The Nation: Congress; Me Vs You

Sonia defies political wisdom by making this month's assembly polls a clash between her and Vajpayee.

For everything that is true of the Congress, the opposite is also true. Fresh evidence of this great Nehruvian paradox is provided by the ongoing assembly election campaign in Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram. At one level, the Congress is battling for a provincial mandate, attacking the performance of BJP governments in two states and defending its own record in two others.

That, however, is not Sonia Gandhi's perception. The Congress president has converted these local polls into a national contest between Atal Bihari Vajpayee and herself -- and a referendum on the performance of the BJP-led Union Government. Explains Girija Vyas, party spokesperson: "State issues are no doubt important. But what about the BJP's so-called distinctiveness. Over six months, it has proved to be bogus."

On October 27, Sonia launched the Congress' Rajasthan campaign by attacking the Pokhran explosions at a rally in Bikaner. She was not making off the cuff remarks. Rather, it was a calculated attack on the Vajpayee Government which was responsible for "destroying the national consensus with the nuclear tests". With this Sonia seemed to be moving away from the party's earlier (admittedly guarded) approval of the nuclear explosions.

Mrs G's Methods

Sonia is treating these polls as a referendum on Vajpayee the prime minister.

In Delhi and Rajasthan this strategy will be added to the ruling BJP's poor record

In Madhya Pradesh it will neutralise state-level anti-incumbency feelings.

If competitive politics is presented as a "Sonia-Atal" tussle, the Congress will upstage the third force.

Should every assembly poll become a vote on Vajpayee, the BJP will be ever-nervous.

Senior party leaders don't see it that way though. Says K. Natwar Singh, the party's shadow foreign minister as also chief minister-designate for Rajasthan: "We are not shifting stands. We are only blaming the BJP for the mess created by it after the explosions." The comatose state of the Vajpayee administration will be a feature of the Congress' pre-election propaganda.

To Sonia's mind, such a strategy will serve two purposes. One, it will help her establish the Congress' supremacy as the principal non-BJP force in the country and dash any hopes the "third front" may have nurtured on that count. She wants to convert the election -- indeed, she wants to convert Indian politics -- into a straight bout between Vajpayee and herself. Thus, even state elections will be seen as a clash of the titans. Sneers Manish Tiwari, president, Youth Congress: "The BJP wanted to be given at least one chance to rule. Well what happened Mr Vajpayee?" Sonia's second purpose is simpler to understand: to exploit the public disgust at the BJP-led coalition's pathetic performance. The common manifesto for the coming polls is more an attack on the Union Government than, as is normal, a catalogue of promises. Every "achievement" which the BJP is touting has been torn to shreds.

The BJP's differences with Rashtrapati Bhavan on Article 356 and its advocacy of a constitutional reforms commission have been seen as attempts to "denigrate" the presidency and the Constitution. Pokhran II, which Home Minister L.K. Advani recently described as the BJP regime's most satisfying accomplishment, has been dismissed as the pivot of an ill-conceived foreign policy doctrine.

Argues an angry Natwar, "When we conducted the tests in 1974, the world was with us. There were no sanctions. We never wrote to anybody explaining why we conducted the tests." The implication is clear: by seeking to gatecrash into the nuclear club, the BJP has only caused problems for the country. The economic sanctions have hurt "vital projects in infrastructure" such as roads, power and communications. A direct link between the BJP's nuclear boast and the common man's woes was made at Bikaner when Sonia highlighted the fact that "Pokhran's villages lack drinking water". There was no information available on the status of Pokhran's water supply in 1974.

The manifesto is merciless: "Skyrocketing prices and a stagnant economy are putting the country ... into recession." The efforts to "Indianise" education also find mention: "Our secular heritage is constantly under threat." Decoded, Sonia is telling the voters of Rajasthan and Delhi that whether at the Centre or in the states, the BJP is the natural party of misgovernance. In Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram, she hopes this sentiment will neutralise the anti- incumbency factor.

Sonia has gone against conventional wisdom in distancing herself from Pokhran II. It is a bold gamble. If it pays off in the coming polls, Sonia will try to make every assembly election -- Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in 1999, Bihar and Maharashtra in 2000 -- a plebiscite on Atal Raj. Vajpayee will perennially be on probation.

All in all, Sonia hopes this month's polls will be the first step towards a Congress recapture of South Block, towards "good and ethical governance", as the manifesto puts it. Of course she hopes nobody will bring up Bofors in the interim.