March 9, 1998

Will he allow "outside support"?

For the President, a way out of the maze is to let the Congress support the UF again from outside, that is if the Congress tally falls below that of the UF, or to let the UF play a "friendly match" with a Congress government. In the latter scenario, the UF can bark at the government but not bite. The Congress too can employ the same tactic as it did in the two UF years. In that event, the two unwilling horses will be yoked together to the carriage of a bad marriage. The yoke is nothing but the threat of yet another poll. That's elemental fear, and is the reason why CPI(M) General secretary H.S. Surjeet keeps the option on the Congress open. He talks of a "mechanism" to keep the BJP out of power. In the wake of the political crisis in Uttar Pradesh last week, the CPI(M) and the Congress danced in step with Mulayam Singh Yadav to defend Governor Romesh Bhandari's action. It was a prelude to the post-poll negotiations for outside support.

The trouble with this prescription is that the President has already had its bitter taste. On November 28 last year, the fateful day of withdrawal of Congress support to the UF government, N. Chandrababu Naidu, as convener of the UF, wrote to him a letter which read: "In the event of any exercise to form an alternative government, none of the constituents of the United Front shall extend support to any government led or supported by the BJP or any government led by the Congress." Later, Kesri too informed the President about his party's inability to break the deadlock. Its immediate upshot was the dissolution of the Lok Sabha. But it undoubtedly cast doubts in the President's mind about the "stability" and "viability" of governments supported from outside.

The outside-support phenomenon is again a subject on which the Constitution is silent. Article 75(3) only says that the Council of Ministers should be "collectively responsible" to the House of the People. How this condition is met -- whether from coalition partners or from those outside it -- is of no constitutional concern! The President must satisfy himself that the cat can catch mice. Its colour doesn't matter.

Can he ensure a viable solution?

How does the president live up to this famous advice from the late deng xiaoping? What holds the key is the President's ability to choose a prime minister, for which the Constitution gives him almost unfettered freedom. Constitutional expert Soli Sorabjee says that the President, in his choice of prime minister, can only be guided by "a prima facie opinion about a reasonable prospect of stability". But, in doing so, which are the tools at his disposal? Can he pick up a leaf from the recent Supreme Court judgement on the Kalyan Singh case and order the newly elected MPs to choose a prime minister by secret ballot? Sorabjee's answer is an emphatic no. "A floor test in Lucknow is a way of ascertaining who is in majority. The issues before the 12th Lok Sabha are entirely different."

It is also not feasible to ask the prospective prime minister to parade supporting MPs, as has happened in many states since the '70s. It is an insult to the Constitution, which puts the different arms of the republic, including the legislature, on the same pedestal. Perhaps the answer to the riddle lies in the President's own finding on why the Gujral government fell -- "no political combination in the Lok Sabha was in a position to offer or receive the lawfully valid support of the critical minimum number of MPs required to secure a majority in the House". If the BJP is unable to secure a majority with its allies, Vajpayee's chances of receiving the "lawfully valid support" of the "critical minimum number" will depend on a considered change of heart by some of the party's sworn enemies. The President will not allow horse-trading or anything that questions the legality of post-poll arrangements. For a Congress-UF coalition to pick up the reins, an acceptable leader must emerge from behind the wall of acrimony that separates them. And, to command the lawfully valid support, the leader must get armed with unqualified written support of the Congress and each of the 14 UF constituents. In the Congress lexicon, even written declarations are often not worth the paper on which they're written. Last April, Kesri had put it on paper that he'd support the Gujral government but his party welshed on the commitment within seven months. In the next few days, the President will leave his mark on history by choosing a prime minister who is acceptable to the new Lok Sabha for a reasonable period. In that exercise, a prima facie opinion based on the existing strength may not be adequate. Says Supreme Court lawyer R.K. Anand, who has defended a number of Congress leaders in court: "In 1996, the then President mechanically counted the numbers and invited the BJP first; it was an invitation to horse-trading."

So how will the judicious President solve the complex trigonometric puzzle of the BJP-Congress-UF? Those who have interacted with him, such as Nariman, would rather leave the job to the genius of the person. Nariman quotes British constitutional historian Walter Bagehot on the powers of the King: "You mustn't let in sunlight on magic, then it disappears."

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