July 12, 1999
|
|
|
|
KARGIL WAR:
DIPLOMACY War Over Peace The search for an end to hostilities still flounders between a wary India and a Pakistani army that looks at withdrawal as an embarrassing defeat. By Manoj Joshi
Just how strong the feelings are can be gauged by the stormy response that Defence Minister George Fernandes' offer of a safe passage to the intruders evoked. So sensitive is the subject that a US proposal for a ceasefire is being kept under wraps by the Cabinet Committee on Security. Indeed, the government's position is that US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Gibson Lanpher's visit to Delhi last fortnight was merely to brief Indian officials on the discussions he and US Central Command Chief General Anthony Zinni had in Islamabad. According to a senior government adviser, Naik's mission was "a private effort by a sober and reasonable man" to end the conflict. Just how private the visit was can be debated since he flew in on a Pakistan Air Force aircraft carrying a message from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. But what is significant is that Naik's visit was leaked to the media in Islamabad by elements who do not take too kindly to efforts to end the war. The government has been suitably vague about the nature of Mishra's mission. On the other hand, it has not denied MEA Joint Secretary Vivek Katju's visit to Islamabad at the same time. Somewhat coyly the MEA spokesman suggested that such visits were routine for the officer. His mission, according to government sources, was to convey tapes of recorded conversations to civilian officials in Islamabad. This would appear to be in line with the government's belief, flowing from the text of the taped conversation between Pakistan Army Chief Pervez Musharaff and his Chief of Staff Lt General Mohammed Aziz, that the Sharif Government was not privy to the Pakistan Army's Kargil operation. India doesn't seem terribly keen to offer Pakistan the face-saving formula it wants: a ceasefire leading to the intruders' withdrawal. Having been singed by Pakistan earlier, the Vajpayee government is wary. With the public mood favouring an even tougher military approach, the government does not want to confront a backlash prior to the general elections. It also has to ensure that whatever be its diplomatic approaches, it can't be seen facilitating third-party mediation. So far the international community has been following Delhi's cue. Official spokespersons in the US and UK have made it clear that they do not believe any mediation will help and that Pakistan must end the intrusion. China's response to Sharif's Beijing airdash suggests a guarded neutrality, no matter what Pakistani officials may claim. Naik's statement in Islamabad that he expected the directors of military operations of both sides to work out the modalities of withdrawal soon was predictably denied by both India and Pakistan. This is not surprising given the sensitive nature of the operation. But while there are indications that some kind of an understanding could be round the corner there are visible counter-currents that could make the conflict a long and bitter affair. No matter how it is packaged, a Pakistani withdrawal will be seen as a defeat for Musharraf and could well cost him his job. A cornered military could strike out at the Sharif Government, something that India really doesn't want. The challenge before the diplomats is to work out an arrangement that doesn't seem a zero-sum outcome. Extricating Pakistan from the predicament it has landed itself is in India's interest not just because it will avert the threat of a nuclear war. The positions captured till now show just how well entrenched the intruders are and how determined they are to extract a heavy toll of Indian lives. The army has not shied away from the difficult task of evicting the intruders but is it fair to ask it fight on with so many jawans getting killed? Managing such an arrangement isn't easy. Nor can it be, as Congress spokesman K. Natwar Singh and former prime minister I.K. Gujral want, a public one. If the government follows its present track, the Pakistani adventure in Kargil can become that country's crowning blunder. The measured Indian response and the international support for the sanctity of the LoC could well aid in bolstering India's 50-year-old grand strategy in Kashmir: formal division of the state with the LoC as the permanent border. |
|
Issue Contents | Write to us | Subscriptions | Syndication BUSINESS TODAY | INDIA TODAY PLUS | COMPUTERS TODAY © Living Media India Ltd |
 |
 |
The Kargil conflict could soon come to
an end after all. If last week's disclosures of "secret" diplomatic missions by
former Pakistan foreign secretary Niaz Naik and Business and Political Observer Editor
R.K. Mishra are any indication, military action may not be the only solution available to
clear Pakistani intruders from the Indian side of the loc. The two countries seem on the
verge of a withdrawal deal but with passions running high on both sides it could get
complicated. 
