Columns: The Usual Suspects

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India Today, July 5, 1999
July 5, 1999

THE USUAL SUSPECTS
Diplomacy After Kargil

Formalise the partition of Kashmir.

By Swapan Dasgupta

There are many pieces of conventional wisdom that have been shattered by the war in Kargil. Among the more welcome acts of demolition is the theory -- propagated assiduously by followers of the Gujral doctrine and practitioners of Track-II diplomacy -- that if it wasn't for self-serving politicians on both sides, India and Pakistan would have buried the hatchet long ago. After five weeks of mountain warfare, it is no longer Indian politicians who are in the forefront of hawkish attitudes. As the fiercely pro-Australian sentiments during the cricket World Cup final clearly revealed, the popular mood is unequivocally anti-Pakistan. So much so that the suggestion that Indian forces must cross the Line of Control (LoC) to enlarge the scope of the war has gripped the popular imagination. Never mind the implications, the mood favours a final solution to Pakistan.

For the moment, the A.B. Vajpayee Government has kept its natural instincts on hold, not least because of its caretaker status. Bolstered by major diplomatic successes but mindful of the responsibilities of being a nuclear power, it has left the operational conduct of the war to the armed forces. Its only decisive caveat: don't cross the LoV.

This self-imposed restraint has paid enormous dividends. Beginning with the US and stretching right down to China, the international community has silently moved from regarding Kashmir as a "disputed territory" to tacitly acknowledging the clearly defined LoC as the border between India and Pakistan. Respecting the LoC has become the bottom line of a solution to this particular war. If India now chooses to disregard this ground rule, it will be walking into a Pakistani trap.

At the same time, it is widely acknowledged in official circles that even if Pakistan is pressured into vacating the mountain heights by military or diplomatic means, it will not be the end of the story. Given the extent to which Islamic radicals have permeated the Pakistani military and political establishments, it is entirely conceivable that this year's adventurism in Kargil will be repeated in other ways in subsequent years. Even if the Nawaz Sharif Government is persuaded into re-endorsing the Lahore Declaration, there is no guarantee that it will be able to impose its writ on other roguish arms of the state. Having made the "unfinished agenda" of Partition its ideological priority, Pakistan is no longer in a position to act rationally and with restraint. Its nuclear doctrine is governed by a unique and dangerous logic of blackmail and brinkmanship.

For the world community, this is a cause of alarm. For the first time in history, two nuclear powers are on the verge of going to war. To prevent this, the big powers will combine pressure with appeasement. They will oppose Pakistani aggression and simultaneously seek out the means of tackling the causes of aggression. Pakistan will insist on making Kashmiri "self-determination" an international issue as the price for military restraint.

If the sacrifices of our soldiers are not to go in vain, India has to ready itself for a far more important political battle after the guns become silent. It can sit on its high horse and let Pakistan and its fifth columnists transform Kashmir into our Kosovo. Alternatively, it can seize the high ground and indicate its willingness to accept the LoC as the extension of the Radcliffe Line. Let our political class have the courage to state publicly what it has all along conceded privately. Let us formalise the partition of Kashmir.

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