July 13, 1998

The uncertainty over the Government's survival is seen in a strange realignment of forces: while allies fall apart, traditional foes shake hands.

By Swapan Dasgupta

It is not very often that "Puratchi Thalaivi" J. Jayalalitha speaks her mind. In a rare, candid moment she bared her heart to a Mumbai magazine 13 years ago. "The only way to get anything from me," she wrote in an article, I believe, "is to cajole me, pamper me, talk to me softly."

From the day a beaming L.K. Advani announced his party's electoral alliance with the AIADMK in December last year, the BJP has been too aware of the lady's frailties. It has taken exceptional care to cajole her, pamper her and even genuflect before her. Nothing has really worked, not even the regal charm of the prime minister's special envoy Jaswant Singh. As the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government prepares for the second half of the crucial budget session of Parliament, there is a subdued realisation that one troubled chapter of the BJP-led coalition's history is drawing to a close. Barring the unexpected, Jayalalitha looks set to part ways with the Government. The relationship has soured to such an extent and the war of words has reached such ridiculous heights that no patch-up seems possible. An "indisposed" Jayalalitha has refused to communicate with the BJP leaders and their emissaries. She opted out of the June 27 Coordination Committee meeting and instructed her MPs to stay away from the coalition's parliamentary group meeting last Thursday.

On its part, the Government conveys the impression of being unfazed. A firm believer in quiet diplomacy, verging on management by inaction, the prime minister was deeply unhappy at the way the crisis was aggravated in the week he was holidaying in Manali. Home Minister Advani's statement, "There is no question of abusing any constitutional provision merely for the sake of survival", was interpreted by Jayalalitha as evidence of a growing BJP-RSS nexus with the DMK. Jayalalitha's alter ego Subramanian Swamy accused Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi of "promoting the RSS in a big way in Tamil Nadu". Vajpayee tried to minimise the strains by saying at the Coordination Committee meeting that "Article 356 does exist in the Constitution. It is not redundant ..." Following Industry Minister Sikandar Bakht's outburst, the prime minister also instructed the BJP leadership to desist from giving vent to their frustrations against Jayalalitha. Yet, after her dogged refusal to communicate with him or Singh, even Vajpayee has thrown up his hands in exasperation. "We are prepared for anything," says the prime minister's former political adviser Pramod Mahajan. This is echoed by the BJP's allies.

Preparations for life after Jayalalitha have been on for some time. Since it is clear that the AIADMK and its allies hold the key to the Government's survival, Vajpayee has made every effort to persuade the smaller parties in Tamil Nadu that it is counter-productive to wreck the present arrangement. MDMK leader "Vaiko" Gopalasamy, who has his eye on a post-Jayalalitha realignment in the state, was the first to step out of Amma's embrace by disagreeing with her demand for President's rule. "We secured votes for a stable government. So it is not proper that such a government suffers from repeated pinpricks," he said. The MDMK has, for all practical purposes, been excluded from the Jayalalitha camp.

Petroleum Minister V. K. Ramamurthy of the TRC also spoke his mind about not withdrawing support and incurred Jayalalitha's displeasure. "He got away because he belongs to his own party. Had he been in the AIADMK, his political career would have ended," said a Jayalalitha loyalist. The prime minister also spoke last week to S. Ramdoss, but the PMK leader has so far refused to budge from Jayalalitha's side. If Vajpayee's efforts yield full results, Jayalalitha may well find that her original group of 27 has shrunk by eight. If the Government can sit it out till end-August when a division bench of the Madras High Court is slated to give its judgement on the validity of the Special Courts to try Jayalalitha -- hearing is scheduled to conclude on July 29 -- it may even find new friends from within the AIADMK. "She may not be able to keep her own flock intact if she carries on a protracted war against the Centre," says K. Mohandas, a former police chief under M.G. Ramachandran.

Of course, this limited defection cannot automatically ensure the survival of the Government. If the 18-member AIADMK combines with the existing 262-member Opposition, the Vajpayee Government can easily be outvoted since it can (assuming the support of MDMK, PMK and TRC) at best muster a total of 263. However, such a scenario is prefaced by a big "if". Says Mahajan: "The fractured mandate of this Lok Sabha is such that no government can be stable. Exhaust this option and even the Congress option is inherently unstable. The political class knows that and will act accordingly." Shorn of the rhetoric, Mahajan's optimism is based on the belief that the entire Opposition will not unite to dethrone Vajpayee for the second time.

The apparent tina (there is no alternative) factor is at the core of the Government's strategy. If Jayalalitha makes Vajpayee's refusal to dismiss the Karunanidhi Government the basis for her withdrawal of support, it will put the Opposition in a quandary. The Congress may seem to have no qualms because it more or less recommended such a course last year after the interim report of the Jain Commission. Neither will the Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav who has demanded President's rule in BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh. "No price is big enough to dethrone the BJP," he said. Nor will his ally in the newly-formed National Democratic Front (NDF) Laloo Prasad Yadav whose Government in Bihar, ironically, is under a similar threat from the BJP-Samata Party combine. Like Mulayam, Laloo is guided by anti-BJPism. "Karunanidhi is singing praises of Vajpayee. Why should I object to his dismissal?" he said. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader has sought an appointment with Jayalalitha, perhaps with a view to roping her into the NDF. Likewise, the CPI(M), otherwise a staunch defender of the rights of states, may not object too much because it sees the removal of the BJP as its first priority.

