March 2, 1998
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POLL 98 Battle For The South Be it the Congress resurgence, the BJP's ambitions or the UF's very existence -- the South holds the key to their future The capital of India being Delhi, and this being an election to decide who will be sworn in as prime minister next month, it is easy to take an excessively cow belt-centric view of national politics. After all, till the '80s it was conventional wisdom that the electoral future of India would be settled in the Aryavarta. National politics, or so it was imagined, stopped at the Vindhyas. After that it was the "south", that amorphous land mass which loved being contrarian. The 129 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala were consistent in endorsing the Congress or its allies till 1996. In 1977, when the Congress was reduced to zero in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Indira Gandhi and her allies won 121 seats from the four southern states. The Janata Party wave did not cross the Deccan plateau. The trend was repeated in 1980, though in '84 N.T. Rama Rao's TDP resisted the post-assassination sympathy wave to emerge as the largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha with 30 seats. In '89 and '91, it was business as usual with the Congress and allies winning 121 and 103 seats respectively. It was the 1996 election that first witnessed an all-round reversal. Following its disastrous alliance with Jayalalitha's aiadmk in Tamil Nadu, the Congress and its allies were reduced to 47 seats and the constituents of the United Front (UF) led the way with a tally of 71. The BJP, which dominated the north and the west, had to be content with just six seats. In Election '98, it is the south that holds the key. First, the outcome in the four states will determine whether the Congress can regain its status as the largest single party in the Lok Sabha. Second, to have a realistic chance of forming a government at the Centre, the BJP and its allies must make an impressive showing -- its tally from the south must cross 25. Finally, the very existence of the UF depends on its ability to hold on to its position. If it is to bargain for a foothold in a future dispensation, it must prevent a Congress and BJP onrush in the south. So overwhelming is the passion, evocation and sensation of politics south of the Vindhyas that even mere impressions are a challenge to the most analytical mind. TAMIL NADU
The election's been something of a two-horse race. The third front led by the Congress is not being taken seriously by even Congressmen. This despite Sonia Gandhi effectively launching her political career with the emotional meeting at Sriperumbudur -- and evocative slogans like "Welcome Indira's daughter-in-law. Give a stable government to India".
Yet, when the campaign was still young, the United Front (UF) shot itself in the foot. It occupied itself with some vicious infighting. The CPI(M) sought to contest six seats and, though it has scaled down its ambitions, is taking on DMK-TMC nominees in Madurai and Chennai. Miffed at not being given a single seat, the Janata Dal (JD) boycotted the launch of the UF's campaign in Chennai. Ironically, the function was addressed by the JD's Prime Minister I.K. Gujral. After these comic cameos came the real drama. Karunanidhi, a successful career as a film dialogue writer behind him, made liberal use of his vast reservoirs of sarcasm and innuendo. For one, he refused to call the AIADMK the All India Anna DMK, claiming he did not want to "insult Anna, founder of the DMK, by linking his name to Jayalalitha's party". Rather than speak of his Government's achievements, if any, over the past 20 months, Karunanidhi focused on the misdeeds of the previous regime, led by Jayalalitha. He made a habit of quoting copiously from embarrassing court judgements. A case in point was the Madras High Court's direction that Jayalalitha and two industrialists make good a loss of Rs 38 crore suffered by the state in a disinvestment case. Incidentally, the case was filed by Subramanian Swamy, now the AIADMK-BJP front's candidate in Madurai. Karunanidhi was also quick to ridicule the AIADMK-BJP alliance's "stability" card. As a DMK slogan went: "Not only a stable government, but also a corruption-free government". While the DMK was quick to discount any major impact of the recent bomb blasts in Coimbatore, Jayalalitha's final campaign speeches were definitely more aggressive: "Enough of Karunanidhi's rule and enough of people's deaths." In some ways, both the DMK and AIADMK are bracing themselves for a battle ahead of the elections. Jayalalitha has been telling her party workers that once the BJP comes to power at the Centre, it will dismiss the DMK Government. Karunanidhi, on the other hand, realises the UF may not be as strong in the next Lok Sabha and so wants to repeat his grand triumph of 1996 (when his alliance won all 39 seats) to ensure himself a greater bargaining role. There's safety in numbers reckons Karunanidhi. He'll soon know if the voters agree. --K.M. Thomas KARNATAKA
