June 1, 1998

Despite its thin majority, the Government has an ambitious business schedule for the budget session. Its weapons? Nuclear euphoria and a confused Opposition.

By Javed M Ansari

No government likes the budget session of Parliament. The Finance Bill's passage is a nightmare. It takes but one successful cut motion -- a demand that the budget outlay for a particular department or ministry be cut by even Re 1 -- for a government to fall. Certainly, this is the last thing the BJP-led Government would want. It barely has a majority in the Lok Sabha, having won a confidence vote in the previous session by just 13 votes.

Even so, the ruling coalition is relatively well-placed for the budget session, beginning on May 27. The five nuclear tests in Pokhran have yielded it megatonnes of confidence. The Opposition is somewhat on the backfoot, realising the Government has grabbed the political initiative with the blasts. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee hopes to capitalise on this confusion in the opposition ranks. His Government has an impressive agenda for Parliament. Aside from the Union and railway budgets, some 25 bills will be introduced in the coming session. These include four bills seeking to amend the Constitution and 10 seeking to ratify ordinances issued earlier.

The planned constitutional amendments include the Women's Reservation Bill -- aimed at setting aside a third of all legislative seats for women -- and a bill to facilitate fresh delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies on the basis of the 1991 census. There is also legislation pertaining to Prasar Bharati, the Lok Pal and electoral reforms.

The Government's plans would seem rather ambitious. Constitution amendment bills require the support of two-thirds of the Lok Sabha. The BJP-led alliance is about 90 MPs short of this figure. Even lesser bills like the one dealing with Prasar Bharati -- which would require only a simple majority in the Lok Sabha -- could get the Government into trouble. After all, the Rajya Sabha too has to pass them and the ruling coalition does not command a majority there.

Where numbers fail, strategy begins. The Government -- the BJP, really -- has embarked on a twin-track approach for the budget session. Senior leaders are speaking of the need for consensus. Other voices are a trifle more shrill, putting the onus -- and plain pressure -- on the Opposition.

As Madan Lal Khurana, the parliamentary affairs minister, has it, "The constitutional amendments can only go through if the Opposition cooperates." His Minister of State Ram Naik sounds less conciliatory: "We are prepared to let the Opposition have its say provided the Government ultimately has its way. But if they are bent on making things difficult, the people will not forgive them."

Similarly, Pramod Mahajan, political adviser to the prime minister, argues, "We have shown our intent to fulfil our promises. It's for the Opposition to weigh the cost and benefit of opposing us blindly." On his part, Vajpayee has met Sharad Pawar and Manmohan Singh, opposition leaders in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha respectively. He plans to put to good use an upcoming all-party special briefing on the nuclear tests.

Home Minister L.K. Advani has also convened a cross-party meeting to discuss the Electoral Reforms Bill. Khurana himself has been interacting furiously with a variety of parliamentarians. Information and Broadcasting Minister Sushma Swaraj is in the eye of a storm due to her contentious Prasar Bharati legislation. She too has called a meeting the day before Parliament opens.

Meanwhile, the Opposition continues to think in many minds. Within the Congress, Pawar speaks softly: "I don't foresee much of a problem. There is no immediate issue on which there can be a major battle between the Government and the Opposition." Yet, Arjun Singh ("The Congress must assert itself"), P. Shiv Shankar and K. Natwar Singh are liaising with UF leaders and even speaking of a "coordination committee" -- an entity which proved beyond the UF and Congress when they spent almost two years (1996-98) together on the treasury benches.

The United Front (UF) is also moving into the combat mode. The Left and the Samajwadi Party want an "all-out assault" on the Government. H.D. Deve Gowda, UF chairman, has already accused the BJP of politicising the nuclear issue. The fireworks could begin when the post of Deputy Speaker, still vacant, is sought to be filled. As the main opposition party, the Congress is determined to demand the post for itself, hopefully with UF support. That's when Vajpayee may realise there is life -- and strife -- after Pokhran.

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