July 6, 1998

The latest offensive against renewed militancy may be marred by poor logistical support and ineptitude on the part of the state administration.

By Harinder Baweja

It couldn't have been a more unlikely partnership. One is hard-headed, measured and austere, the other flamboyant, impulsive and even dilettantish. One shot to fame as the stern face of Hindutva, waging many campaigns to revoke Jammu and Kashmir's "special status" in the Constitution; the other is India's proud secular face, the man who inherited his father's mantle as the chief minister of the only Muslim-majority state.

It took two gruesome massacres at Prankote in Udhampur and Champnari in Doda to cement a new understanding between Union Home Minister L.K. Advani and Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah. The 51 innocent civilians who died were Hindus, and the perpetrators of the crime weren't Kashmiri Muslims. With normalcy, tourists and film crews fast returning to the scenic valley, it is Punjabi-speaking Pakistani army regulars and Afghan mercenaries who are keeping terrorism alive in the state. After the Pokhran blasts, their activities have acquired a new urgency. "The Pakistani ISI," says state Director-General of Police Gurbachan Jagat, "has stepped up the offensive to drive home the point that Kashmir is a flash point." According to state Governor Girish Chandra Saxena, the instructions to the militants are to indulge in as many sensational murders as possible. In addition, the ceasefire agreement between Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and former prime minister I.K. Gujral at their meeting in New York in October last year was violated minutes after India's nuclear tests. "Pakistan has moved artillery along the border and they are firing at some of our posts everyday, but we are not retaliating because we know they only want to internationalise the issue,''says Saxena.

It's actually even more frightening. Having systematically effected the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley -- all Farooq's efforts to get them to return have come to nought -- the terrorists have now homed in on the district of Jammu where the population has a religious mix. Operating from hideouts in the mountains south of Pir Panjal and equipped with sophisticated arms and transmitters, the terrorists, according to Jagat, "aim to spread terror and induce a migration". Advani calls it "religious cleansing", a phenomenon calculated to communalise the situation and even provoke a backlash.

The political ramifications of the terrorist strategy in Jammu was well understood by both Advani and Farooq. Apart from the fact that uncompromising anti-terrorism has figured high in the BJP's traditional agenda, Advani was confronted by local pressures: both massacre sites fall within constituencies represented by the BJP in the Lok Sabha. Moreover, having been gifted the Department of Kashmir Affairs by the Prime Minister's Office last month, he is under pressure to perform. If Kashmir reverts to the bad old days, it will mean the end of the BJP dream of projecting Advani as today's Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, the "iron man". "I have no business to rule if I can't protect you," he told Doda residents shamefacedly.

For Farooq, too, the stakes are very high. Three months ago, he stuck his neck out politically and instructed the two National Conference MPs to refrain from voting against the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government. He cosied up to the new rulers in Delhi further by going ecstatic over the nuclear blasts and accompanying Vajpayee to Pokhran. He was, predictably, denounced in the Valley, but remained unfazed. "I am proud of Pokhran. I am part of India. How would we survive if the Centre did not support us?" he asks. "Yes, I promised jobs, but we need jobs in lakhs which the Centre has to provide. What can Farooq Abdullah do single-handedly?"

The answer is: precious little. Faced with a bankrupt treasury -- salaries to government employees and MLAs have not been paid this month -- and soaring expectations, Farooq desperately needs a friendly Centre to both bankroll him and sustain anti-terrorism. Any growth of lawlessness in Kashmir will, of course, puncture Delhi's international standing, but it will also make Farooq's position untenable. Even a friendly V.P. Singh government could not prevent his dismissal in 1990 after the exodus of the Pandits from the Valley. Farooq was heckled by angry Champnari residents. They accused him of tying the army's hands. A few more such incidents and there will be a predictable clamour for Governor's rule.

Despite Pakistan's determination to unsettle the state, Farooq has reason to repose some faith in Advani. In the past, the battle against militancy in Kashmir was marred by the Centre working at cross-purposes. In V.P. Singh's National Front government, governor Jagmohan's hard-line approach was offset by the creation of a Ministry of Kashmir Affairs headed by George Fernandes. Under P.V. Narasimha Rao, there were constant attempts at one-upmanship between home minister S.B. Chavan and his minister of state Rajesh Pilot. In the Vajpayee Government, the responsibility for Kashmir rests squarely on Advani's shoulders. There are no dual power centres and Advani is not a political lightweight.

Yet, the success of the "proactive" strategy first enunciated by Advani at a meeting, attended by Farooq, Saxena, Fernandes and the army top brass on May 18, depends entirely on the forces on the ground getting it right. The Champnari killings, for example, were waiting to happen. Two months before the massacre, there was a marked thinning of forces in Doda and Udhampur when as many as six battalions were withdrawn. For over a month, Farooq pleaded for additional forces, but as a senior police official disclosed, "The Centre was not willing to give even three battalions even though the Doda massacre was preceded by the killing of 13 civilians and two policemen.'' A week before the incident, Farooq again asked for additional troops for Doda. He also pressed the Centre for 10,000 rifles to arm the Village Defence Committees (VDCs). Both requests were lost in the maze of officialdom. Again, in Champnari, the Rashtriya Rifles was alerted within 12 minutes of the massacre, but arrived on the scene an hour later.

