Cover Story: In a Holy Mess

Sharif's playing the Islamic card is seen as a ploy to stave off his Government's collapse as the economic crisis deepens and sectarian violence escalates. Worries grow in India about the likely fallout.

When Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif swept to power 18 months ago after winning an overwhelming mandate in the general elections, he told his countrymen: "We must go down on our knees and bow before Allah." They all believed it was only meant to be a gesture of thanksgiving. So no one was really prepared for what Sharif did last week when he found himself practically on his knees politically. He declared that henceforth the Shariat or the social system of Islam, whose central tenets are the Quran and the Sunnah (practices of the Prophet), would be the supreme law of the land. In the National Assembly, where he proposed a bill to amend the Constitution, he declared somewhat poetically: "The nuclear tests changed the colour of the Chagai mountains and the Shariat Bill will change the colour of society." Few expected Sharif to change his colours so dramatically in the face of the country's deepening financial and political crisis after the nuclear tests in May. He was a prot g of the late General Zia-ul-Haq, who ruled as a dictator when he was the President and had even made similar moves to make Islamic law supreme in 1985. But Sharif still had the image of being a moderate politician, a leader who rode to power on a landslide electoral victory fought on bread and butter issues. So naturally his playing the Islamic card is seen as a desperate gamble to save his Government from collapse. Already the move has isolated him politically with all his coalition partners, including the Muttahid Qaumi Movement and the National Awami Party, pulling out in protest.

With the ruling Pakistan Muslim League occupying 137 seats in the 217-strong Assembly, just six short of a two-thirds majority, Sharif's Government faces no immediate threat to its stability. But there is growing concern within his country and internationally about what Sharif is really up to. For the Constitution already proclaims that Pakistan is an Islamic state and has vested the country's sovereignty with Allah. Sharif's opponents believe he is pushing Pakistan into a dangerous form of religious dictatorship and is likely to declare himself Amir-ul-Momineen (leader of Muslims). It is a development that worries India with Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee brushing aside diplomatic caution by stating that it was "a retrograde step" and adding, "the growth of religious extremism in any country is a matter of concern to us".

So why did Sharif get himself into such a holy mess and what threat does a truly Islamic Pakistan pose to the region?

THE ZEALOTS

Jamaat-e-Islami: Founded by Abul Ala Maudoodi, says Pakistan is yet to become Islamic. Once an ally of Zia-ul-Haq and Sharif, it is now led by Qazi Hussain Ahmed and patronises Hizbul Mujahideen in J&K.

Jamiat Ahle-Hadis: Led by H.M. Yahya, it believes in practices based on the Quran, Sunnah and Hadis. Patronises Markaz-dawa -ul-Irshad, active in J&K.

Markazi Jamiat Ahle-Hadis: Headed by Senator Sajjad Mir, an ally of Sharif. Patronises Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen in J&K.

Tablighi Jamaat: The biggest Islamic group. Tablighis refuse to participate in politics but a faction opposes Sharif.

Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam: Led by M F Rehman, Bhutto's ally. Backs jehad radicals.

If the enforcement of Islam had been the sole purpose behind the move, there was little need for Sharif to propose the 15th amendment to the Constitution, which already recognises Islam as the state religion of Pakistan. The supremacy of Allah -- which Sharif is now pushing for -- was enshrined in the first Constitution, drafted in 1956 when the country was formally given the title of the "Islamic Republic of Pakistan". Under the Constitution, the Government is already vested with powers to ensure that Muslims live in accordance with the fundamental principles of Islam. More important, it provides for a federal Shariat court to determine whether any existing law is repug-nant to Islam.

That is why many constitutional experts believe that Sharif's game plan is to render the Constitution and the Parliament totally irrelevant so that he can rule supreme. The bill empowers the federal government to issue directives and make laws for the implementation of the Islamisation process. It bestows sweeping powers on the government to take necessary action against any state functionary for non-compliance with its directives. "The most disturbing aspect of the bill is that it neither protects the federal character of our polity nor guarantees the fundamental rights which the Constitution enshrines," says Khalid Jawed Khan, a leading constitutional lawyer. "There is nothing in the bill which prevents the Government from concluding that the electoral system, the Parliament, the existence of provinces, the judiciary and political parties in their present form are un-Islamic and, therefore, should be replaced with a nominated Shoora (consultative body) of pious Muslims."

What appears to have pushed Sharif along this dangerous path was the fact that his country was on the brink of bankruptcy. Sectarian strife, especially in Sindh, was again getting out of control. Also Sharif, his aides say, felt his Government was sinking after the recent US strikes on Afghanistan and Sudan, when he was caught between trying to appease both the Taliban and the US. At home, pressure on the Government increased after the right-wing parties organised street demonstrations against the strikes. Added to this was the siege mentality that seemed to grip Sharif after army Chief General Jehangir Karamat embarrassed him with his clarifications on the US missile strikes. While Sharif maintained he had no prior notice of the strikes, Karamat issued what amounted to a public contradiction, saying the Americans had informed him and he, in turn, had informed the Government.

The advice then given to the beleaguered Sharif was to do what he finally announced in the National Assembly on August 28: the Islamic card. Says an aide: "His father Mian Mohammed Sharif and President Rafiq Tarar, who are increasingly playing the role of advisers, convinced him that this was the only way out." It aimed partly at co-opting the support of the radical Islamic clergy, whose clout had been growing especially after the Pakistan-supported Taliban took charge in Afghanistan, and the recent US missile attacks on Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden's hide-outs.

While Sharif hopes to curry favour with such Islamic countries as Saudi Arabia, he believes his stridency on Islam helps him increase his bargaining power with the US. An Islamic combination of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and a few other Central Asian republics can be a formidable strategic force in the region. Something the US and China cannot afford to ignore and may force them into bailing out Pakistan from its economic mess quicker than it wants.