Not everybody is inclined to agree. Certainly not Jayanti, a film star with 300 films in seven south Indian languages behind her. Jayanti is the Lok Shakti candidate from Chikballapur, hoping to unseat R.L. Jalappa, who defected from the JD to the Congress a week before the nominations. As her Tata Sumo reaches Madhugir village, slogans rend the air: "Jayantiavarige jayavagali, Ataljivarige pradhan mantri (Let Jayanti get victory, let Atalji become prime minister)." It's heady stuff, heady enough for a local farmer to scoff at the Sonia factor: "She's nice to look at but it is Atalji who is the great leader. And the votes will go to him." The enthusiasm is similar in Gulbarga, as Hegde's Tata Estate enters the town, to cheers and drum beats. People question him about his last-minute alliance with the BJP. Hegde reminds them it was 19 BJP MLAs who helped him become chief minister for the first time in 1983. The coup de grace is delivered by Abdul Samad Siddiqui, Gulbarga's MP aspirant and Lok Shakti's only Muslim nominee: "I don't blame her (Sonia) for what she reads. She only reads what her ghost-writers write -- and ghosts can't speak directly." Clearly, the BJP-Lok Shakti alliance is buoyant. Even if it does not emerge the largest Lok Sabha group from the state, it hopes to make vital gains. In 1996, the JD won 34.9 per cent of the popular vote, the Congress 30 per cent and the BJP 25 per cent. This won the BJP six seats. This time the party has realistic chance in 11 seats -- including Udupi, which it lost to the Congress' Oscar Fernandes by a mere 2,300 votes or 0.04 per cent in 1996. In Tumkur, S. Mallikarjuniah -- deputy speaker of the 10th Lok Sabha (1991-96) -- hopes to regain the seat he lost in the previous election. Even in Kanakapura, H.D. Kumaraswamy, Deve Gowda's son and sitting MP, faces a formidable challenge from the BJP. If the son is facing hard times, the father -- till a year ago the prime minister of the world's largest democracy -- is even more glum. Voting trends in Hassan seem to suggest that Deve Gowda has encountered a poor response in at least three of eight assembly segments. Even his kinsmen -- the Vokkaligas who comprise 16 per cent of the electorate -- appear to be unhappy with him. However, the "humble farmer" remains belligerent as ever: "Don't run me down. It's you media people who say the JD is out of the picture. But you wait and see, we will be forming the government again." Notwithstanding such optimism, Gowda couldn't impress even one voter in Chikmagalur. After listening to the former prime minister speak -- and accuse the electronic media of ignoring "people who wear adda panche (dhoti)" -- a voter made a most cryptic remark: "Deve Gowda has no work except criticising Hegde and journalists who don't write in his favour." --Stephen David ANDHRA PRADESH
Yet, despite his efforts, Naidu is still unsure of whether he'll win. There is much against him. He has reversed several populist schemes of predecessor NTR, and Sonia Gandhi has activated the Congress with five election trips and 12 public meetings. Regional Congress chieftains such as K. Vijayabhaskara Reddy (Kurnool), N. Janardhana Reddy (Bapatla) and Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy (Cuddapah) have been busy in their constituencies -- telling their voters that Naidu's much vaunted developmental projects, such as Janmabhoomi, were mere public relations exercises and only served to give contracts to TDP supporters. As if the reneging on three of NTR's poll promises in 1994 -- prohibition, rice at Rs 2 a kilo and subsidised power -- wasn't bad enough, there is outrage over the suicide of over 100 cotton farmers since December 1997. The farmers suffered the twin devastation of a failed crop and loan repayments. As Vijayashanti, the feisty film actress who has been one of the BJP's key crowd-pullers, thundered, "These were not suicides but government murders." Naidu, of course, claims to have taken remedial measures and helped the distressed farmers and their families. As he insists, "This election is a clear referendum on my governance. We are getting a pro-performance, pro-administration vote." He is also hoping the years he has spent building a staggeringly extensive party network will pay. Confusing a straightforward bipolar battle is the BJP-TDP(NTR) alliance. Lakshmi Parvati, NTR's second wife, led her party, the TDP(NTR), to 11 per cent of the popular vote in 1996, while the BJP won 6 per cent. This time the two are together and, in theory, start with an impressive 17 per cent base. Admittedly, much of this base may have withered away, especially in the lady's case. However, there is a surge of sorts for the BJP, particularly in the Telengana region -- the party has promised statehood to this backward belt -- and among the youth. This may not translate into seats for the BJP but it will certainly mean more votes. The question everybody is asking is: Whose votes is the BJP taking away, the Congress' or the TDP's? The Congress' Reddy troika seem as clueless as Naidu. --Amarnath K. Menon KERALA
