Voters Turn Away

Apathy towards mid-term polls is once again reflected in the turnout for the first two rounds of voting, say Yogendra Yadav and Alistar McMillan.

Will the turnout slide? In the past, mid-term elections have seen lower levels of turnout, and with complaints of apathy and election fatigue the expectation was that there would be a big drop in the numbers casting their vote. Projections based on the early figures released by the Election Commission for the first two rounds of voting suggest that the turnout is likely to be in the region of 56 per cent, a marginal drop from the 58 per cent recorded in 1996. If the low, initial estimates for second round turnout in states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are revised upwards, there could be a slight rise in the number of people who voted.

Mid-Term Polls Have Seen Fall in Turnout
1961	1971	1977	1980	1989	1991	1996	1998
61	*55	611	*57	62	*56	58	*56
* Mid-term polls Source: Election Commission; 1998 figures based on provisional data

The detailed results, which have some errors and omissions, cover 147 of the 222 constituencies polling in the first round of the elections, with statewise estimates for those areas polling in the second round.

The drop in turnout this time appears smaller than for previous mid-term polls. The mid-term elections of 1971, 1980 and 1991 all saw a much lower level of voting than the previous general elections, and despite two elections in as many years the electorate still seems keen to have its say.

Some distinct patterns can be discerned in the turnout in general elections since Independence. There was a general rise in electoral participation until 1967. Since then, the turnout has remained relatively stable.

The second democratic upsurge occurred in the post-Emergency period, when the groups which had remained peripheral to politics in the decades immediately following independence -- the Dalits, Adivasis, and the rural poor -- began to play a far more active role in the electoral process. Early trends of bigger turnouts in constituencies reserved for tribal candidates and those with a high numbers of Dalits suggest that this pattern of participation continues to be an important factor in national politics.

Voting in tribal constituencies has risen from less than 50 per cent before 1984 to levels that are virtually equal to the national average. It is more difficult to isolate the behaviour of Scheduled Caste voters as they are spread fairly evenly across the country, but in areas where Dalit concentration is high, the voting figures have risen noticeably.

It is a popularly belief that Muslims are more likely to vote in big numbers than any other community. There is little evidence to support this. Although turnout is slightly higher in constituencies with a large Muslim population, the difference is marginal, and may reflect higher Hindu voting in areas where there is political polarisation.

At the state level there is considerable increase in the polling in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan: possibly an indication of the high levels of competition in these areas. As for the dramatic events in Lucknow, the information is still too sketchy for any conclusions to be drawn about their affect on the elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Pre-election violence in Assam seems to have contributed to a big drop in voting there, with a fall of nearly 20 per cent from the 1996 figure. In Bihar, turnout figures have been submitted for only five of the constituencies polling in the first phase.

What is the importance of turnout figures? Who wins if fewer people turn up to vote and who loses if electors flock to the booths? Some argue that a high turnout will help the Congress, with pro-Sonia voters -- who would not normally have voted -- venturing out; others say that the high turnout in states like Rajasthan is an indicator of a BJP upsurge. However, these views are a matter of debate that will be settled only after the results have been counted.