However, for those to whom anti-BJPism is not the guiding principle, Jayalalitha's insistence on using the Constitution for partisan ends poses a dilemma. The DMK will, naturally, not sign its own death warrant. If it comes to the crunch, Karunanidhi could well instruct his six MPs to extend "issue-based" support to Vajpayee, as Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has done. Even Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) leader G.K. Moopanar, who is otherwise keen to follow the lead of the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress, may succumb to local compulsions. Fuming against Jayalalitha's claim that the alliance with the BJP was formalised on the strength of a commitment to dismiss the DMK Government, he said, "This statement will go against the aiadmk politically." Also to come to the BJP's support is former prime minister I.K. Gujral who is being used by Vajpayee as an unofficial special envoy overseas. Even the ailing V.P. Singh was surprisingly supportive of the BJP-led coalition in an interview to BBC from London.

In the numbers game, the dissenting voices in the Opposition may not amount to much. However, their support for the Government's refusal to buckle under Jayalalitha's threat gives Vajpayee an invaluable moral legitimacy. If the Ayodhya issue was in the eye of the storm, the prime minister would have found it difficult to win the support of anyone other than the hard-core RSS loyalists. But on the issue of Article 356 and the associated matter of pending corruption cases against Jayalalitha, it is the Government that can afford to sit on a moral high ground.

The AIADMK, in fact, didn't help its own case by complaining that its ministers weren't being allowed to appoint their own personal staff. The reference was to a pending request by Personnel Minister R. Janardhanan to appoint as his private secretary K.S. Pandian, an IAS officer who is a co-accused with Jayalalitha in the tansi land deal case. Jayalalitha is also angry at the inability of Janardhanan to remove income-tax department lawyer K. Ramaswamy who is conducting the cases against her. Earlier she secured R.K. Kumar's resignation as minister of state for finance because he was perceived to be too guided by the revenue secretary.

No wonder a section of the BJP feels Vajpayee should go for a pre-emptive strike against the AIADMK by dropping two of its ministers and then inviting another confidence vote. The prime minister is, however, against pushing Jayalalitha to the brink. He believes she will pull back once it dawns on her that there is no better deal on offer.

If Vajpayee is disinclined to gamble, it is partly on account of his temperament and partly on account of the shifting sands of opposition politics. In 1996, the constituents of the 13-party United Front (UF) could "demand" that the Congress extend unconditional support to them to keep out the "communal forces". H.D. Deve Gowda, Gujral and a general election later, there is realisation that keeping the Congress out of an anti-BJP arrangement makes no sense. In today's context, when the UF is itself truncated and fragmented, the "secular" pendulum has swung back to the Congress. It has become the focus of moves against the Vajpayee Government. Former prime minister Chandra Shekhar was first off the block asking the Congress to lead the way. He was followed by Deve Gowda who, in a bid to deflect attention from Mulayam and Laloo's alliance, declared that only the Congress could lead an alternative government. Finally, following a visit from former finance minister Manmohan Singh, the venerable West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu jumped into the ring. He horrified the purists in the CPI(M) by offering "issue-based" support to a Congress government.

Ideally, the Congress should have rushed into action at this turn of events, as the Janata Party's Swamy hoped it would. Bolstered by media hype about the Vajpayee Government's imminent fall and deepening concern over the economic downturn, a climate was created for a Congress-led government to assume office following Jayalalitha's withdrawal of support. On June 27 in Sangareddy, Andhra Pradesh, Sonia added to the momentum by saying that "If the BJP Government falls due to its own conflicts, we will not shirk the responsibility to form the government." It took nearly a week of intense speculation in Delhi for the excitement to subside. Speaking with characteristic candour in Calcutta last Thursday, former Speaker and Congress Working Committee (CWC) member P.A. Sangma deflated the gung-ho mood. "We want this Government to continue," he said. "We have a little bit of selfish motive as we need two years to revitalise and rejuvenate our party." Adds CWC member Pranab Mukherjee: "Even if the aiadmk withdraws support, the Government doesn't go ... There has to be an alternative in place."

The Congress' unpreparedness is not merely on account of Sonia not having completed her lessons in politics. First, the party feels that the Government, and Vajpayee in particular, still commands popular support. Ousting it at this juncture and replacing it with an equally fragile coalition would allow the BJP to regain the advantage. Consequently, it may not put insurmountable roadblocks in the path of the Finance Bill. It is also unlikely to hold out rash promises to a beleaguered Jayalalitha, but will not cold-shoulder her altogether. "Being out of power, the Congress doesn't possess official reports to arrive at a conclusion that Article 356 should be used in Tamil Nadu," said Sonia. For the Congress, it pays to let Jayalalitha continue playing the BJP's Trojan horse.

Second, while heartened by pleas to take the lead in fighting the BJP, Sonia is waiting for the smaller players, particularly the Left, to acknowledge the Congress' suzerainty. Having been the main casualty of the post-1977 fragmentation, the Congress is keen to re-emerge as a stable pole. Such a calibrated approach angers anti-BJP crusaders like Mulayam. "What are they waiting for?" he asks. "Their dithering will allow the BJP time to buy people and establish itself for a full five years." But signs of impatience leaves Sonia unmoved. Ideally, the Congress would prefer the next election to be a direct fight between fronts led by the Congress and the BJP. It would like the present trends to crystallise before having a shy at government formation. The Congress wants to change the chemistry of politics to its advantage, just as the BJP did before this year's general election.

This is not to suggest that Sonia will again retreat into her shell and offer Vajpayee the promised "constructive cooperation". The continuing uncertainty over the Government's survival suits the Congress well. Apart from leaving the public exasperated and craving for stability -- it was such a phenomenon that crippled the Janata Government of 1977-79 and paved the way for Indira Gandhi's return -- uncertainty leads to virtual paralysis of governance. The recent Jayalalitha crisis, combined with the bungling over the budget, has led to the dissipation of the Pokhran euphoria. It has also raised questions about the BJP's competence. Another few knocks could see the BJP face the winter assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi on the backfoot. If the Congress does well, Sonia won't wait two years to strike back.

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