The Nation: Government: War of Nerves

Unlike in the previous session, the main opposition party will be in no mood to relent on contentious issues when Parliament meets this week.

Momentous political decisions have a habit of being born out of the pettiest of considerations. V.P. Singh implemented the Mandal Commission report in 1990 because he wanted to take the thunder out of Devi Lal's kisan rally; the Chandra Shekhar government fell in 1991 because four Haryana constables decided to camp outside Rajiv Gandhi's residence; and H.D. Deve Gowda found himself out of a job in 1996 because Sitaram Kesri didn't quite like his face. Going by this cynical logic, last week's Bihar crisis that almost led to the fall of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government happened because the Congress was determined to deflate the gains of the prime minister's successful visit to Lahore.

This, of course, is what the Government side believes or would like to believe. And it's not entirely bereft of logic. On February 13, when the prime minister was toasting the King of Morocco in Rabat after receiving the news of the Rabri Devi government's dismissal, Home Minister L.K. Advani got into a huddle with Congress General Secretary Sushil Kumar Shinde. The Dalit leader from Maharashtra had returned to Delhi the same day after accompanying Congress President Sonia Gandhi to Narayanpur in Bihar's Jehanabad district-the scene of the massacre that led to Rabri's dismissal. Sonia had earlier asked Rabri to quit on moral grounds.

During his meeting with Advani, Shinde never gave any indication that Sonia's wasn't the last word on the subject. He carried a letter from her to the home minister listing three demands: payment of adequate compensation to the next of kin of the 12 killed; the immediate setting up of a police station for Narayanpur; and the opening of a primary school for the village catering especially to Dalit children. These were unexceptionable demands and Advani instructed Home Secretary B.P. Singh in the presence of Shinde to send the relevant instructions to Patna. Then the discussion moved to more substantive issues. Shinde reeled off a list of possible candidates who could replace Sundar Singh Bhandari as governor. The Congress seemed inclined in favour of despatching Maharashtra Governor P.C. Alexander to Patna. Shinde, of course, denies any such understanding with Advani.

RABRI DEVI
THE SECOND COMING

Price of Resurrection: Laloo may be under pressure from the Congress to ease out Rabri

It is tempting to compare Rabri Devi to the proverbial bad penny that keeps spinning back into its owner's hand. But there is a difference. While the coin doesn't lose its monetary value on repeat journeys, the wife of Laloo Prasad Yadav may not find another opportunity to proxy for her husband in the chief minister's chamber. Even though the Lok Sabha ratified the imposition of President's rule, Laloo is still keeping up a brave front since the Rajya Sabha is certain to block it. He has been declaring that none but Rabri would lead the RJD's triumphal return to power. However, there is a growing possibility that the Congress has extracted a price for throwing the life vest to Laloo. And the price could well be to persuade the RJD to accept a chief minister vetted by the Congress.

The substance of the negotiations between Laloo and the Congress, which began with the RJD chief's visit to 10 Janpath on February 23, is still swaddled in mystery. But the subsequent closed-door meeting that Laloo had with Congress Working Committee (CWC) members Arjun Singh and Sushil Kumar Shinde has pumped speculation that the Congress is pressing for an alternative chief minister in Patna. In that event, the candidates that the Laloo camp is betting on are: Shakeel Ahmed, Laloo's lawyer in the fodder-scam case, and Anwar Ahmed, a close aide of Laloo. Significantly, both of them are members of the Legislative Council. Being without a popular support base, the risk of anyone of them challenging the Yadav supremo in the future is minimised.

The Congress too is likely to accept a minority chief minister because there was a consensus at the CWC meeting on the Bihar situation on February 22 that the party needed Laloo's support to win back the minorities rather than the other backward classes. But the Congress would still like to guard itself against the BJP allegation of betraying the Dalit cause by forcing the RJD to accept a Dalit deputy chief minister. In such a case the choice will fall on either of the two former ministers, Ramai Ram or Kamal Paswan.

While the Bihar chess-board is being rearranged for the RJD's reinstatement in power, the administration is suffering the pangs of a brief transition. Governor S.S. Bhandari gives the impression of being in the driving seat, claiming that projects worth Rs 28,000 crore have been cleared by the Centre in a week flat. But with the issue of non- ratification of President's rule almost settled in Delhi, his audiences are thinning out. Those who can't depart are the hapless handpicked advisers rattled by Laloo's warning that "we shall come back and fix you".

-Sanjay Kumar Jha

Clearly, the Advani-Shinde talks proceeded on the assumption that the largest opposition party would do nothing to obstruct the ratification of President's rule in Bihar. On Sunday night, when Vajpayee returned from his foreign visits , a beaming Advani was there at the airport to welcome him. Everything seemed to be working according to plan.

What happened in the next seven days to upset the Government's calculations? First, the Government seriously underestimated the furore inside the BJP over Advani's remark stressing the need for an "apolitical" administration for Bihar. Bhandari may not have been the flavour of the month with Vajpayee, Advani or even RSS point man K. Sudarshan. But he did command a substantial support among RSS stalwarts like H.V. Seshadri. It was they who threatened hell if an old-timer like Bhandari was treated so shabbily. Following the governor's flaunting of his RSS association, the Government chose the line of least resistance and allowed him to return to Patna with honour intact.

