August 10, 1998

Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh: India's population revolution

Jairam Ramesh

Kerala is now part of development folklore. Its social indicators are world class. It has a female literacy rate of well above 90 per cent, even male life expectancy of over 70 years and an infant mortality rate of around 13 per 1,000 live births. Its population growth rate is about 1.2 per cent per year. While Kerala is admired, it has been considered unreplicable because of its unique social history, matriarchal traditions and political culture. But now Tamil Nadu has emulated Kerala in family planning.

The key milestone in demographic behaviour is the replacement level of fertility. This is called the total fertility rate (TFR) and is defined as the average number of children a woman will have if she experiences the current fertility pattern throughout her reproductive span. The magic number for the TFR is 2.1. After about 20-25 years of reaching this level, the population growth rate becomes zero. Kerala reached replacement levels of fertility in 1988. Tamil Nadu achieved this in 1993. Its population growth rate is now around 1.3 per cent per year.

At first sight, Tamil Nadu's success is intriguing. Its female literacy rate is now 56 per cent, roughly on a par with Punjab. Its infant mortality rate in 1996 was 54 per 1,000, compared to Punjab's 52. Punjab's per capita expenditure on family welfare is about 60 per cent more than Tamil Nadu's. Punjab is a smaller state and has the same level of son-fixation as Tamil Nadu. Yet, Tamil Nadu has reduced its birth rate dramatically since 1980. Punjab, on current reckoning, will not reach replacement levels of fertility till 2019.

Way back in the '20s, leading citizens of Madras set up an organisation called the Malthusian League. "Periyar" Ramaswamy Naicker, the great social reformer, advocated family planning. Independent India's first census commissioner was an ICS officer of the Tamil Nadu cadre, R.A. Gopalaswamy. He incurred the permanent wrath of Jawaharlal Nehru by suggesting the result of the 1951 census -- which put India's population at 350 million, vastly more than commonly expected -- was the outcome of "improvident maternity".

Gopalaswamy recommended terminal methods to control India's population. He was banished to his state for heresy. Thereafter, there were other outstanding family planning missionaries in the IAS. Most notably, T.V. Antony, who retired as Tamil Nadu's chief secretary and was nicknamed Tubectomy Vasectomy Antony.

But fundamentally, it was the political leadership of Kamaraj and Soundaram Ramachandran -- and later from the DMK and AIADMK -- which established an effective family planning programme. NGOs too have helped.

The experience of American academic Myron Weiner is revealing here. Some years ago, he wrote The Child and State in India, in which he suggested making primary education truly compulsory. He sent copies of his book to various political leaders. The only enthusiastic response he got was from J. Jayalalitha, then Tamil Nadu's chief minister. Her record in backing social programmes was impressive, like had been that of her mentor, M.G. Ramachandran.

It was MGR who launched the midday meal programme that now reaches six to seven million children. Tamil Nadu has also pioneered a number of special nutrition programmes and schemes to provide social security to those in the unorganised sector. In 1995, Manmohan Singh replicated these nationally.

The hallmarks of Tamil Nadu's success have been a better health service and an innovative communications campaign. Extensive primary health infrastructure has facilitated this. Like Kerala, Tamil Nadu has used sterilisation as the most common contraceptive method. The approach was targeted at younger couples in early stages of fertility.

Next, Andhra Pradesh will reach a TFR of 2.1 in 2001 or 2002. This state's achievement too flies in the face of conventional wisdom. It has a low female literacy rate (36 per cent), high infant mortality (66 per 1,000 live births) and a low mean age of marriage for women (17.8 years). Further, unlike Tamil Nadu, it has no tradition of family planning advocacy.

Yet, Andhra Pradesh's fertility rates are falling rapidly. Perhaps N.T. Rama Rao's social welfare programmes empowered people. An active women's movement has taken root. Food security through fair price shops has been extensive and effective. Expenditure on social welfare programmes -- at 3.3 per cent of the state's GDP -- leaves other states trailing.

Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh show what is possible given sensitive political leadership, a proactive development administration and an overall ethos conducive to social welfare. The two states exemplify what political scientist James Manor has called the power of "regional progressives". They also show that theories are useless. Each state has its own dynamics.

What works is people's desire for family planning. Even today, in Uttar Pradesh there is a 30 per cent unmet demand. The failure of the Government to meet this demand for family planning is the real tragedy, not just poverty or illiteracy.

The author is secretary of the AICC's Economic Affairs Department. The views expressed here are his own.

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