The Usual Suspects

India Today, December 7, 1998
Dec 7, 1998

THE USUAL SUSPECTS
Operation Salvage

Without a re-energised BJP, Vajpayee cannot survive.

Swapan Dasgupta

Having got accustomed of late to shooting the messenger, it is possible that the BJP leadership may now choose to direct its flak at Madan Lal Khurana, the loyalist-turned-dissident. Khurana's forthright assertion that it was not the Congress which won the recent Assembly elections but the BJP which lost is calculated to rile a leadership that failed miserably to gauge the mounting anger at the Government's non-performance. Certainly, the exit polls bear out an impression that a disenchanted middle class -- the heart and soul of the BJP -- either stayed at home or defected in sufficient numbers to the Congress.

For a party that has never really tasted defeat after 1984 -- even the 1993 setback in Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh pales into insignificance compared to this poll -- the act of purification and rejuvenation is certain to be painful. More so because there isn't even the luxury of regrouping in opposition. Any introspection the party does and the corrective measures it takes must emanate from the Central Government. To put it bluntly, the A.B. Vajpayee Government must now perform or perish ignominiously.

This is easier said than done. Past experience suggests that defeats in assembly elections have a debilitating effect on the Centre. Rajiv Gandhi's decline began with the defeats in West Bengal and Kerala in 1987. P.V. Narasimha Rao could never regain his composure after the Congress' defeat in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in 1994. If, refusing the bait offered by the CPI(M), Sonia Gandhi now decides to let the BJP-led Government stew in its own juice, Vajpayee could find himself heading a lame-duck Government even before he has completed a year in office. The growing talk of yet another general election is unlikely to enhance confidence in the Government.

The impression of collapse is at the heart of Vajpayee's problem. The prime minister may initiate bold measures -- the proposal to open up the insurance sector is the latest example -- but these will have no significant political impact unless accompanied by day-to-day evidence of decisiveness. For all his charm and geniality, Vajpayee conveys the impression of being a weak man who is in control neither of politics nor the administration. Matters are not helped by the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) pursuing its own private agenda and undermining other arms of the Government. Indeed, the prime minister cuts a very sorry figure for his inability to rein in those at the helm of his own backyard.

Perhaps the answer lies in Vajpayee not attempting to emulate either the decisiveness of Indira Gandhi or the prevarication of Rao. At this stage of his career, the prime minister is unlikely to reinvent himself. To survive and at the same time make a mark, he has to fall back on the one institution that he knows and understands -- the party. Faced with indifferent election results, Vajpayee has to re-energise the BJP and, by implication, the other trusted coalition partners. If the party comes alive, the bureaucracy will meekly fall in line. If the BJP persists with its drift, the babus will finish what remains of the Government.

From this week, once the scale of the electoral setback is fully understood, the BJP will undertake elaborate chintan (think) sessions. It would be prudent for Vajpayee to take an active part in these. He needs to understand what the party expects of his Government and he needs to make the BJP comprehend his understanding of priorities. At present, both are working at cross purposes.

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