This was just the excuse some Congressmen were looking for to hit out against the Government. "The Congress will never allow this to happen," said Leader of the Opposition Sharad Pawar. The Congress calculation was that with Bhandari back at the helm, Bihar would witness an administration that would strongly favour the BJP and its ally, the Samata Party. It would help consolidate the anti-Laloo Prasad Yadav forces around the two, strengthen "communal" forces and leave the Congress out in the cold.

Former Congress president Sitaram Kesri and former Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Tariq Anwar both pointed out that it was impossible for the Congress to fight on its own in Bihar and do well. In the 1998 election, the five Lok Sabha seats the party won in Bihar was on account of its understanding with Laloo.

Yet, even if Advani had managed the planned removal of Bhandari with more tact, it is unlikely that the Congress would have acquiesced in the ratification of President's rule. For the party, its critics say, Central rule is a political expediency. As Samata Party spokesperson Digvijay Singh caustically remarked: "Mrs Gandhi cited moral grounds to replace the chief minister in Orissa when three Christians were killed. But when 12 desi tribals are murdered she invokes constitutional provisions to protect the Bihar government."

At the CWC meeting last Monday, there was a division between those who wanted the party to project a "good governance" line and those who were influenced by realpolitik considerations. The first group consisted of K. Vijayabhaskara Reddy, Jitendra Prasada, Madhavrao Scindia, Pranab Mukherjee, Ambika Soni and Shinde. Pawar was characteristically non-committal, merely asking the party to be prepared for the consequences if the Government was defeated on Bihar in the Lok Sabha.

They were in a minority and the majority were inclined to favour Arjun Singh and A.K. Antony's view that the endorsement of President's rule in Bihar must be viewed in the larger context of supporting a "communal" government. "It took us 10 years to get rid of the untouchability tag among the minorities and the effort would have gone waste if we vote with the BJP," said a CWC member. Added Arjun Singh: "The Congress will not make a compromise with the RSS-BJP at any cost." This was also the view of nearly the entire Congress Parliamentary Party whose views were also taken into account by the leadership.

Of course, the apparent unanimity-not so evident in the Bihar unit of the party or even in Uttar Pradesh-was to some extent wonderfully orchestrated. Even before the CWC meeting, Sonia called on CPI(M) General Secretary H.S. Surjeet at his hospital room at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences. Next, she visited Kesri at his Purana Qila Road residence. Kesri's proximity to Laloo being well known and Surjeet's uncompromising anti-BJPism being an accepted feature of politics, it was clear what Sonia really wanted to hear. And the party willingly obliged. Even Prasada, who had sung a different tune at the CWC, said afterwards, "We prefer Laloo's rule in Bihar to the rule of the fascists."

It is not that the Congress wanted to use the Bihar vote in the Lok Sabha to bring the curtain down on Vajpayee. The party proceeded on the assumption that the Government would be made to sweat it out for a majority and this in turn would make the allies more demanding, thereby undermining the coalition's cohesiveness. "The Congress' aim was not so much to topple Vajpayee as to expose the fragility of the Government," said a senior leader. "This Government is morally crippled and on its last legs," gloated party spokesman Ajit Jogi.

The final Congress game plan to go for an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation and then blink at the last minute stemmed from two additional factors. First, unseating Vajpayee would have meant either propping up an alternative arrangement or risking an election. The party was unwilling to do either. Vajpayee on the other hand made the Bihar vote in the Lok Sabha a matter of confidence and threatened to resign if defeated. He dared Sonia to live up to her boast of being ready to face all eventualities. Despite the Congress victories in eight of the 11 assembly by-elections, Sonia hesitated. She would rather wait until the November elections in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Orissa are held. Secondly, given the precarious economic situation, the Congress is inclined to favour the BJP-led Government taking the necessary harsh steps and adding to its unpopularity. "Unless something is done fast even 10 Manmohan Singhs won't be able to make a difference," said the former finance minister. What he didn't add was that he would rather Yashwant Sinha was made the fall guy.

Finally, there is the ghost of Pachmarhi sitting uncomfortably on the heads of those Congressmen who are anxious to support an interim arrangement. If another coalition government is propped up in this Parliament, it will be as unstable as Vajpayee's fragile set-up. It is one thing for the Congress to restore bonhomie with Laloo, but it is another matter to sup collectively with the CPI(M) and Samajwadi Party. Nor is it merely a question of being constantly blackmailed on economic issues. The Congress-despite the less-than-expected turnout at Sonia's public meeting in Lucknow-has its eye on a possible recovery in Uttar Pradesh. "It's a toss up between the BJP and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh. The others are also-rans," says PCC chief Salman Khurshid. Such a recovery will be compromised if the party enters into another ramshackle arrangement with the Third Front at the Centre.

Despite temporary agreements on specific issues and some floor coordination in Parliament, the Congress and the Third Front have very different priorities. Whereas the likes of Deve Gowda would like to have another shy at the top job, after resurrecting the original United Front (including the National Conference and the Telugu Desam Party), the Congress would rather the BJP-led coalition broke up under the weight of internal contradictions. For the Congress, it pays to wait in the opposition benches while the Sangh Parivar engages in internecine warfare and the allies make more and more impossible demands on Vajpayee.

The only problem with this gradual strategy is history. None of the non-Congress governments since Morarji Desai completed a year in office. In March, Vajpayee will have run through 365 days and crossed a psychological hump. If he does that, he could emerge unburdened by the past. For the Congress, that would not be a happy development.