The Nation: Government; Sonia, So Far

India Today, April 5, 1999
April 5, 1999

GOVERNMENT
Sonia, So Far

The Congress makes a half-hearted attempt at unseating Vajpayee. Its real aim seems to be to paint the BJP regime as perennially unstable.

By Javed M Ansari and Saba Naqvi Bhaumik

Sonia's eagerness stems from a fear that Vajpayee is consolidating At a recent meeting of the Congress Parliamentary Party executive, Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Rajesh Pilot raised the issue of pressuring the Government into giving greater relief to the pharmaceutical sector. Party President Sonia Gandhi's response: "Why should we allow this Government to take the credit? In a month's time we will have our own government."

If the events of the past week are an indication, that may well have been a case of wishful thinking. The party has undoubtedly been making renewed efforts to woo members of the BJP-led alliance. Its managers claim that 13 MPs of the ruling coalition are ready to cross over, a move likely to be followed by the 18-member AIADMK Parliamentary Party. But after having first put the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government on notice, the Congress now appears to have pulled back from the brink.

At the heart of the Congress flip-flop lies the division within the party on the strategy to adopt. At first the Congress had unanimously decided to play the wait-and-watch game and simply let the Government collapse under its own weight. Suddenly, the Government appeared on a roll: the Lahore initiative, a reasonably well-received budget combined with the Sangh Parivar settling down to a truce with Vajpayee. The Congress, meanwhile, floundered on Bihar. "The Congress' anti-Dalit stand is the fourth turning point which will cause the party's decline," says Home Minister L.K. Advani, the other three being the Emergency, the 1984 anti-Sikh massacres and the upturning of the Shah Bano judgement.

The Bihar fumble may well be a reason why a section of the Congress is now convinced that Vajpayee will emerge stronger with every passing day in office. Leaders like Arjun Singh, K. Karunakaran and K. Vijayabhaskara Reddy have, therefore, been mounting pressure on the party president to pull the trigger. Says Karunakaran: "The Government should have gone as of yesterday." Jitendra Prasada believes that "the longer we delay, the more time Vajpayee will get to consolidate. Now is the time to act."

But they are up against stalwarts like Sharad Pawar and Pranab Mukherjee who believe the time is not ripe yet to push the country towards a general election, especially with the party yet to decide on alliances in electorally crucial states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Many senior leaders believe that it would be more prudent to wait till the next round of assembly elections in November -- when Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh go to the polls -- give a clearer picture of the mood on the ground and, hopefully, indicate greater support for the party.

"This Government cannot consolidate," says Mukherjee. While those in favour of immediately toppling the Government want an alliance with the Third Front, Pawar believes the party will never be able to stage a comeback in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar if it plays second fiddle to Mulayam and Laloo Prasad Yadav. "How can we make a comeback in Uttar Pradesh if Mulayam calls the shots?" he asks.

There are other crucial questions that remain unresolved. Presuming the Congress succeeds in pulling down the Vajpayee Government, should it then form a coalition of its own? Should it lead a government or support it from outside? Should Sonia head any interim arrangement? If not, who can emerge as an acceptable leader? And if it does actually form a government, won't it be held hostage by small parties?

It is this confusion in the opposition ranks that is the Government's best guarantor. BJP spokesman M. Venkaiah Naidu sums up the situation when he says: "Congress, thy name is confusion." Advani is more to the point: "Any attempt to pull down the Government will lead to a mid-term poll. This does not suit many of the BJP's small allies." The BJP's managers appear to believe that unless the Congress resolves these issues, there is no real threat to the Government.

They point to several grey areas. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress would be willing to jump ship only if the Congress has no truck with the Left, a promise the party cannot afford to give. In the Akali Dal, Prem Singh Chandumajra has turned dissident. But Congress leaders' claims that they have weaned away four of the eight Akali Dal MPs is dismissed as unlikely, especially since the Akalis have no history of joining hands with the Congress. The BJP's most vulnerable ally has turned out to be the Samata Party, whose MP, Shakuni Chaudhary, has been in touch with the Congress' M.L. Fotedar. The Congress is claiming the support of four Samata MPs.

But the real focus of attention remains AIADMK leader J. Jayalalitha, whose cache of 18 MPs could tilt the balance either way. The lady's four-day visit to the capital has set the cat among the pigeons and has had political circles speculating over her every move. Jaya's interests are best served by keeping all sides on tenterhooks. That way she gets the Government to do her bidding and slows down the progress of the corruption cases against her. That is why she continues to blow hot and cold with both the BJP and the Congress.

The BJP, meanwhile, is responding to the new aggressiveness of the Congress by trying to put up a united front with its allies. The draft of the political resolution for the party's national executive in the first week of April is likely to thank the allies for their "cooperation". Senior members of the Government also admit that the prime minister may have to soon succumb to pressure from the allies for a cabinet expansion. BJP Vice-President J.P. Mathur admits that the Government will be under increasing pressure as "the showdown between the Congress and the BJP will intensify in the coming weeks". That is why dissenting factions in the BJP and the Sangh Parivar have decided to close ranks and play down their differences with Vajpayee.

The prime minister on his part appears to have decided that offence is the best form of defence. He has been making uncharacteristically belligerent statements about the Congress from every possible public forum. "Congressmen are behaving as if they cannot live without power," he declared at a public rally in Calcutta. He has also been lashing out at the Congress for the "violence and massacre" in Bihar. In sharp contrast to his normally placid nature, Vajpayee has made it clear that he will not go down without a fight. Having triumphed over the various factions in his party, he is now eager to show himself as a decisive leader.

That is precisely what the Congress wants to avoid. Even if moves to pull down the Government do not really crystallise, the strategy is to keep the pressure on and paint the Vajpayee Raj as perennially unstable. With the Government surviving by a slender majority, it is not entirely impossible for even an accident -- say, an oversight by parliamentary managers before a vote in the Lok Sabha -- to cause irreparable damage and perhaps precipitate a collapse. That would be the Congress' dream -- and the BJP's nightmare.

Issue Contents | Write to us | Subscriptions | Syndication