April 6, 1998

The emergence of an anti-Congress fourth front comes in handy for the BJP--and the former UF allies. 

By Swapan Dasgupta and Javed M Ansari

Like most politicians nurtured in the traditions of the Sangh Parivar, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee does not like keeping late nights. But last Wednesday was different. After a harrowing day in the Lok Sabha, where he kept his composure in the face of the Opposition's sarcastic references to the BJP alliance's choice of Speaker, Vajpayee would have preferred to shut himself away from the world for the night. Unfortunately, it was not to be. Till well past midnight, staff at 7 Safdarjung Road awaited anxiously for a visitor who had landed in Delhi from Hyderabad in a private aircraft.

It proved a frustrating vigil. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu landed in the capital at 9.45 p.m. and drove straight to his suite in Andhra Bhavan. Within a few minutes, he was joined by Keshuv Mahanta and D. Hazarika, two functionaries of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and the ever-sprightly Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Farooq Abdullah. As the confabulations stretched past the midnight hour, there were anxious telephone calls from the Vajpayee residence. Finally, at 12.30, Naidu expressed his inability to meet the prime minister. "There are too many reporters waiting outside," he is understood to have told a Vajpayee aide.

True, the media-savvy Naidu was instinctively disinclined to disappoint the Capital's media, but this was one occasion when it paid to be silent. Having sewn up a deal with the BJP over the election of his man as Speaker, the last thing Naidu wanted was to be confronted with further awkward questions. Since the morning of March 3, Naidu had steadily distanced himself from his erstwhile colleagues in the United Front (UF). But the act of separation was played out in slow motion till his formal resignation from the UF on the morning of March 23. Now, if Naidu was going to follow the next logical step -- embracing Vajpayee -- he wasn't going to do it in a tearing hurry. And not without being absolutely sure.

For a start, Naidu needed an ideological cover to justify a pragmatic turn. That is where Farooq and Mahanta came in handy. As the Lok Sabha results poured in, it was clear to all three that they would have to review their uncompromising hostility to the BJP. For the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the AGP, the voting pattern said it all. The BJP may have won four Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh compared to the TDP's 12 and the Congress' 22, but it was nevertheless a spectacular performance. Out of the 294 assembly segments, the BJP was ahead in 32 and was runner-up in a further 107. The TDP was first in only 90 segments. The analysis of the results revealed that the Congress would have been reduced to only five seats in Andhra Pradesh if the BJP and TDP had entered into an alliance. Such an alliance would have led in 268 assembly segments.

For Mahanta too, statistics spoke louder than words. The ruling party in Assam not only failed to win a single seat, it was relegated to third position by the BJP. Winning the Silchar seat, the BJP was second in seven more seats. In terms of votes, the Congress polled 39 per cent, the BJP 23.9 per cent and the AGP 12.7 per cent. The main reason for the AGP debacle wasn't merely the boycott call by the separatist United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), it was the vertical split in the Assamese Hindu vote, hitherto the social base of the AGP. The All-Assam Student's Union (AASU), in fact, campaigned against the AGP and its leaders made statements that "Vajpayee is the only one who has heard out the problems of Assam".

As for Farooq, the only UF leader who has not been afraid to be seen in the company of BJP leaders, the issue is more practical. The BJP may be an untouchable in the Valley for its controversial stand on Article 370 but for Farooq, the core issue is a friendly Centre. Says Srinagar-based political analyst Sofi Gulam Mohammed: "Farooq is merely following the guideline set by his father Sheikh Abdullah at the fag end of his political career." It is a view shared by Farooq's brother-in-law and former chief minister G.M. Shah: "It is clear that Farooq wants to remain glued to power at all costs." Adds a former UF Steering Committee colleague: "He is a political manager and it is foolish to expect political morality from him."

It is one thing for Naidu, Mahanta and Farooq to detect a convergence of interests between themselves and a Vajpayee Government at the Centre. It is a separate matter to go the whole hog and either support or even participate in such a government, regardless of the inducements. Naidu doesn't face that much of a problem since his own Kamma community is pressuring him to give Vajpayee a chance, but Farooq operates in the country's only Muslim-majority state. As for Mahanta, nearly one in four voters in Assam is a Muslim. The mere suggestion of Farooq cosying up to Vajpayee, for example, was enough for Saifuddin Soz, one of the MPs of the National Conference, to fulminate publicly. Even Naidu was embarrassed by his party General Secretary Lal Jan Basha publicly stating that there was no question of the TDP ever supporting a BJP-led government.

