July 12, 1998
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Asia
Unpacific In an era of regional powers, will the US deem India one? By Pramit Pal Chaudhuri FIRE IN THE EAST
In his worldview, the sole yardstick by which to measure nations is military power. With the ability to build chemical, bacteriological and nuclear weapons spreading from Iraq to North Korea, the US war machine is being rendered impotent. Once a country is armed with such weapons and missiles to deliver them, it becomes impervious to US military assault. Where once only the Soviet Union could threaten the US, "now there will be many". The book argues the world is seeing a new nuclear era, an Asian nuclear age. Bracken, however, doubts Asia is up to the challenge this poses. He gives a number of reasons for his pessimism. First, Asia's poor history of alliance building and multilateral cooperation. The Asian security tradition is every man for himself. Second, missiles have wrecked the safety valve once provided by Asian geography. "Asia is running out of room: room for political and military manoeuvring; room to buffer relations between armed powers; and room to insulate domestic crises from spilling over into the international system." Third, Asia remains entrenched in the age of nationalism. Unlike the ideology driven US-Russian nuclear rivalry, the Asian nuclear age will be nationalistic: "Each state in Asia sees the world in its own terms ... and frames its nuclear ambitions accordingly." Finally, Asian countries lack the organisational and command skills to keep their armies and diplomats from stumbling into war. The author cites the politicised intelligence services of India and Pakistan. Pakistan is dismissed as "desperate and trigger happy". This is Bracken's Asia: unstable regimes, ignorant political leaders, weak institutions and chock a block with atom bombs and killer bacteria. Broadly speaking his argument is not unsound. However he overstates his case, notably on nationalism. For example, there was more than flag flying behind the Pokhran tests. Also, no learning curve is projected. Asia's descent into trouble is portrayed as inevitable. Admittedly, the Kargil conflict buttresses Bracken's point of view. But the real test will be what lessons Pakistan derives from the affair. Bracken weighs various US responses to the coming fires in the east, ranging from withdrawal to pre-emptive war. A firepower worshipper, he advocates a restructured US military capable of operating across great distances. He also likes the idea of the US allying with regional powers, like India in south Asia. That policy would mean accepting the Pokhran tests as "beneficial" and supporting India's domination of Pakistan. As western power recedes, a world order based on regional powers "is likely to look much less shocking than it does today".
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Those
who fret about the US' omniscience will be reassured by Paul Bracken's belief that this
state of affairs is illusory. They will be pleased at his assertion that the challenger
will be Asia. They may appreciate his argument that the great leveller is the nuclear bomb
and other weapons of mass destruction. However, Bracken does not believe Asia will be the
better for all this. 
