If there were jitters in the UF, the Congress wasn't very happily placed either. On November 17, Kesri addressed a thinly attended meeting of the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) where he struck a hostile note: "The question is emotional and we cannot take it lightly. Many names have come in the report -- the DMK leader, V.P. Singh, etc. Efforts are on to make the Jain report irrelevant, but we will not allow it." However, behind the aggression, Kesri hoped that the Congress MPs would be disinclined to face an election and opt for compromise. Certainly, five CWC members -- Tariq Anwar, Pawar, R.K. Dhawan, Scindia and Pranab Mukherjee -- lobbied hard to get MPs to show restraint. However, the results showed the bulk of MPs from the south, Gujarat, Orissa and West Bengal asking the leadership to take matters to their logical conclusion. Only members from Maharashtra and the north were muted in their aggression.

For Kesri, the situation went completely out of control when the CPP executive met twice on November 20 and without hesitation demanded the "immediate ouster of DMK from the Central Government and further follow-up action on the basis of the findings of the Jain Commission". Some members like Sharad Patnaik from Orissa even felt that the removal of the DMK wasn't enough. He demanded the imposition of President's rule in Tamil Nadu and action against Chidambaram and V.P. Singh. The CPP was egged on by a phalanx of ex-MPs like Arjun Singh, Kamal Nath, Rangarajan Kumaramangalam and Mani Shankar Aiyar, who are anxious for fresh elections and a chance to resume their seats in the Lok Sabha.

At this stage, a cornered Kesri was left with very little option but to tail the pack. At the CWC meeting on November 20, he fell back to buying time in the hope that some rescue formula would miraculously appear and avert the fall of the Gujral Government necessitating a mid-term poll. His supporters first attempted to divert discussion to other "possible avenues" of action, including the formation of a fresh government by Gujral. Subsequently, when Prasada demanded that the aicc president go to Rashtrapati Bhavan forthwith and withdraw support to the Government, Mukherjee suggested the party proceed "systematically".

Finally, when it was decided that Kesri would write to Gujral immediately to drop the DMK ministers or face the withdrawal of support, Scindia spent time quibbling over the words of the letter. The Maharaja of Gwalior had to incur the displeasure of a hawkish K. Vijayabhaskara Reddy, who managed to shout down the Kesri loyalists. Finally, Oscar Fernandes was sent off with the letter, but even this was sought to be kept under wraps.

The next day, Gujral reciprocated Kesri's prevarication by not sending the UF's defiant reply, simply because the Congress had not specified a time frame. Like his greatest supporter, the prime minister too is hoping for a weekend miracle and is justifying the delay to his ministers as a way of ensuring a full debate on the Jain report.

As the Gujral Government enters the last days of its life, that debate may not take the form it was intended to. Far from discussing the circumstances that led to Rajiv's murder, the Lok Sabha could witness ugly exchanges between a resurgent Congress and an indignant UF. "Fighting the Congress comes to us naturally," said Janata Dal President Sharad Yadav. But it may not come to that.

If Gujral "walks" before he is given out, President K.R. Narayanan could begin the onerous task of exploring other possibilities. This could include either a Congress-led coalition or a Congress-dominated formation headed by a Congress clone, maybe Gujral again or even Moopanar. Or else, Atal Bihari Vajpayee may feel sUFficiently emboldened to replicate Kalyan Singh's enterprise in Uttar Pradesh. With 42 months of its natural life still left, the 11th Lok Sabha has enough reason to avoid facing an electorate that may not view the uncertainties of the past 18 months too charitably. A week is a very long time in politics. Particularly the politics of shifting coalitions.

The Countdown    Leaders in Disarray      Wish List of Parties
Coalition that Works

Write to us | Subscriptions

© Living Media India Ltd