Gujarat: Divided We Stand

Gujarat
Divided We Stand

The Congress ends months of speculation by finally bringing down the Vaghela government. But to keep the BJP out, it will prop up the RJP under a new leader.

It may well have been one of those rare occasions when sweets leave a bitter taste in the mouth. Especially when 1,000 kg has been ordered, and the reason to party is suddenly not there. On October 20, Shankersinh Vaghela, the Gujarat chief minister, had made preparations for grand celebrations three days later to mark the first anniversary of his government, but the same evening, the Congress, which propped up his minority government in office, finally withdrew support.

The bad news came when Vaghela was in Delhi, attending the first national convention of his Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP). Back at the Congress party office in Ahmedabad, after informing governor Krishna Pal Singh of the decision to withdraw support to the RJP government, a jubilant C.D. Patel, state Congress chief, said: "The decision was overdue. The Vaghela government had become a burden on the Congress." Suddenly, festivities were the last thing on Vaghela's mind.

Yet, grim as that may seem, it is still not all over for him. For one, even in the din of the drums that greeted Patel and state legislature party leader Amarsinh Chaudhury at the party office when they returned from the Raj Bhavan, one thing was clear: adequate room had been left for a patch-up between the Congress and the RJP. The governor's rather controversial decision to give Vaghela over a week to prove his majority -- despite the chief minister seeking dissolution of the house -- ensured that. But a clearer picture emerged when, responding to journalists' queries about the possibility of the Congress extending support to an RJP government without Vaghela, Chaudhury said: "We would consider it, but the proposal should come from them." Vaghela, for his part, says that the proposal should come from the Congress -- after it rescinds its decision to withdraw support.

That even Vaghela knows all is not lost is evident from his unperturbed manner. He even "thanked" the Congress for its support to his government, a clear admission that despite the break-up, the alliance would continue in another form.

Speculation about the Congress pulling the plug had been rife for the past five months. The Congressmen's charges against Vaghela: he did not consult the party on important decisions; by openly wooing the traditional Congress vote banks of Kshatriyas, Harijans, adivasis and Muslims, he was attempting to cut into it; and under Vaghela, corruption had reached unprecedented levels. Congressmen also felt that in the long run, the party would be blamed for the chief minister's misdeeds.

But it was the arrival of Patel as the state Congress chief a few months ago that gave momentum to the campaign against Vaghela. And on October 18, much against his wishes, Congress President Sitaram Kesri, bowing to persistent demands from state partymen, authorised Patel and Chaudhury to take a decision in consultation with central leader Pranab Mukherjee. They got the go-ahead from Mukherjee on the morning of October 20. The operation was so swift that even Kesri, who was in Chandigarh, came to know about it only later. At one point, a jittery Congress high command, flummoxed by the sudden developments in Uttar Pradesh, wanted to delay the decision. But since the letter had been delivered to the governor, the dye was cast.

The developments took almost all parties by surprise. Interestingly, the state BJP too appears to be on the horns of a dilemma. While the party has officially stuck to its earlier stand that it would settle for nothing less than a mid-term poll, it is also thinking in terms of taking a shot at power. In the 181-member assembly, the party has 76 MLAs, while the RJP has 46, the Congress 44 and Independents 15. The good news for the party is that while the party is 15 short of a majority, there are at least 10 RJP MLAs who are reportedly not averse to rejoining the BJP on the condition that they are given tickets in the next election. Says a minister considered close to Vaghela and keen on succeeding him: "I would wish to be part of a stable government even if it means joining the BJP again." If the 10 MLAs cross over, the BJP would need only another five to create a split in the RJP. Possible dissent among Vaghela loyalists when his choice of a successor becomes known could serve the BJP's purpose.

Whatever be the strategy of the parties, none discounts outright the possibility of a mid-term poll. One section in the BJP feels that it should form a government, appoint a commission to expose Vaghela's "corrupt deals" and put in place a favourable bureaucratic machinery even as the party prepares for mid-term elections. "We want a mid-term poll," says state BJP leader Keshubhai Patel, "but things would ultimately depend on how the situation finally emerges."

Vaghela, of course, is expected to pull out all stops to prevent the BJP from taking over and launching a witch-hunt against his government. This lends credence to the widespread belief that he will submit to the possible Congress offer of support for an RJP government headed by someone else.

Ironically, even that deal suits Vaghela fine since he would ideally like one of his two key supporters -- Finance Minister Babu Meghji Shah or Industry Minister Dilip Parikh -- to succeed him. Both belong to the numerically small Bania community and will have to depend on him for caste-based mass support. Though the Congress would prefer to have a say in the choice of his successor -- it is keen that Atmaram Patel, the revenue minister who rebelled against Vaghela last month, head the new government -- it is not expected to indulge in brinkmanship. The reason: like Vaghela, the Congress too would like to ensure that the BJP is kept out of power.

The next chief minister has an unenviable task awaiting him. Under Vaghela, corruption had become a key part of the administration. The state's coffers are nearly empty. His government's recent decision to create new districts and talukas was not aimed at administrative efficiency but political expediency and has put an additional financial burden on the state. Worse, no party will be able to revoke the decision for fear of inviting the wrath of the people of these districts. Also to Vaghela goes the credit for doing away with the tender system of allotting government contracts and the alleged exorbitant rates at which deals for power plants were struck. But while Vaghela may be gone for good, his successors will be kept busy for years undoing "achievements" of less than a year.

GOVERNOR : Dubious Decision

Like Romesh Bhandari in the Lucknow Raj Bhavan, Krishna Pal Singh in Gandhinagar has often found himself in the midst of controversy. But while Bhandari's actions are mostly aimed at ensuring that president's rule is imposed so that he gets to run the state, Singh has no such ambitions. On October 20, Singh did the unthinkable: he gave Shankersinh Vaghela a seven-day grace period to prove his majority in the state assembly when the outgoing chief minister called on him to recommend dissolution of the House.

The governor's action raised several questions. Prime among them: was he giving Vaghela time to indulge in horse-trading? or was he playing to the tune of the Congress-United Front leaders in Delhi, still reeling from the shock in Lucknow and keen to prevent the BJP from forming a government in yet another state? The questions aren't quite out of place, considering that exactly a year ago Singh had prepared conditions to enable Vaghela to use his immense money power to lure enough BJP MLAs to his side to finally form a government. In an assembly in which a good number of members are unsure of re-election, loyalties are bound to shift -- at the right price. And that Vaghela is willing to pay any price ceased being a secret long ago. According to sources, Singh had spoken to both Prime Minister I.K. Gujral and Congress President Sitaram kesri in Delhi and they were said to be firm that no door should be left open for the BJP to form a government and that enough time should be granted to effect a patch-up that would see the Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) continue in office under another leader.

That the governor's decision was questionable was evident when, in reply to a query from newsmen about the reasons for granting Vaghela time, Singh said, "When Vaghela came to meet me, I asked him orally whether he wanted time to prove his majority and he replied in the affirmative." As a rule, such things are always sought and given in writing. As the former chief minister and the leader of the BJP legislative group, Suresh Mehta said, "Singh has revealed his political inclinations. His step is constitutionally incorrect and tailored to suit his masters in Delhi." Singh's friends and critics would agree that's nothing new.

November 3, 1997