April 6, 1998

BJP grabs power but Sukh Ram hits the political jackpot.

By Ramesh Vinayak

For Ramesh Chaudhry, the Independent MLA in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly, it was poetic justice in the end. Minister for Irrigation and Public Health in the newly formed government, Chaudhry -- who was denied a ticket by the BJP earlier -- had the satisfaction of playing kingmaker last week when the party pulled out all stops to get his support to form the government in the state.

Convincing him to switch loyalty from the Congress, however, required some deft political manoeuvring by the BJP high command, especially as the Congress had given him a cabinet berth in the short-lived Virbhadra Singh government. After the Congress and the BJP -- with alliance partner, the scam-tainted Sukh Ram's Himachal Vikas Party (HVC) -- were tied with 32 MLAs each in the assembly, Governor V.S. Rama Devi had recommended President's rule. The BJP Government at the Centre refused, realising that Chaudhry could tilt the balance. Once he switched sides, the BJP achieved the magic figure of 33, paving the way for a nine-member coalition government led by state party chief Prem Kumar Dhumal.

After initial attempts by the state leaders to win back Chaudhry failed, the party high command assigned the task to MP and former chief minister Shanta Kumar as the MLA was his protégé before he rebelled. Kumar is reported to have been promised a ministerial berth at the Centre for netting Chaudhry. "Presence of the BJP-led government in Delhi changed the political arithmetic in Shimla," says Kumar. The trial of strength in the Assembly on March 31 is likely to be easy for the party.

Though the victory has been the BJP's, it is Sukh Ram who has hit the political jackpot. Not only has he got the lucrative public works and multi-purpose projects and power portfolio, all his MLAs have also become ministers. Moreover, the BJP has pledged to support the nomination of his son Anil Sharma to the Rajya Sabha. But despite all the compromises, Dhumal may have a tough time keeping his flock together. For, the Congress, licking its wounds and waiting to strike back, is sure to poach on any disgruntled MLAs. As Congress leader J.B.L. Khachi says, "The party has lost the battle, not the war."

The next hurdle for both the parties is round the corner: elections to the four tribal assembly seats of Bharmaur, Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur and Paragpur on June 3. Though the tribal belt is a Congress stronghold, its voters tend to side with the ruling party at the Centre. Says former Congress chief minister Thakur Ram Lal: "Not being in power at the Centre or the state would put the Congress at a big electoral disadvantage." A pre-poll alliance between the BJP and the HVC -- under which the BJP would contest three assembly seats and the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, while the HVC will contest the Bharmaur seat -- has also unnerved the Congress.

The electoral challenge apart, the Dhumal Government also faces a financial crisis, with the state's debt totalling Rs 6,000 crore. It has already asked the Centre for a financial package. "Only liberal Central aid can bail us out of the financial mess that the Congress has left behind," says Dhumal.

With a razor-thin majority, fickle MLAs and a financial crisis, Dhumal knows that the March 24 coup was the easiest task. The real test begins now.

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