Just a few yards away, a local CPI(M) leader is addressing a meeting of the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which his party heads. He too is making a poll issue of Yankee imperialism, an issue which has served his party well. During the Gulf War in 1991, the CPI(M) had exploited Muslim sympathies for Saddam Hussain to win district council elections. As always, the wooing of minorities -- Muslims and Christians form 44 per cent of Kerala's electorate -- has been fervid. The Congress, which heads the United Democratic Front (UDF), has had a headstart. Aside from the Muslim League, its long-term ally, it also won over smaller Islamic groups like the Indian National league (INL) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP), led by fundamentalist cleric Abdul Nasser Madani. Chief Minister E.K. Nayanar did not exactly help matters for the ruling LDF by terming Muslim-dominated Malappuram district "Kutti (mini) Pakistan". He later claimed to have been misquoted but the damage had been done. Soon after, E.M.S. Namboodiripad, the doyen of communism in Kerala, provoked the Muslim League by calling it a descendant of M.A. Jinnah's party. The reaction was sharp. To Vayalar Ravi, the Congress' state unit chief, "EMS was talking with the RSS tongue." The politics of Kerala's Christians is less complex. They are the Congress' backbone. The arrival of Sonia Gandhi, a Christian herself, has only strengthened the community's bond with the party. Factor Sonia is expected to help the Congress in central and south Kerala. Next, there's the anti-incumbency factor which the Congress hopes to gain from. Finally, there's history: the UDF has beaten the LDF in every Lok Sabha election apart from the ones in 1967 and 1980. Even in otherwise disastrous 1977, it won each of Kerala's 20 seats. "That will not be the case this time," says V.S. Achuthanandan, CPI(M) politburo member. If this is true, it is bad news for K. Karunakaran, the former Congress chief minister, who is seeking to unseat the CPI's K.V. Surendranath in Thiruvananthapuram. At 80, Karunakaran has the passion of a tyro. He may have three years of his Rajya Sabha term left but as he says, "The Rajya Sabha is for lazy self-seekers. I'm a fighter." Gushes an acolyte: "He has even forsaken his favourite Mercedes and is travelling in an Ambassador for the first time in 25 years." The Congress will need to do more than just change cars to take on the organisational might of the CPI(M). In 1996, the UDF and LDF shared the 20 seats equally. In 1998, it should be the same, give or take one or two seats -- one or two which could mean the difference between the treasury benches and the opposition. --M.G. Radhakrishnan |
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He's 73 but he's tireless. Ever since the
campaign began on February 2, Muthuvel Karunanidhi, Tamil Nadu's chief minister, has been
a busy man, addressing three to five meetings a day. His one-point agenda: criticise J.
Jayalalitha before a meeting, after a meeting, during a meeting and at any time in
between. Indeed, Karunanidhi, star campaigner for the ruling DMK-Tamil Maanila Congress
(TMC) alliance, is difficult to match in the rhetoric trade. Only Jayalalitha of the
AIADMK-BJP alliance comes close. 
Initially, matters seemed to be going
smoothly for the DMK-TMC combine. There has been no serious charges of misgovernance
against the state administration. Rather, former chief minister Jayalalitha was on the
backfoot, facing numerous corruption charges along with 16 others who were her ministers
between 1991 and 1996. Further, a split had weakened the AIADMK. Finally, Jayalalitha's
decision to align with the BJP had given the DMK another opportunity to assert its
pro-minority, Dravidian credentials. 
In theory, the battle for Karnataka is a microcosm
of the battle for India. The Janata Dal (JD) is ruling the state and has a former prime
minister, H.D. Deve Gowda, contesting from Hassan. The Congress is the traditional force,
itching to stage a comeback. The BJP is the resurgent party and -- in alliance with
Ramakrishna Hegde's Lok Shakti -- poised to make a critical jump. In reality, the story's
somewhat different. The JD is fighting with its back to the wall. Actually, both the BJP
and Congress seem set to upstage it. 
The Congress is relying on the charisma of
the Gandhi dynasty. Sonia Gandhi has visited the state three times in two months and the
Congress is targetting Karnataka's 3.34 crore Muslim voters -- 10 per cent of the
electorate. It may be having some impact. As Abdul Samad, a voter in Bangalore North, from
where former Union minister C.K. Jaffer Sharief is contesting, says, "He (Sharief)
has hardly visited us but we will vote for him. Sonia is a good choice and we should have
a Gandhi family representative at the Centre." 
When it comes to peddling dreams, Naravarapalli
Chandrababu Naidu, Andhra Pradesh's 47-year-old chief minister, is no ordinary salesman --
he owns the whole supermarket. As he faces the most enigmatic election of his life, the
technology-friendly chief minister -- "the Bill Gates of Indian politics", as
somebody put it -- has been darting around his state, promising all things to all men. In
one month, he addressed over 200 meetings. Nobody else has come even close to matching his
punishing schedule. Actress Jayaprada, chief of the TDP women's wing, too had a statewide
itinerary but cancelled many meetings when she realised she just couldn't cope. 
This is Chullikkara, a village deep in
Kasargode constituency. A small crowd, largely Muslim, is listening to the Congress leader
A.K. Antony. He quivers with anger as he assails Bill Clinton's Iraq policy: "It is
high time we thwarted America's attempts to pose as the global policeman." The crowd
claps. It would. Antony knows that war clouds over West Asia worry Kasargode, which has
sent many workers to the region. 
