Nation: Unauthorised Occupants [Time to Get the Boot]

The rest of the Opposition virtually pleads with the party to take steps to replace the BJP Government. But Sonia wants to do it her way, in her time.

It's a matter of one woman's inclination and another's timing. With the Jayalalitha-BJP relationship increasingly resembling a college romance gone sour, the Congress is sure the aiadmk will withdraw support to Atal Bihari Vajpayee's ministry sooner rather than later. No wonder Congress leaders swagger about smugly these days. They are convinced their time has come -- or, at worst, is round the corner. Past and present members of the United Front (UF) are pleading with them to take the initiative and "topple the BJP regime".

When Jayalalitha launched her latest offensive, demanding yet again that Tamil Nadu's DMK Government be removed, the Congress was caution personified. The Congress Working Committee (CWC) even held a marathon meeting. It ended with a damp squib of a press statement: "In case the Government collapses under its own weight, we will discharge our responsibility." What did "under its own weight" mean? Would the Congress take any steps at all to woo the BJP's allies?

Like a coy virgin, the Congress was not telling. Arjun Singh kept mum. Kamal Nath, member of the Congress Parliamentary Party's (CPP) strategy committee, was marginally more articulate: "Vajpayee won the confidence vote in March by a mere 13 votes. If the AIADMK withdraws support, what is the alternative? I am sure the BJP does not expect us to loan it our MPs." When Parliament's budget session resumes on July 3, it will be time for crucial money bills. The budget has to be discussed and passed. This is when the Congress hopes to embarrass the Government.

Fine, but when is the Congress likely to effect its long-promised coup? Actually, the party is playing hard to get. Abused and vilified by the UF when the Jain Commission report become such a contentious issue in 1997, the Congress is gleeful that its former detractors are now approaching it, cap in hand. Sonia's desire is simple: the rest of the Opposition must recognise the Congress' suzerainty.

Some are already agreeable. The newly formed Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM) is decidedly pro-Congress. Laloo Yadav and Mulayam Yadav are poll allies of the Congress and Buta Singh is knocking on the mother party's doors, pleading for readmission. The most dramatic shift has been the CPI(M)'s. A couple of weeks ago, Jyoti Basu even met Manmohan Singh for the first ever serious negotiations between the Congress and the communists.

The bourgeois-proletarian d tente actually began in March after the general elections. H.S. Surjeet, CPI(M) general secretary, lobbied hard with Sonia to anoint somebody else -- whether Arjun, Manmohan or Sharad Pawar -- CPP chief. The candidate, Surjeet said, could become prime minister of a Congress-UF coalition. The problem was Sonia, despite not being an MP, wanted the CPP post for herself. Surjeet found it difficult to get the UF to reconcile itself to backing Sonia as prime minister.

Three months have passed -- and much has happened in them. The BJP has not exactly distinguished itself and its uneasy relations with its smaller partners have left it precariously placed. Surjeet continues to be Sonia's ambassador at large and finds his UF friends more receptive to the idea of working under the Gandhi matriarch.

Before he set off on a tour of Portugal, Surjeet had a hectic series of meetings with Mulayam, Laloo and H.D. Deve Gowda. This is some achievement given that when Gowda was prime minister he was scarcely on talking terms with Surjeet. As Gowda later put it, "We discussed the issue before Surjeet left. It is for the Congress to form the government and choose the leader. The issue of a person of foreign origin heading the next government is not important." As for the Yadav duo, Laloo and Mulayam, they are willing to put personal ambitions on the backburner so as to "consolidate secular forces".

The happy convergence of interests extends to other political free agents. Subramanian Swamy, for instance, is a self-appointed Congress supporter. He has declared his intention to instal a prime minister "acceptable to Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha, the Left, Laloo and Mulayam". To fulfil all these conditions would require the skills of a Houdini and perhaps Swamy may have been the best person for the job. Unfortunately, he has ruled himself out of contention. Even so, he has met Sonia to discuss alternative government formation.

As its president in the '80s, Chandra Shekhar acrimoniously expelled Swamy from the Janata Party. Yet, today he is as keen as Swamy to replace the BJP administration with a Congress one. "I am not taking the initiative because people will think I am doing it for myself," he says, "therefore, I am appealing to the Congress to take the initiative."

