Mobile telephony allowed us to talk on the move. The Net and its associated technologies turned huge amounts of raw data into accessible information and useful services. Now these two trends are converging in 3G, the third generation of mobile services. The third-generation wireless technology will see a migration to packet-switched networks at high-speed data rates. Expect highly efficient transmission of digitised voice, video and multimedia at data rates up to and possibly higher than 2 Mbps, offering a consistent set of services to mobile handheld computer and phone users no matter where they may be located in the world.
The first telecommunications standard (1G) used analogue electronics technology for transmission. The advent of digital technology took place with 2G, which introduced voice calls and new services like SMS (short messaging service) and even limited data capabilities. 3G is the next step, going beyond 2G standards such as GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) and CDMA (Code-Division Multiple Access) One. Key features of 3G include:
These features open up possibilities like having small pocket terminals with global roaming capability that also run Internet and other multimedia applications. Several services and devices on which they may run are in the pipeline.
The shift to 3G services is also causing a revolution in the underlying telecommunications system as phone companies embrace the Internet and further integrate their wireless and traditional fixed-wire networks. This is likely to change the very business model of telecommunications-operators would move from billing customers based on network-connected time billing to one based on the volume of (data) information sent. More services Over the next two years there will be 600-800 million mobile phone users around the world, predict market researchers. These users would certainly clamour for new services like being able to connect their mobile devices to their employer's computer network, use the Internet or private intranets, use their mobile phones for videoconferencing, or send and receive high-quality pictures over wireless networks. This cannot happen on a broad scale until today's wireless networks are made more powerful. Pankaj Vaish, general manager, Telecom Practice, HCL Perot Systems, says these services are possible only with improved bandwidth. He also points out that technical features like QoS (quality of service) need to be enhanced and made more predictable. The capacity of networks should also be expanded. Also, national wireless networks will have to connect better with their global counterparts. All these would require networks to move to a new global technology platform. There will also be new devices in the garb of cell phones and personal digital assistants (PDAs). These devices will be online all the time, that is, in a 3G world users won't need to dial up to retrieve e-mails, multimedia attachments and other data. The 3G technology promises to open up a whole lot of anytime, anywhere services. You will be able to make payments for everyday services over a 3G phone. You could then pay through a variety of payment options. News providers could offer constantly updated news, music companies could offer previews of music video clips and banks could offer instant access to share market quotes directly on your device. One area where 3G is expected to make the maximum impact is access to corporate information. Let's assume you are at a site assessing a customer's needs. You would be able to close out fast by providing a quote on sale right away-just enter the details on your mobile device, log into your company's intranet and upload the data. Within a few seconds a quote is e-mailed directly to the customer with a copy forwarded to you. According to market analysts, such services are expected to generate $30 billion (approximately Rs 1,44,000 crore) by 2005. Take another example of location-based services. Using information about a mobile phone user's physical location, it will be possible to offer new services. These could include helping a user in finding nearby restaurants, shops and gas filling stations, providing tourist information, checking a local telephone directory and accessing local weather forecasts.
Another application could be even more vital: locating a user in an emergency. According to market analysts, location-based services alone are expected to be worth $5 billion (around Rs 24,000) by the year 2005. Telecom service operators are clamouring to offer value-added services because they are sure subscribers will like the way 3G can make their lives easier. Says Vinay Misra, vice-president, marketing and sales, Alcatel India, "Market forces are pulling down the prices of voice (communications), which is the major revenue earner at the moment. In order to overcome this, one needs to provide value-added services." Value compulsion One of the key drivers towards 3G systems is mobility. People worldwide are increasingly demanding information on their fingertips while on the move. In India alone the penetration of cellular services has seen a rapid growth in the last financial year. The year-on-year increase for the cellular services segment has been above 70 per cent, with the number of subscribers crossing the 4-million mark. The number of mobile subscribers in Europe is expected to increase to 350 million by 2005, while, according to a study by the Strategis Group, the number for Asia could be 216 million by 2007. This would represent a 10-fold increase from the current number of subscribers. Meanwhile, operators are feeling the pinch of reduction in ARPU (average revenue per user) for voice transmission. With the demand for voice-based services nearing saturation, ARPU should fall further. Telecom service providers believe this trend of falling revenues can however be offset through growth in the mobile data market, as long as businesses and consumers like the idea of receiving and paying for value-added information. Getting to 3G Existing 2G GSM networks can be enhanced to 3G standard, initially by using intermediate technologies like GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) and EDGE (Enhanced Data GSM Environment). GPRS requires minor adjustments in GSM hardware, though considerable software upgradation is called for, to provide speeds of up to 175 Kbps. When new infrastructure becomes available, networks will be able to migrate to WCDMA (wireless CDMA) systems. The first country where these services will be rolled out would possibly be Japan. NTT DoCoMo is scheduled to launch FOMA, its 3G service, this quarter, with Western Europe following in 2002. DoCoMo carried out a pilot run in April 2001. Vodafone is set to follow soon; it has been testing its 3G service in the United Kingdom. Both operators have suggested that the maximum speed available for these services would be 384 Kbps. The US is about a year behind Europe due to the existence of different technologies. Meanwhile, the Indian government is planning to offer 3G licences-after the grant of licences at least two years will be required before implementation. This is because cellular phone services in India are not very old. Says Bharti Enterprises chairman Sunil B. Mittal, "Cellular operators in the country are currently investing in infrastructure to gradually migrate from GSM to GPRS. However, over the next 3 to 4 years there will be an inherent need for faster and richer content through wireless Internet, which will be fulfilled by the 3G technology." There are, however, worries that the rate of implementation and acceptance of 3G technology may not justify the huge investments needed for the necessary licensing and infrastructure. Ideally operators would like to roll out the service fast. But the acceptance of the technology would depend on the promised data rate, simultaneous voice/data support and the much-hyped wireless applications. And of course, unless there is useful content, adaptability will suffer and it's quite possible that we may see a repeat of what happened to WAP services not so long ago. |
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