The Nation: Jayalalitha; Amma-Mia

Jayalalitha successfully played ducks and drakes with Vajpayee. It's now Sonia's turn to experience the AIADMK chief. Will the Congress fare any better.

Woman Power: Jaya equated her cup of tea with Sonia to a political earthquake.

The more you indulge him, the more will he bully you. He may become a terror.
-- Benjamin Spock, on handling a spoilt child

When she was young she would get scared if someone spoke loudly. She would plead, please speak softly.
-- Cho Ramaswamy on Jayalalitha

Unlike the beautiful people who see it as an appealing fad, Indian politicians have never really had any use for psychoanalysis. In coming to decisions, they have preferred traditional, time-tested skills of intuition and naked self-interest. In a year of turbulence, the shenanigans of AIADMK supremo, Puratchi Thalaivi J. Jayalalitha, have become a national obsession. She has broken every rule, ruffled every feather and defied every convention. From being a hard-nosed political player with an uncanny instinct for survival, she has graduated to being a political psychopath.

In normal circumstances, she would have been banished into the wilderness or made to pay for her sins. But these are not normal times. The delicate arithmetic of the 12th Lok Sabha has ensured that Jayalalitha's 18 MPs hold the key to survival of this Government and the possible formation of another one. Without her formidable presence, no jigsaw puzzle is complete. Love her, despise her, this Amma of Chennai's Poes Garden doesn't intend to disappear in a hurry. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee knows it, as does Congress President Sonia Gandhi.

Last week, in a style befitting visiting royalty, Jayalalitha breezed into the capital. She departed after adding to the devastating tremors on the Richter scale. The after-effects were awesome -- a nervous, if angry, government and a drooling, expectant opposition. In the political earthquake rocking Delhi, Jayalalitha was the predictable epicentre.

JAYA IN THE DOCK

Colour TV scam: Arrested briefly in December 1996 for allegedly receiving a Rs 8.53 crore kickback from TV manufacturing firms. Case before Special Court.
Tansi land case: Accused of misusing position as CM to acquire 3.1 acres of land for Jaya Publications from Tamil Nadu Small Industries Corporation. Witness trials on.
Pleasant Stay Hotel case: Charged with exempting the Kodaikanal hotel from Hill Area Development Rules. Witness trials on.
Disproportionate wealth: Under investigation by Vigilance Directorate for alleged acquisition of over 100 properties and assets worth Rs 66.65 crore. Case before Special Court.
Granite-quarry scandal: Accused of receiving Rs 39 crore for granting quarry licences to private exporters. Under investigation.
US dollar scam: CBI still probing money-laundering charges against Jayalalitha receiving a birthday cheque of $300,000 from Bankers Trust.
Income-tax irregularities: Chargesheeted by the Economic Offences Department for concealing income of Rs 1.04 crore in 1993-94 from tax authorities. Inquiry on.
Meena Advertisers' case: Allegedly waived Rs 2 crore rights fee to be paid by the agency to the government during the 1995 saf Games. Under investigation.
Coal-import scam: Accused of causing a loss of Rs 6.5 crore to the government in the import of 20 lakh tonnes of coal from Australia for TNEB. Probe still on.

This time, however, there was a significant difference. In the past, whether demanding the instant dismissal of M. Karunanidhi's DMK Government in Tamil Nadu, the removal of Commerce Minister Ramakrishna Hegde, flaying Vajpayee's Cauvery settlement or cutting Home Minister L.K. Advani down to size, Jayalalitha had threatened to "weigh her options". As she clutched "old friend" Sonia's hand for the benefit of the cameras at Janata Party President Subramaniam Swamy's tea party last Monday, she let it be known that the option was available. "It is clear," rued a cabinet minister, "that she will be the first rat to jump the ship."

It may be some time before the lifeboats are lowered but Jayalalitha is readying for that eventuality. Before the 1998 general election she had compared the possibility of Sonia becoming prime minister to a "national tragedy". "It would be a disgrace to this country if we found no one other than an Italian to lead us." That seems a long time ago. Now, courtesy the relentless efforts of Swamy -- who has a one-point mission to destabilise the BJP-led Government -- and Congress Working Committee member R.K. Dhawan, she is understood to be talking directly to Sonia on the telephone. If things go according to the most optimistic expectations of Congressmen, she will meet Sonia next week en route to Punjab to attend the tercentenary celebrations of the Khalsa. This time it could be one-to-one, with lots of hard negotiations culminating in the AIADMK voting against the Government in a no-confidence motion during the second half of the budget session of Parliament. Sonia's terse comment in Kochi that the Parliament session will be "most crucial" is ominous.

