The Nation: Elections: The Poll Jolt

This winter, the world plans to party; this winter, India's political parties plan to plan. It's not quite the millennium bash they expected but the country's politicians suddenly find that they are faced with not just a general election. For, in at least eight states they face the possibility of simultaneous assembly elections. The plans for the millennium of many of these leaders will depend to a large extent on the diktat from Nirvachan Sadan, the headquarters of the Election Commission (EC) -- to hold elections in their states along with the Lok Sabha polls or let the assemblies run their terms which extend from December, as in the case of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, to April in Bihar. From the BJP and the Congress to the Telugu Desam and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, leaders are flooding the EC with petitions arguing the pros and cons of early elections, citing reasons ranging from "wasteful expenditure" to "monsoon and floods". The truth, however, is that they are all plugging for dates which they think will suit their parties best. In the end, of course, it is the voter who will have his say.

Ruling Party: The TDP is totally averse to holding the assembly polls along with the Lok Sabha elections.
Main Opposition: The Congress is in favour of both the polls in September.

Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu does not have to fall back on his laptop to learn that the last time Andhra Pradesh opted for simultaneous polls to the Lok Sabha and the state Assembly, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) got roundly thrashed -- in 1989, the party lost power in the state and its Lok Sabha strength fell from 26 to 2. So Naidu is working intensely to separate the parliamentary elections from the assembly polls that are due in December 1999.

On the other hand, the Congress is rooting for simultaneous polls that, party leader P. Janardhan Reddy argues, would save public money. But some Congressmen also believe that an early election could be detrimental. They feel that the party has cut a sorry figure following its role in the ouster of the Vajpayee government. The party is, therefore, veering around to the view that Lok Sabha elections be delayed till September and the assembly polls advanced.

Ruling Party: The Sena-BJP alliance is expected to get a severe drubbing in the polls because of its poor performance.

Main Opposition: It is a chance for the Congress to regain lost ground but the factionalism in the party could well see it frittering away the opportunity.

Early last week, Maharashtra Chief Minister Narayan Rane had valiantly declared that the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in Maharashtra would be more than glad to face assembly polls along with the Lok Sabha elections. A day later Rane changed tack, saying that they would be willing only if the Lok Sabha polls were to be held in September or thereafter.What caused this volte-face? Senior BJP leaders in Mumbai believe that it would be "suicidal" for the ruling alliance to face an early poll. "The state Government's performance has not been very good. It would be foolhardy to risk our Lok Sabha seats with the performance of the state Government," says one.

The Congress has typically and bravely pushed for simultaneous polls, though like the ruling alliance, it too is not sure how it will benefit. Senior bureaucrats in the state believe that the Shiv Sena-BJP combine will take a severe drubbing in the assembly polls. But they also put a question mark on the ability of a splintered Congress to take advantage of it. As one senior Congressman puts it, "The problem is we are so confident of winning that there are about half a dozen candidates queuing up for the chief ministership." These include Sushil Kumar Shinde, Chhaggan Bhujbal, Vilasrao Deshmukh, Govindrao Adik, Sharad Pawar's brother-in-law Padamsinh Patil and, of course, Pawar himself. In other words, that means Congressmen may yet again do what they have perfected into a fine art: topple their own candidates.

People's Cup of Woes

"As the Indian cricket team prepares to play in the cricket World Cup we will get ready for our own version of the World Cup," Chief Election Commissioner M.S. Gill said with a tired smile outside the Rashtrapati Bhavan on April 26. But while the world awaits the start of the World Cup in England, none, not even the players, was keen on the desi cup. Elections in India mean colossal expenditures. The elections to the 13th Lok Sabha are estimated to cost the exchequer anywhere between Rs 950 and Rs 1,000 crore, an increase of over Rs 300 crore since the last poll. Add to this the thousands of crores of rupees expected to be spent by the parties and contestants.In recent times, the life of the Lok Sabha may have shortened, but if voter turnout is any indication, democracy is thriving. In 1991, 56.73 per cent of the electorate exercised its franchise. The figure went up to 57.94 per cent in 1996 and in 1998, 61.97 per cent of the 60.5 crore voters cast the ballot. It just shows politics is just as popular as cricket.

Ruling Party: For the ruling JD it's deja vu. If it was the Hegde-Deve Gowda feud in 1989, it's Patel vs Deve Gowda now.

Main Opposition: The Congress has everything to gain. The Lok Shakti-BJP combine hopes for the sympathy factor.