Sharif's calculations, however, have already gone awry. Almost all the major political parties, from the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami to the main opposition Pakistan People's Party, have rejected the bill as a gimmick and suspect it is a plan to establish autocracy in the country. With 20 per cent of Pakistan's population belonging to the Shia sect, they are unlikely to follow the diktat of what the Sunni majority believes an Islamic society should be. Even among the Sunnis, there are differences over interpretations on Islamic tenets (see guest column).

With his coalition partners pulling out, Sharif may find it difficult to push the bill through Parliament. Although his party with the help of independents can muster a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, it does not enjoy similar support in the Senate. It has 44 members in the Senate out of a total 87 and needs 15 more to get the bill passed. The Government has also hinted at holding a referendum if it fails to get the bill passed by Parliament. But in the present situation, Sharif may not get public support for the controversial bill because, unlike Zia's time, most people are increasingly committed to Pakistan remaining a democracy.

Most analysts believe that the move may boomerang on Sharif and worsen the Government's political isolation. "While the extremist religious parties which are up in arms against the administration will not be placated by his Islamic rhetoric, the move will further alienate the liberal section of society. He will end up with the worst of both worlds," predicts Maleeha Lodhi, former ambassador to the US and editor of The News. As things crumble, Sharif has even begun muzzling the press.

What may seal the fate of Sharif's Government is the imminent financial breakdown. In a desperate attempt to restore the dwindling credibility of his administration, Sharif directly took charge of the Finance Ministry. But it would be an uphill task for him to stem the rot. After the May 28 nuclear tests, the Government froze close to $11 billion in foreign currency accounts in an attempt to avert a run on the banks. But the measure failed to stop the massive flight of capital through informal channels and also dissuaded potential foreign investors. Exchange reserves plummeted below the critical level of $500 million, forcing the Government to temporarily stop repayment of its commercial and institutional debts from the last week of July. Pakistan is now desperately seeking a bail-out package from the International Monetary Fund.

The package, if it comes through, may only help Pakistan keep afloat for a few more months. While it urgently needs money to prevent a complete economic meltdown, it does not have the institutional capacity to implement a reforms programme which comes with the loans. It is also beyond its capacity to manage the consequences of the debt crisis, some of which have already become visible. Share prices have nosedived since May with the Karachi Stock Exchange dropping close to 750 points from its high of 1,500 before the nuclear tests. The value of the Pakistani rupee has plummeted to Rs 60 to a dollar as compared to Rs 44 in May. The recent 25 per cent increase in petroleum prices, the hike in electricity and gas tariffs have already had a significant impact. Some reports suggest that the prices of essential commodities have marked an increase of at least 20 per cent. There is already growing social discontent with a series of strikes by traders and transporters. A massive cut in development expenditure has further deepened the recession, swelling the ranks of the unemployed. Some analysts predict an Indonesia-like situation developing as a consequence of the financial breakdown.

Sharif and his economic managers appear unable to pull themselves out of the mess. "The Government is leaderless, directionless and struck by a policy paralysis," maintains one analyst. There are also signs of frustration in the Government's ranks. Cabinet ministers are openly critical of Sharif's mishandling of the economy. Many political leaders, including Leader of the Opposition Benazir Bhutto, have called for Sharif's ouster and the formation of an army-backed national consensus government. Bhutto told india today: "Both Sharif and I should step aside and allow a consensus figure to head a national government comprising politicians, technocrats and the army brass."

Pakistan's problems are a now cause of concern in capitals across the world, from Beijing to Washington DC. These range from fears that the state will collapse, spawning anarchy, giving free rein to a number of hate-groups whose agenda is to export violence in the name of religion. "The collapse of Pakistan," says Air-Commodore (retd) Jasjit Singh, director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, "will present unprecedented challenges to India, Iran, China and countries of Central Asia."

But the country that is most concerned is Pakistan's best friend, China. Having invested an enormous amount of money and faith in Islamabad, Beijing is unlikely to easily accept the prospect of Pakistan falling apart. According to analysts, it should come as no surprise if China provides Pakistan with a partial economic bail-out, especially with its massive foreign exchange hoard. But the Chinese concerns go beyond the issue of political and economic investments. It is worried about the spread of Muslim fundamentalism in its strategic Xinjiang region. The Chinese fear that pan-Islamist radicals in Pakistan are using trade links to spread their ideas. Most analysts believe that Beijing will not hesitate to use the iron hand to crush religious discontent.

The US was perhaps one of the first countries to notice signs of the Pakistani implosion. In January 1997, the influential Council on Foreign Relations in its report on South Asia went so far as to describe Pakistan as a "failed state". Former ambassador to India William P. Clark Jr does not quite agree though he admits the situation is "very worrisome". So much so, he points out that the Clinton Administration has been forced to dilute its post-nuclear tests sanctions, as he says wryly, "to the benefit of India".

Neither China nor the US is about to wash its hands off Pakistan. The country's strategic location makes it too important to ignore it. But events in Pakistan have the biggest fallout on India. Pakistani fanatical groups like the Markaz dawa-ul-Irshad, the Harkat-ul-Ansar and the Jamaat-e-Islami make no bones about their hatred for India or their involvement in supporting a jehad against India. "If their appeal expands," says a South Block official, "this could spell more trouble for us."

The post-nuclear test period only compounds the concerns. "The idea of nuclear weapons in the hands of some of these fanatics is absolutely spine-chilling," he adds. Despite the seeming differences, there is a startling commonality of concerns among Pakistan's foreign interlocutors, friends and adversaries. None, least of all India, is interested in Pakistan coming apart. But few are able to see what the future holds if Pakistan is unable to pull itself out of its mess. They can only say the implications are "extremely worrying".