If today, the residents of Doda, Udhampur, Rajouri and Poonch are losing faith in the Government's ability to protect them, it is because the foreign mercenaries are working to a definite plan. "Pakistan has moved to a plan while we have not,'' concedes Jagat. Apart from losing nine men to terrorist guns, what concerns the police is the demoralisation of the force. Threats are regularly pasted on mosques and in market places asking policemen not to be traitors. "The ISI has created an elaborate network in the country," rues Advani. Simultaneously, to drive a communal wedge, the predominantly Hindu composition of the VDCs is driven home. In 1997, 400 families migrated from Doda, Rajouri and Poonch. The killings in Doda this year have touched 60; last year, it was 18. In Udhampur district, 26 Hindus were killed in the first four months of this year as compared to 11 in the whole of 1997. "The character of militancy has changed and so has the area of operation,'' says Saxena.

The new cycle of terrorism has come at a time when Farooq was optimistically speaking of having to cope with "residual militancy''. Says Saxena, "We have to find the right tactics in a terrain where the militants have the advantage of choosing the time and place.'' The advantage of terrain has always been conceded to the terrorists and efforts are now on to induct helicopters for reconnaissance and for speedy induction of troops. "Where is the proactive policy?'' a besieged Farooq responded when asked about the components of the new approach. "We are looking for the Doda killers long after they must have hidden in the mountains. We must bring in helicopters to transport troops rapidly." Farooq is sore that the Centre hasn't granted him the Rs 320 crore he sought for modernising the police. "They are sanctioning only Rs 147 crore. How can we get proactive? I can't expect my officers to use lathis (sticks) when the enemy has the most sophisticated weaponry.''

Actually, the problem isn't just one of resources. Or even the greater recourse to commando operations. A key element of the four-point anti-terrorist strategy announced by Advani in Srinagar on June 24 includes "deepening the democratic process" in the state. "The experience of Punjab shows that terrorism can be defeated primarily with the help of the local police and administration," says Advani. As part of this approach, the Centre readily accepted Farooq's request not to declare Doda a disturbed area, despite pleas by local Hindus. For all his shortcomings, Farooq remains India's best bet in Kashmir. A central element of Advani's package is bolstering him politically.

This, however, could be a hazardous. Some 21 months into his third administration, the Farooq Government is again under attack for corruption and indifference. Says CPI(M) MLA Yusuf Tarigami, a former ally: "Farooq has not been able to check his legislators. I have been pleading for transparency but all that is visible is favouritism even in the few jobs that have been doled out."

The state Government has created 13,000 of the 26,000 jobs promised by the National Conference (NC), but recruitment hasn't been above board. Congress MLA Mehbooba Mufti admits that a minister requested her to nominate five persons for the vacancies. "I opened my diary and then shut it because I remembered the pleas of women from my constituency. I haven't been able to provide them a lady doctor in 18 months." Government jobs are being routed through MLAs, but says a police official, "they come for a price. We were asked by the chief minister to inform him of all such deals that we notice but we find that little action is taken." As for grievance redressal, a report by former chief secretary Moosa Raza has only just been accepted by Farooq. Putting it effectively into place awaits another day.

Even Farooq admits to rampant corruption. According to him, not a paisa from the Rs 1 crore sanctioned for flood control in his Ganderbal constituency was properly utilised. A private inquiry into the NC's defeat in Anantnag -- which fell to former home minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed -- pinned popular anger on corruption and unemployment.

No wonder the state Government's plea for more development aid is viewed with some scepticism by the Centre, although a meeting has been convened next month at Advani's behest involving the state Government, Planning Commission and the Finance Ministry. Farooq has merely kept up the long tradition of whimsical utilisation of official largesse. His priorities seem inexplicable. The chief minister's impulsive gift of Rs 10 lakh to Ratan Irani, the director of the film Mere Apne -- the first film unit to return to Kashmir in a decade -- has created resentment. "Why couldn't the same money be used to give soft loans to the unemployed?" asks Mehbooba.

In a sense, Farooq should be pleased that Advani has made Kashmir No. 1 on the internal security agenda and is positioning himself accordingly, just as Vajpayee is doing through Pokhran. The home minister has even made the return of normalcy in the state a matter of personal honour. "If I'm not able to do it, quitting office would be justified," he said.

Unfortunately, noble sentiments have a strange way of translating into ground realities. When Advani says that "since 1989 never has the relationship between the Central and state governments been so cordial", it provokes a hostile reaction in the Valley. Says Tarigami, "People see Farooq as somebody who has surrendered. He is being called a political opportunist.'' The BJP connection, particularly its stand on Article 370, is partly responsible. But no less galling is Farooq's unfulfilled promises on greater autonomy. In the Valley, where there are still few takers for a pro-India line, Farooq is berated for siding with Delhi when he should be fighting it. Trying to take advantage of the undercurrent of belligerence in the Valley -- rekindled by Pakistan's attempts at internationalising Kashmir -- is the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) and the militants, who are trying to entice recruits to cross the border for training. But so far the move has met with little response. People are busy rebuilding their lives after eight violent years.

Yet, Pakistan is unlikely to give up. If Islamabad was rattled by Pokhran, it is equally unsettled by the new Advani-Farooq understanding. There is a feeling that the BJP can go to any extent to defeat the separatist movement in Kashmir because success will bring rewards in the Hindi heartland. Farooq too stands to gain because, at the end of the day, the real threat to him comes from pro-Pakistan elements in the state. At the same time, there is an assessment that a deal with the BJP is possible because only a hard-line party can sell a compromise without its patriotism being questioned. However, before any deal is contemplated, Pakistan will move towards a decisive, no-holds-barred offensive, if only to secure a bargaining advantage. Till then blood will continue to flow in Kashmir. Unless, of course, Pakistan's "evil designs" are successfully met by Advani and Farooq's grand designs.

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