As in Andhra Pradesh, the incumbent Janata Dal (JD) Government in Karnataka too is dreading the prospect of the assembly and Lok Sabha elections being held simultaneously. The opposition Congress is relishing that very prospect -- though it is keen on simultaneous polls, it would want some time for any sympathy for Vajpayee to dissipate. The BJP-Lok Shakti combine, whose priorities lie in the Lok Sabha, is keeping its fingers crossed for an early parliamentary election, preferably in June itself.

The JD is apprehensive that history will repeat itself. With the party's state unit being sharply divided between the factions loyal to Chief Minister J.H. Patel and former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda, the poll scenario looks frighteningly similar to the situation that existed in 1989. Then elections had been held simultaneously and the JD had been routed thanks to the rivalry between Ramakrishna Hegde and Deve Gowda. Now, it's the turn of the Patel-Deve Gowda rivalry to spoil the party's electoral chances.

Ruling Party: The RJD is against advancing assembly polls. Wants to test the waters in the Lok Sabha elections first. Tie-up with Congress likely.

Main Opposition: The BJP-Samata combine hopes to cash in on the growing resentment against the Rabri regime.

In a state where democracy is at best a farce, people consider even the talk of elections a nightmare. That's why when the BJP-led government at the Centre collapsed and mid-term polls loomed large, no political party demanded simultaneous assembly elections. "Where is the need for advancing the polls?" asks Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Mohammad Nematullah, a loyalist of Laloo Prasad Yadav.

The RJD clearly wants to gauge the mood of the voters first in the Lok Sabha polls and then work out its strategy for the assembly election due in April next year. After Laloo's unstinted backing for Sonia in recent weeks, it is clear that the RJD will tie up with the Congress for both the polls. But the Congress languishes as a marginal force in Bihar, while there is increasing resentment against the Rabri Devi Government.

As for the Opposition BJP-Samata combine, it is not in favour of advancing the assembly elections. Only if the Lok Sabha polls are held in September-October will it demand simultaneous elections. However, the final strategy would be worked out by the Samata National Council which is meeting on May 5.

Ruling Party: The Congress wants to delay the polls so that memories of its past misrule are wiped out.

Main Opposition: The BJD-BJP will highlight Gamang's 'dubious' vote that toppled the Vajpayee government.

The opposition BJP-Biju Janata Dal (BJD) combine is pressing for simultaneous elections in Orissa because it thinks that the groundswell of sympathy for Vajpayee would rub off on the assembly polls as well. To that extent, the Opposition stands to gain. Officially though, the demand is couched in economic reasons. "The state cannot bear the burden of Rs 500 crore to be spent on another election," says BJD MLA Bijoy Mohapatra.

But more than economics, the Opposition feels that the Congress, because of its brazen power play, and Chief Minister Giridhar Gamang, because of his "dubious" vote, have been discredited before the people. The state Congress though is opposed to the idea of simultaneous elections. "Why bring about premature death of an assembly that still has life?" asks Gamang. For one, Gamang needs time to consolidate the party's position in the state. And he has just about begun: only last week he announced a hefty 60 per cent hike in wages for tendu leaf pluckers -- essentially tribals who constitute 38 per cent of the voters. Another major decision was the hike in stipends for SC and ST students staying in hostels. About 1.5 lakh tribal students are likely to benefit.

Gamang is trying to win back the tribals to the Congress fold and he needs time for that. And according to Congressmen, the farther the assembly elections, the fainter the memories of J.B. Patnaik's misrule. As one senior minister says, "Time is the best healer. We intend to heal in the next 11 months before facing the assembly elections."

Polls in June-July may be expedient for some parties wanting to get back at their rivals, but it certainly won't help people wanting to exercise their franchise in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Rains and landslides in the hill states at that time of the year make the exercise even more difficult. Besides, splits and realignments in Manipur and Arunachal have placed ruling parties in a delicate position. The Manipur Congress witnessed a bizarre split in 1997. Then Assembly Speaker W. Nipamacha Singh overthrew Congress chief minister Rishang Keishing and floated the Manipur State Congress Party. But during his 18-month rule, Nipamacha has found it hard to keep his band of 31 MLAs in the 60-member House together. In Arunachal, only this January the diminutive Mukut Mithi led a rebellion in the recently formed Arunachal Congress and ousted chief minister Gegong Apang who ruled the state for close to two decades. Mithi then rejoined the Indian National Congress. Given the dramatic turn of events in these two states, an early poll is something the ruling parties dread.

The ruling Sikkim Democratic Front was the only party that talked of an early poll much before the events in Delhi overtook everything else. But, as Chief Minister Pawan Kumar Chamling now says, he was only "testing the waters".