A Sonia-Jayalalitha deal may be in the offing but its timing is still a matter of conjecture. Burdened with several criminal cases where convictions could both land her in prison and attract electoral disqualification, Jayalalitha's prime objective is to delay the day of judgement as long as possible. Preferably until the Tamil Nadu assembly election in 2001. The Vajpayee Government has cooperated with her in this endeavour. It has handed over the Law Ministry to the AIADMK, transferred 46 minor cases from the special courts to the regular bench and even secured the appointment of a CBI director who is not known to be inimical to her. It has even put its best legal foot forward in the Supreme Court arguing against the special courts. In short, it has quietly done Jayalalitha's bidding.

Despite a suggestion that she was goaded by the fear of a renewed Enforcement Directorate investigation, the general reaction to her recent flip-flop is one of consternation. Says journalist Cho Ramaswamy: "The BJP would have willingly helped her. A clever person would have worked silently. She has humiliated them and you can't expect them to oblige." Indeed, the mood among the BJP and its allies is one of betrayal. Vajpayee spoke about allies who "have not shown the mental preparedness to accept the dharma of coalition governments". Trinamool Congress' Mamata Banerjee who had earlier made common cause with Jayalalitha exploded and described her as "most corrupt". And a cabinet minister went so far as to dub her a terrorist.

The bewilderment at Jayalalitha's cosying up to "tested friends from the past who have in 1996 been cleansed of undesirable elements" is all the more because there is no way a Sonia-led government can oblige Jayalalitha more than the present dispensation. For a start, a new government will be dependent on constituents of the United Front who have no love lost for the lady. Indeed, complications arising from Tamil Nadu rivalries could even make such an arrangement still-born. Which is why the Congress is proceeding with utmost circumspection even as it maintains the drive to expose the fragility of the Vajpayee Government. Jayalalitha's defection from the BJP-led front doesn't guarantee a replacement for Vajpayee.

Second, it is well known that any alternative government in this Lok Sabha will, at best, be an interim administration. Given the dismal experience of coalitions, the Congress -- backed by recent opinion polls -- believes that a snap election will lead to a decisive verdict in favour of Sonia. Jayalalitha could be part of the winning arrangement but her strategic clout in any Congress government would be nothing compared to her present influence.

Finally, there is a big question mark over Sonia's ability to handle Jayalalitha. With his boyish charm, Rajiv Gandhi maintained a good rapport with the AIADMK supremo. P.V. Narasimha Rao wasn't as cordial. But Rao was fortunate that Jayalalitha was preoccupied with her chief ministership and was unwilling to have any of her MPs holding office in Delhi. Her massive defeat in 1996 coincided with the end of Rao's innings in Delhi. She was in the wilderness, a lonely figure fighting Karunanidhi's persecution and Sitaram Kesri didn't pay any heed to her. Slighting under that rebuff, she teamed up with the BJP to effect a spectacular comeback. Vajpayee accorded her prima donna status but she demanded the total subversion of the state for her personal ends. She also couldn't stomach the BJP's independent equations with other players in Tamil Nadu like Petroleum Minister V. Ramamurthy and MDMK leader Vaiko. The All Fool's Day crisis assumed a serious dimension because the offending statement was made by Power and Parliamentary Affairs Minister P.R. Kumaramangalam, who, a fortnight earlier had organised a BJP show of strength in Trichy. Jayalalitha believes she is the sole gateway to Tamil Nadu.

If Sonia is willing to settle on these terms, she may yet establish a viable mutually exploitative relationship with Jayalalitha. However, the Congress president's imperious aloofness and her determination to restore one-party dominance doesn't auger well. Neither does the fact that many of Jayalalitha's utterances have a concealed sub-text. For example, despite her public fulminations against Defence Minister George Fernandes' apparent mishandling of the Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat issue, Jayalalitha did not touch upon the subject during her meeting with the prime minister. Her central concern was the removal of Ramamurthy from the Petroleum Ministry. Says Frontline editor N. Ram: "Her agenda is to get out of her corruption-charged image. She now takes up issues that give her a better image." Like addressing women activists on internal democracy in political parties.

The harsh truth, as Sonia is yet to discover, is that Jayalalitha is not what she seems. What she says is not what she really means. After a year of trying, Vajpayee and the rest of the coalition seem to have given up. In a war of nerves and blackmail, Sonia can hope to win by out-Jayalalithaing Jayalalitha. More experienced players have tried. Only Swamy appears to have succeeded. A possible reason why she is now playing his game.

JAYA ANTI-SPEAK
L.K. Advani "He is a home minister without any concern for the nation's security and is working in tandem with extremist outfits. A man suffering from selective amnesia."	Pramod Mahajan "I do not answer every Tom, Dick and Harry. We are a responsible party. People close to Vajpayee took hefty bribes to transfer enforcement director Bezbaruah."	George Fernandes "What prompted him to describe China as threat No. 1? Why are there still no answers on Bhagwat's removal? Fernandes must be shifted to a less sensitive ministry."	V. Ramamurthy "The Petroleum Ministry originally belongs to the AIADMK. The minister must be changed even if there is no immediate cabinet reshuffle."