By Dorab R. Sopariwala

Ban opinion polls after campaigning begins", shrieks one headline. "Say no to exit polls", howls another. All this brouhaha is the outcome of the meetings that the Election Commission (EC) has held with various political parties. It is a matter of no surprise -- but of considerable regret -- that while the three wise men at Nirvachan Sadan (the EC's headquarters in Delhi) were busy meeting a cross-section of political parties and personalities, they did not deem it necessary to invite leading opinion polling organisations to present the other side of the case. So much for the scientific temper, the dedication to fairness and, if I may add, the wisdom of the EC.

What are the objections that most political parties have put forward for the banning of opinion polls once campaigning begins?

"Opinion polls influence voting behaviour, so they should be banned," say the "ban men", if I may be permitted a neologism. Some studies have suggested that there is a bandwagon effect -- people rushing to support the winner. Others claim that there is an underdog effect -- voters backing the apparent loser. But is there any consistent evidence to support the contention that opinion polls have a net influence on voting behaviour? No. Moreover, most of India's polls are carried in the press -- mainly English-language press -- whose reach is quite limited.

Yet, opinion polls do help strategic voting. For instance, if the poll shows that the candidate of my preferred party has no hope, I may move my vote to my second preference. But what's wrong in equipping the voter with information so that he can decide what is best for him?

Next, some "ban men" say, "The sample is too small." Yet others say, in dark asides, "These guys are all available for a price" -- and they should know! In fact, most national opinion polls have samples of well over 10,000. Are the "ban men" aware that when an opinion pollster gets the results wrong, his normal commercial business is adversely affected?

Would a reputable organisation risk 98 per cent of its business -- for most market research companies, election surveys comprise no more than 2 to3 per cent of their business -- to take a chance on an inadequate sample? No way. Also, would a publication like, say, India Today risk an inadequate sample or a disreputable agency? No way, I would say, even without checking with the editor.

"But they do get it wrong, don't they?" say the "ban men" gleefully. Of course they do -- sometimes; and not only in India but the world over. All samples have an error. Do the "ban men" know that a 1 per cent swing in votes for a major all-India party means a difference of 15-20 seats in the Lok Sabha?

So a good forecast with an error of plus or minus 3 per cent could mean that a party gets 45-60 more seats -- or fewer. So the party wins or loses an election on that 3 per cent. It's a tough business, friends -- both yours and ours.

What would be the result of banning polls after campaigning for, say, a general election begins? First, you would be left with old results that do not take into account the effects of the campaigning. Second, there would be clandestine leaks by politicians of conflicting results of polls that may not even have been conducted. No reputable polling agency would be named and no major publication would put its name on the line. So the public would be at the mercy of quacks, charlatans and crooks with nothing to lose.

Thus, there is little to commend this utterly ill-conceived and retrograde step of banning election forecasts, even if it were legal to do so. Incidentally, under which part of Article 19(2) of the Constitution would the ban be sought? Would it be for reasons of "security of state" or "public order" or would it be for "decency or morality"?

As far as exit polls are concerned, there is absolutely no case for banning them. Admittedly, there may be a case for withholding the results -- as pollsters have often voluntarily done -- until the completion of voting.

INDIA VOTES

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