The three parties have tried to get out of a difficult predicament by, what CPI General Secretary A.B. Bardhan describes as "calibrated defection". First, they have vigorously raised the banner of anti-Congressism. Reacting to the charge levelled by CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet that he "lacks conviction and after striking a deal with the BJP is now trying to invent alibis to cover it up", Naidu was categorical in his answer. "I cannot support the Congress directly or indirectly," he said. "It will hurt me and my party." The TDP, he insisted, had "paid a heavy price" for the "pronounced pro-Congress stand of some UF leaders before the elections".

Secondly, rather than confront the new political situation individually and at a state level, the three parties have agreed to establish yet another front, committed once again to federalism and secularism. "All anti-Congress forces," said Naidu, "are welcome to join us." Informal contacts have already been established with people such as George Fernandes and Ramakrishna Hegde, who Naidu describes as "secular-minded" members of the Vajpayee Government. On his part, Farooq has made overtures to the Akali Dal and Om Prakash Chautala's Haryana Lok Dal. If a sufficient number of the BJP's existing allies can be persuaded to lend their weight to such a front, it will make the association of the nc, TDP and AGP with the Vajpayee Government relatively easier. It would also enhance their bargaining clout in matters concerning Centre-state relations. Hamstrung by a resource crunch, Naidu, for example, needs funds from an indulgent Centre to push through his ambitious plans for the restructuring of the state electricity board and other infrastructure projects.

Actually, this convoluted support route suits the BJP admirably. There are suggestions that the deal on the Speaker was clinched with the TDP after a senior BJP functionary first mooted the idea of a fourth front to Naidu. This may have been a case of separate political minds working in tandem, but there is no doubt that the BJP is in dire need of organised support to extricate it from permanent parliamentary bedlam and the unreasonable demands of small parties. Anti-Congressism is an expedient banner to shift focus from the secular-communal issue that continues to plague the BJP. Moreover, in states such as Karnataka, Orissa and Punjab, the BJP and its regional allies have benefited electorally from harnessing the anti-Congress vote. It is possible for the TDP and AGP to jump on this bandwagon without compromising their political positions at the grassroots. In such a situation, the proposed fourth front offers a soft landing spot to the new found supporters of Vajpayee.

Indeed, a new front opens up a window of opportunity for the BJP to rest the Vajpayee Government on relatively secure foundations. If the Government passes the confidence vote without the 14-member fourth front bloc actually saying "aye", it will still be plagued by the fear that one cussed MP could bring the whole structure crashing. Yesterday it was the antics of one angry Akali Dal MP that brought the Treasury benches and the Opposition almost on a par. Tomorrow, a one-man Janata Party could neutralise the advantage altogether and, maybe, invite a no-confidence motion. A determined Opposition could exploit the situation further by paralysing Parliament and crippling the working of the Government. This in turn is certain to have a knock-on effect on a bureaucracy that is still apprehensive of any non-Congress dispensation. After the controversy over the Speaker, it is now almost clear that Vajpayee's plea for consensus will fall on deaf ears. The Congress will use small groups like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the CPI(M) to obstruct all parliamentary business as a matter of routine. "We are still being supported from the outside by the Congress," said a newly-elected Samajwadi Party MP.

BJP strategists reckon they can tide over this crisis by transforming a wafer-thin "working majority" into a clear majority where the Government has the support of between 290 and 300 MPs. It is here that a fourth front committed to anti-Congressism comes in handy. The BJP alliance leaders appear to have concluded that the Congress is more inclined to sit in the Opposition rather than cobble together a ramshackle coalition and allow Vajpayee to assume the mantle of martyrdom. The problem is the fanatical anti-BJPism of the CPI(M) that feels threatened by Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP that are panic-stricken by an extra-aggressive BJP in Uttar Pradesh and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) that sees power slipping out of its grasp in Bihar. It is these groups that are pushing the Congress into premature confrontation with the Vajpayee Government.

The fourth front offers a back-door entry point for those non-Congress MPs who, having been elected, are anxious to both avert another premature election and, simultaneously, develop a relationship with the new power structure. Working in close tandem with its existing allies, notably the Samata Party, the BJP has already identified vulnerable sections of the Samajwadi Party and the RJD, particularly their non-Yadav MPs. The party also feels that no moral opprobrium will be attached to it if -- for the sake of the lofty ideal of stability -- an Uttar Pradesh-style operation is repeated at the Centre, albeit with greater finesse and sophistication. And certainly without the scandalous touch of P.V. Narasimha Rao's courtship of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in 1993.

If Vajpayee is able to negotiate the choppy waters of his first vote of confidence, he will be able to devote his Government's attention to a spate of mergers and new acquisitions. The parliamentary interregnum before the budget session promises a lot of fun and games. After that, if the gods smile on him, Vajpayee can hope for a full night's sleep.

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