That initiative may come quicker now that, with Mulayam's exit, the UF has been reduced to a rump. The argument goes that the UF has been compromised by the fact that three Janata Dal MPs -- I.K. Gujral, Ram Vilas Paswan and S. Jaipal Reddy -- have a tacit understanding with the BJP. All three owe their Lok Sabha seats to the BJP or its allies. Also the DMK is far more anti-Congress than anti-BJP. The new RLM will stress its "secular" credentials by keeping such elements out.

As the "third force" regroups for the umpteenth time, the attention is moving to the Congress. There are two schools of thought within the party. CWC members like Jitendra Prasada, A.K. Antony, Rajesh Pilot, Madhavrao Scindia and Ahmed Patel argue the party should wait. This group wants to give the BJP-led Government a long rope, wait for the rupee to hit 46 or 47 to a dollar and prices of essential items to soar.

Such conditions, combined with the impact of post-Pokhran sanctions, will allow the Congress to raise the cry of India being in an economic crisis. The public mood will then be in favour of removing Vajpayee from 7 Race Course Road. The tentative timing for putting the plan into motion coincides with the winter session of Parliament.

There is another, more extreme section in the Congress. It includes Arjun, Manmohan and R.K. Dhawan and doesn't want to give Vajpayee one more day in office. Alarmed by the Pokhran-induced bellicosity and Home Minister L.K. Advani's statement about a "proactive policy in Kashmir", they fear the BJP may resort to a conflict with Pakistan in September-October. This could prove beneficial for the ruling party in the upcoming assembly elections and -- the Congressmen fear -- in any possible mid-term general election.

On her part, Sonia wants to bargain from a position of strength. As Chandra Shekhar, Gowda, Gujral and the late Charan Singh realised, the Congress doesn't support a government as much as blackmails it. Sonia knows the boot could now be in the other foot. So she wants to make life easy for her handpicked prime minister. Who will that be though? Not Pawar, a man Sonia does not trust. So will it be Manmohan -- or, like on another winter's day 32 years ago, will a second Mrs Gandhi take charge of India's destiny?

BJP
Winter Worrries

BJP General Secretary K.N. Govindacharya has a sense of humour. Ask him about the party's achievements in 100 days, he'll grin, mention Pokhran II, then laugh and promise a longer list the next day. Govindacharya may laugh off uncomfortable queries but other BJP leaders are admitting a sense of disquiet at not just the non-performance of this Government but also its survival.

Partymen are talking of explaining to the people "why we were not allowed to perform". The war of words with the AIADMK coinciding with the formation of an anti-BJP front has the leadership worried. The BJP has now informed Jayalalitha that it is not opposed to Article 356 as such. "But it is up to her now to convince us that we can get away with using Article 356 to dismiss the DMK Government," says a party leader. Though the latest exchange of words appeared to end with Jayalalitha backing off, the BJP knows she can bring down the Government any time. Several signals indicate the party is steeling itself for a winter collapse. The demand for dismissal of the Rabri Devi Government in Bihar, for instance, is qualitatively different from the AIADMK claim, as the BJP has a direct electoral stake in the northern state. Party strategists are talking of dismissing the Bihar Government after this session of Parliament. "The political repercussions will be offset by the electoral gains for the BJP-Samata," says a general secretary.

The clearest sign that the entire Sangh Parivar is gearing for a collapse is the flurry of statements on the mandir issue. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee may have given an undertaking that the Government will abide by the court verdict, but ministers like Uma Bharati have already expressed the view that the courts are not the appropriate place to settle a dispute involving "national emotions". Exactly the view of VHP chief Ashok Singhal and RSS Sarsangchalak Rajendra Singh, who said if the court verdict is not favourable legislation should be brought to build the Ram mandir.

Which is what BJP spokesperson K.L. Sharma had said in the first place, before he'd been hauled up for contradicting Vajpayee. All these apparently conflicting statements, admits a senior BJP functionary, "are part of the same scheme. No wing of the parivar will move on the mandir issue in isolation".

Having failed to appropriate the good governance card, the BJP knows it must cater to its committed constituency -- particularly as it could end up returning to the people sooner than expected.

- Saba Naqvi Bhaumik