India Today Cover Story [Border Firing: Pakistani Policy: No Meeting Point]

The hopes for an improvement of relations between Islamabad and Delhi are fast fading.

With shells exploding along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir again and the last round of talks between the foreign secretaries ending in a deadlock, the hope for an improvement of relations between Islamabad and Delhi is fast waning. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who is often accused of being soft on India, now seems to have second thoughts about continuing the dialogue with his Indian counterpart I.K. Gujral.

Disappointed with his talks with Gujral in New York, Sharif reportedly declared at a Federal Cabinet meeting that he did not see any hope of a breakthrough in the relations with India. "We have to review our policy because of the Indian attitude," he is understood to have said. Sharif has accused Delhi of backtracking on its commitment to negotiate all outstanding issues, including Kashmir.

The heightened tension along the LoC has put Sharif under pressure from hardliners within his own ruling Pakistan Muslim League. Some of them like Ejaz-ul-Haq, senior vice-president and son of former Pakistan president General Zia-ul-Haq, have been clamouring for a reassessment of Pakistan's policy. Pakistani defence officials have blamed India for the flare-ups. According to a spokesman, it was the use of heavy artillery by Indian forces on civilians along the LoC in Kel, Skardu and Lipa that proved to be incendiary. Pakistani defence officials say the Indian action was in response to Kashmiri separatists stepping up their activities.

Most Pakistani officials and analysts believe that the latest clashes have been instigated by hardliners in the Indian Establishment. According to some reports, Sharif told his Cabinet that "Gujral does not have any significant say in the present political set up in India", and that "the Indian military establishment has been exerting pressure on Gujral not to move forward in the peace process". Almost all Pakistani commentators seem to agree that the Gujral Government is too weak to take any important decision. "India has a government which is in no position to take tough decisions," reads an editorial in Pakistan's largest circulated English daily The Dawn. "Have the hopes kindled by the India-Pakistan talks already turned sour?"

Such apprehensions have been reinforced by the failure of the talks between Sharif and Gujral in New York. Sharif reportedly told his Cabinet colleagues on return that "there is no point in meeting him (Gujral) again unless there is a meaningful discussion". The two leaders are expected to talk again this month during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Edinburgh and Sharif has called a Cabinet meeting next week to discuss Pakistan's policy. But most analysts here believe that Pakistan is in no hurry to break the deadlock.

KARGIL
Soft Target

For India, no other town along the 740 km Line of Control (LoC) is as vulnerable as Kargil. Located just 10 km as the crow flies from the LoC, it is in the middle of the 500 km National Highway No. 1 joining Srinagar with Leh. In summer, it is dotted with trucks and convoys ferrying supplies to keep Ladakh provisioned through the six months the road is closed because of snow.

Located in a valley between the Dras and Suru rivers, the town lies at an altitude of about 7,000 ft and is dominated by mountains on all sides. The Pakistani positions on the mountains across the Dras river have always been troublesome. Though India had captured them twice in 1965, it had to return them as per agreement. However, it managed to recapture the positions in 1971, and has retained them since. But while this removed the threat of small-arms fire on the town, posts in the more distant mountains still overlooked the town and it is from here that Pakistani artillery observers are directing their shelling of the town.

The fact that the people are Muslim, though of the Shia sect, should not be a surprise. Given the attacks on minority Shias by Sunnis in Pakistan, it is expected that the Shias feel safer in India. The Shia-dominated region has steadfastly refused to participate in the Pakistan-supported and inspired insurgency in the Valley. The attack is a punishment to Kargil. But the aim of the attack is really double-edged. It is also a threat to the Army supply routes to Ladakh and Siachen region. In case of an emergency, the Army has an option. All rations, equipment, ammunition and fuel pass through Kargil, but there is an alternate route through Himachal Pradesh.

October 13, 1997