March 9, 1998

Congress that a "Sonia wave" will catapult it to power, the party's leaders position themselves to take over as the country's next prime minister.

By Harish Gupta

Two words. That's what it takes for Congressmen to start dreaming. Sonia Gandhi's statement that "for now" she is not in the race for the Congress leadership has been the catalyst. Senior Congress leaders, having assumed that a "Sonia wave" will catapult the party to South Block, have begun a silent jockeying for power. The calculation is the Congress will do well enough in the elections to lead a non-BJP coalition government.

On such a hypothesis rests the current contest for becoming the Congress' third prime minister from outside the Nehru-Gandhi family. Suddenly political veterans are acting like excitable schoolboys in a bid to convince "madam" that they have the mettle. In 1991 too, it took 10 Janpath's blessings for P.V. Narasimha Rao to be anointed prime minister. Rao was no loyalist but with his advancing years, three bypass surgeries and clean image was seen as pliant. Today, the lady's choice is far wider. Having campaigned hard, Sonia can take credit for any improvement in the party's fortunes.

Officially, the Congress denies that Sonia wants to be the power behind the throne. Asks Sarbjit Singh, a party joint secretary with established pro-Sonia credentials: "Since a literate, learned and loyal Congress leader like Rao betrayed her, why should she trust anyone in the party and indulge in backseat driving?" Good argument but nobody's buying it, certainly not the self-appointed probable prime ministers. There are at least five of them -- Sitaram Kesri, N.D. Tiwari, Sharad Pawar, Arjun Singh and Manmohan Singh -- all of whom are convinced that they have what Sonia is seeking: a relatively untarnished public profile, vast reserves of loyalty, no known ambition beyond serving the family. With youth no longer on their side, they don't pose a threat in the future.

In his own estimation, Sitaram Kesri is the ideal candidate. The crowds outside his residence (7 Purana Qila Road, Delhi) may have disappeared, but he is not bothered for he has made a career of being a backroom boy. When the Jain Commission report became public, Kesri was not keen to withdraw support to I.K. Gujral's Government and precipitate a general election. Even so, he gave in to pressure from the Sonia circle. Further, his recent remark -- "I am only the party president, Soniaji is the mass leader" -- has provided ample proof of his servility. While his supporters say this will stand him in good stead when it comes to choosing a prime minister, others doubt whether Kesri's is the face that Sonia would want to project -- even as an interim measure.

At 82 and with cardiac surgeries behind him, Kesri is a long-term threat to nobody. This may make him acceptable to the other aspirants in the party. As the self-confessed chief Mandalite of the Congress, Kesri reckons he will win V.P. Singh's approval. He is also close to others in the United Front (UF), such as Mulayam Singh Yadav and H.S. Surjeet.

All this does not worry Tiwari. Nor do yesterday's lost chances. As he has been telling crowds in his constituency, "If you had elected me in 1991, I would have been prime minister and Nainital would have been on the world map. Don't make the same mistake twice."

Tiwari is rich in administrative experience, having been chief minister of Uttar Pradesh four times and looked after key Central ministries, including finance, in the Indira-Rajiv era. Additionally, his devotion to the family is unimpeachable. At a rally in Agra in the '70s, Sanjay Gandhi lost his chappals. Tiwari's followers still recall with pride that it was the then chief minister who found the chappals. Tiwari has other attributes to recommend for himself. He is ageing, has no family to promote and was resolute in his opposition to Narasimha Rao when the latter was prime minister.

Tiwari hopes all this will carry weight with Sonia. That he is a Brahmin from Uttar Pradesh will help, as the revival of the Congress in that state -- and the winning back of the upper-caste support lost to the BJP -- is imperative for any enduring Congress success. Since he was in the UF till a year ago, Tiwari is confident of cross-party support.

What may go against Tiwari is his history of indiscreet statements. This time, he has been careful to shun the press during the campaign. On the few occasions he met journalists, he spoke of how Sonia's arrival would ensure a "15 to 20 per cent swing" in favour of the Congress. Nobody takes the claim seriously but Tiwari's purpose of sounding more royalist than the queen is served.

On his part, Pawar too has been building bridges with Sonia. He met the lady before he left for canvassing in Maharashtra. To quote Praful Patel, an MP close to Pawar, "He has perfect relations with 10 Janpath." There is a perception that the largest chunk of Congress MPs in the 12th Lok Sabha will come from Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Thus Pawar and K. Vijayabhaskara Reddy -- his counterpart in Andhra Pradesh -- may resort to collective bargaining. Pawar's only problem is that there is nothing to prevent Reddy from becoming a contender himself.

Few Congressmen have kowtowed before Sonia as willingly as Arjun Singh. Despite this, Arjun's many rivals in his home state of Madhya Pradesh -- Digvijay Singh and Madhavrao Scindia among them -- could queer his pitch. He can hope to become acceptable but there are too many ifs -- the Congress must win in excess of 200 seats,Sonia's word must become law, and Arjun must win from Hoshangabad.

It was once thought that Manmohan Singh was Sonia's chosen one. When election '98 was still young, Murli Deora, president of the Congress' Mumbai unit, suggested Manmohan's name. Instantly, it was in the newspapers. What seemed to bolster the former finance minister's chances was the fact that Kesri has inducted him into the Congress Working Committee and that Sonia had made him a trustee of the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation.

Paradoxically, the oxygen of publicity effectively killed Manmohan's hopes. In interviews he spoke of his willingness to accept "any job" the party gave him. There was even a move to have him address a rally alongside Sonia in Chandigarh. Then came Manmohan's comment that Rao should not have been denied a party ticket and that the battle for prime minister was not a "beauty contest". All this was interpreted as being anti-Sonia, and Manmohan's dreams began to crumble.

This quintet apart, there are others who see themselves in the running. P.A. Sangma and A.K. Antony are the leading dark horses. Even so, whichever steed wins this derby, it is Sonia who will hold the bridle. Never has there been such intense competition for the sycophancy sweepstakes.

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