States: Bihar; The Winning Hand

India Today
October 12,1998

BIHAR
The Winning Hand

Vananchal seems headed for the cold storage as Laloo's "unified Bihar" call gets cross-party support.

By Farzand Ahmed and Sanjay Kumar Jha

laloo with Rabri Devi Things have never looked so good for Bihar supremo and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Laloo Prasad Yadav for a long, long time. His wife Rabri Devi's Government has survived the Centre's efforts to dismiss it, the RJD Government in the state has secured a vote of confidence in the Assembly and he has managed to create a new emotive issue in the state -- a "unified Bihar".

Till just a few months back, Laloo was in jail for his involvement in the multi-crore fodder scam and his political future seemed to be under a cloud. But suddenly all the pieces have fallen into place -- just as he had planned.

When Laloo unexpectedly changed his mind on the creation of a separate Vananchal state comprising 18 districts of southern Bihar, there was apprehension that it would create a furore in the state. But protests against his rejection of Vananchal were confined to the southern region where some supporters of a separate state went on a rampage, erasing the word "Bihar" from every government signboard. There are some, of course, who predict dire consequences. Says Congress chief whip in the Assembly Furquan Ansari: "A mental division has been created. The way Laloo is trying to instigate the people over the issue, there is danger of violence and bloodletting." But Laloo seems unfazed. In fact, he has not only engineered the support of the Assembly but also managed to rally MLAs from other political parties to the idea of a "unified Bihar".

The reasons are not far to seek. To back his claim, Laloo has raised the spectre of a Bihar minus Vananchal as a land of misery. Moreover, anti-Vananchal lobbyists say it is not necessary to create a separate state to ensure a region's development. Social anthropologist Sachchindra Narayan dismissed demands for Vananchal as nothing more than a "political luxury". He argues that currently there are as many as 16 ethnic movements in the country and the creation of one state would lead to similar demands and subsequent street politics elsewhere. However, Mahendra Singh, the CPI (ML) deputy leader in the Assembly, says, "RJD's opposition to Vananchal was neither based on facts nor principle." The fact, he said, was that Bihar as a whole hardly got much revenue from the southern region.

Laloo's volte face on Vananchal and the support he has garnered from other parties have shaken the BJP, both in the state and at the Centre. The state BJP realises that by arousing public emotion on the issue of a united Bihar, Laloo could emerge as a "hero" just as he rode the crest of popularity in 1990 by converting the issue of Mandal recommendation on reservation into a "social justice" campaign and projecting himself as the messiah of the MYD (Muslim-Yadav-Dalit) combine. The role he is seeking now is that of "saviour" of Bihar.

Laloo's political machinations apart, there is some truth in the apprehensions that the bifurcation of the state would cripple Bihar economically. Northern and central Bihar are as different from the south as chalk and cheese. The south's Chhotanagpur plateau is rich in minerals and boasts of several industries; the northern and central regions have some moribund sugar and jute mills and are completely dependent on agriculture. The southern plateau accounts for about 63 per cent of the state's revenue from mineral resources and 27.27 per cent of all the minerals produced in the country. Take away Jharkhand and the state's share would be a meagre 0.47 per cent. It is this fear of the people of Bihar that Laloo is capitalising on.

With his double-edged sword, Laloo has cut the political parties in the state in half. The Congress was the first casualty of the north-south divide when sharp differences surfaced in the state unit over the issue of support to the Vananchal Bill. At an acrimonious Congress Legislature Party meeting last month a majority of the MLAs from north and central Bihar were not willing to toe the CWC resolution endorsing the Vananchal Bill.

Even RJD is facing a revolt from the leaders of south Bihar. Former minister and senior RJD leader Karamchand Bhagat has resigned the post of vice-president and one of the ministers Akalu Ram Mahato too has not only threatened to quit the ministry, but also called a meeting of all pro-Vananchal legislators and MPs at Bokaro on October 2 to demonstrate their unity.

Laloo is obviously counting on the fact that there are only 27 per cent tribals in the proposed Vananchal region. His game plan includes pitting tribals against non-tribals and turning the tide of public opinion against the BJP for supporting Vananchal. Laloo himself is confident that his new plank would demolish the BJP-Samata Party combine in the event of elections. "People of Bihar will never forget those who tried to dismember it," he says.

But as BJP General Secretary Saryu Rai says, "The Centre has enough constitutional power to bifurcate any state and there is no hurdle in the creation of Vananchal now. The recent assembly drama is also meaningless." However with the state Assembly having already rejected it, the Vananchal Bill could well end up as yet another casualty of politicking, just as several other well-intentioned bills have been in the past.

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