The Nation: Courting Trouble

Learning no lessons from the past, the party begins seat-sharing talks with the BSP for the November polls. Though willing, Kanshi Ram is already dictating terms.

Less than 15 per cent of the country's electorate will vote during the November 25 elections to four state assemblies, but for both the ruling BJP at the Centre and the main opposition, it has the implications of a referendum. Despite public assertions to the contrary, BJP leaders admit that the party's fortunes at the Centre would depend to a large extent on its ability to retain Delhi and Rajasthan and wrest Madhya Pradesh (Mizoram is the fourth state going to polls). For the Congress, wresting Delhi and Rajasthan and retaining Madhya Pradesh are equally essential to prove that after Sonia Gandhi's takeover, the party is no more a pushover.

However, to ensure this, the party has had to swallow its pride. Just two months ago at Pachmarhi, the party had decided to go it alone in the polls. Last week, expediency got the better of her, as Sonia dumped the Pachmarhi declaration and asked Arjun Singh and Ajit Jogi to reopen talks with Bahujan Samaj Party's (BSP) Kanshi Ram. In fact, Sonia loyalists would be willing to strike up an alliance with anyone to keep the BJP out. Says Sheila Dixit, the DPCC chief: "Communal forces have to be defeated at all costs. What happened in 1993 will not be allowed to happen in 1998." She explained that in the elections to the Delhi Assembly then, the Congress lost 22 seats because of a split in anti-BJP votes.

GIVE AND TAKE

Madhya Pradesh: Congress ready to concede 35-40 of the 320 seats to the BSP and others. Kanshi Ram demands 60.

Delhi: Congress willing to share seven-eight of the 70 seats with the BSP and the RLM.

Rajasthan: Riding on the anti-incumbency factor, Congress keen to go it alone. At the most five seats for others, including the Left and the Janata Dal.

Mizoram: Congress to contest all the 60 seats in the Assembly.

Clearly, Sonia wants to make sure that does not happen again. Not the least in Madhya Pradesh, the only major state where the party is in power. Therefore, the need for a new ally. But just as the Arjun-Ajit duo were discussing a tie-up with the BSP, state Chief Minister Digvijay Singh threw a spanner in the works by announcing that the Congress will have no truck with anyone. Sources said he was merely expressing his resentment over the fact that the task of negotiations was given to the two who were openly working against him. But Digivijay was quick to clarify that the final decision would be left to "Madam". Which was as good as saying that talks would continue.

But wooing the self-proclaimed messiah of Dalits is no easy task and Kanshi Ram has already begun to dictate terms. His party, he said, wanted a similar understanding in Rajasthan and Delhi as well. No problem, was the word from 10 Janpath. According to sources in the Congress, the party is willing to set aside 35-40 seats in Madhya Pradesh for the BSP and seven-eight seats in Delhi for BSP and like-minded parties. In Rajasthan, the tie-up talks will depend on the fate of former Union minister Buta Singh, whose request for re-entry into the Congress is pending with Sonia. In Madhya Pradesh, the modalities of an alliance are still being worked out as the BSP led in four assembly segments in the 1998 polls and came second after the BJP in 20 other seats. Therefore, its claim cannot be more than 24. Kanshi Ram wants 60 seats, but may eventually settle for less.

Congress has so far kept aloof from Mulayam-Laloo Yadav's Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM). UPCC chief Salman Khurshid, in fact, almost queered the pitch for any future alliance by calling Mulayam the "new Jinnah" because he advocated help to Pakistan. Amar Singh, Mulayam's Man Friday, was quick to hit back, saying, "The BJP Government in Uttar Pradesh is the offshoot of the BSP-Congress alliance." The RLM may not be capable of doing much damage to the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, but even Congressmen concede its capacity to create trouble in Delhi in case of no agreement.

Sonia's rivals in the party, including Sharad Pawar, are waiting for just such an eventuality to strike back. A defeat in Delhi, where party leaders are optimistic and the surrender of Madhya Pradesh would be a blow to her image and nearly strip her of her charisma. That explains why the Congress has embarked on the onerous task of wooing Kanshi Ram -- fickle and unpredictable as he is.