Editorials

India Today, February 15, 1999
Feb 15, 1999

Catching The Bus

Recognising that the ride to Pakistan doesn't need an American navigator.

Catching the Bus At first sight, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's proposed trip to Pakistan on the inaugural run of the Delhi-Lahore bus service may appear to be an extension of the "feel good" period of Indo-Pakistani relations characterised by the current cricket Test series. But to see it this way would be a grave error. In diplomacy, as in cricket, deftness and timing are everything. The applause that Vajpayee's announcement has evoked both in India and Pakistan, if not the world, speaks for itself, as does the sudden change in the tenor of statements and declarations from both sides. As Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has indicated, Pakistan is willing to discuss everything, including the compellingly urgent nuclear issue, bilaterally. Effectively choreographed, Vajpayee and Sharif's pas de deux could have portentous consequences for the tangled relationship between the two countries. The Lahore trip may appear to be a logical and simple gesture, but Vajpayee deserves credit for taking up Sharif's offer with such promptness. Just how difficult the decision may have been can be gauged from the fact that no Indian prime minister has visited Pakistan since 1989.

While the goodwill that will come from a Vajpayee trip and a return Sharif visit to Delhi is a useful end in itself, the main gain will be in breathing life into the moribund official-level dialogue between the two countries. Last October, after much hand-wringing, India and Pakistan resumed their official-level talks on Kashmir and peace and security issues in Islamabad and followed them up with six rounds on other festering subjects. The process was, however, confined to restating positions that the two sides had taken in the past. Next week, Indian and Pakistani officials are slated to resume the process. Till Vajpayee's dramatic gesture, the chances of the talks gaining momentum were fairly slim. With the two heads of government deciding to take assertive action, the situation has changed.

What stands out starkly, however, is the swiftness with which the climate of Indo-Pakistan relations changes. Through most of last year, Pakistani artillery shelled Indian positions on the Line of Control in a bid to escalate tensions. In fact, at times, traffic to Leh on National Highway 1A was forced to move at night as though in war time. Simultaneously, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence stepped up its efforts to revive the flagging militancy in Kashmir by pumping in more mercenaries and guns.

Despite the current tone of sweet reasonableness, the range of Pakistan's India policy remains narrow, veering from hostility to suspicion and the psychotic demand for Kashmir. On the other hand, since the V.P. Singh government of 1989-90, India's policy has been informed by the belief that a stable, secure and prosperous Pakistan is vital for this country. That perhaps explains why Vajpayee's gesture has found ready support in India, as indeed did his hard-line against those who wanted to disrupt the ongoing cricket matches. It is also the reason why Delhi has focused on trying to persuade Pakistan to lower barriers on trade and people-to-people contact. Despite a mountain of evidence of Pakistani complicity in acts of terrorism across the country, India has tried to keep alive a pretence that all is well with the neighbour.

Given the history, the India-Pakistan agenda is a vast one. Top of the list is the need to settle outstanding disputes, including Kashmir. Anyone with an iota of knowledge of history knows that Kashmir is not the cause of the India-Pakistan quarrel, but an occasion for it. In this context, India's call for a process that starts with resolving less ticklish issues like Sir Creek and Siachen, building confidence of the two countries to tackle other problems and then moving on to the toughest one, Kashmir, makes eminent sense.

Yet both sides must recognise that after the Pokhran and Chagai tests, the nuclear issue has assumed primacy. Islamabad's frenetic behaviour in the days leading up to the Chagai test is a pointer to the need for both sides to adopt a defence posture that is not on a hair-trigger. Movement in this area is important if both countries want the world to resume normal relations with them. In the October talks, India offered a range of confidence-building measures that were spurned by Islamabad, which somewhat unrealistically sought a "strategic restraint regime" -- a concept designed to give Pakistan parity with India, even though it is roughly a quarter of India's size. Now with Washington seemingly reconciled to Delhi's aim of creating a credible but minimum nuclear deterrent, Sharif has changed his tune. One swallow, it has been said, does not a summer make, but in the tension-ridden relations between the two nuclear-armed subcontinental neighbours, the smallest of friendly gestures is welcome.

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