April 13, 1998

Naidu's image suffers as Muslim partymen resent pro-BJP stance.

By K M Thomas

For Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu, it came as a shocking surprise on Ugadi -- the Telugu New Year Day. A few hours after astrologers had predicted a year of plenty and prosperity for the state, Heavy Industry Minister Bashiruddin Babu Khan quit his post. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) minister was upset with Naidu for having backed the BJP during the vote on the confidence motion in the Lok Sabha. "By aligning with the BJP, the TDP's commitment to secularism and social justice is under a cloud," says Khan, who will continue as a TDP MLA. "Under no circumstances can the TDP afford to abandon causes which were singularly responsible for its strength and success."

Naidu, however, had strong political compulsions to do so. Assembly elections are due next year and by itself, the TDP faces an uphill task against a newly resurgent Congress in the state. Electoral arithmetic after the Lok Sabha polls suggests that the party is unlikely to gain significantly unless Naidu initiates measures to salvage his and the party's image in the run-up to the assembly elections. On its own, the TDP led in 90 assembly segments; in the company of the BJP, however, the party can claim 268 of the 294 assembly segments. Naidu, therefore, has to consider an understanding with the BJP and perhaps advance the polls as a quid pro quo for the support to the BJP Government in Delhi.

"His compulsion is not our helplessness," argues Khan. "The Muslims are hurt particularly after he agreed to maintain equidistance between the BJP and the Congress." The resignation of some Muslim TDP leaders, including former MP Khaleel ur Rehman, is also likely to affect the party's prospects among the minorities. The Muslims constitute only 12 per cent of the electorate and do not vote en bloc. Yet, the TDP is apprehensive about losing their support in Telengana from where it won half its 12 seats in the Lok Sabha. With the CPI and CPI(M) also distancing themselves from Naidu, it could be tough going for the TDP.

"I extended support after satisfying myself that Ramakrishna Hegde and George Fernandes were doing so," explains Naidu. The chief minister says that the state has increased the allocation for minority welfare from Rs 3 crore to Rs 28 crore in recent years and has given Urdu the status of second language. Besides, plans are afoot to start an Urdu university. However, all these sops may not produce results as the Muslim clergy, which had appealed to its congregations to vote for the TDP before the parliamentary elections, is clearly peeved with Naidu.

Ironically, Naidu's image would not have taken such a beating had he initially justified his decision to back the BJP. The media savvy chief minister preferred to keep his cards close to his chest, then got his man G.M.C. Balayogi elected Lok Sabha Speaker and finally declared support for the BJP. Naidu's strategy has always been to let the media speculate before taking any major decision, like on scrapping prohibition. Now, it has backfired twice.

With the party rank and file beginning to doubt Naidu's leadership qualities, the best way out for the TDP chief is to negotiate an alliance with the BJP and go in for an early assembly election. However, he does not have the charisma or the large support base of a Jayalalitha to bargain from a position of strength. The BJP is bound to demand its pound of flesh as it came first in 32 assembly segments and a close second in another 107.

The real test for Naidu will come in the next few months when seat adjustments are made for elections to several municipal corporations, including Hyderabad. In all probability, the BJP will go it alone as in the Lok Sabha elections it finished first in five assembly segments and second in another seven that toegether constitute the state capital. For Naidu, that could become a no-win situation as he is likely to fare poorly on his own.

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