Columns: Race Course Road

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India Today, March 15, 1999
March 15, 1999

RACE COURSE ROAD
Crisis as Opportunity

Vajpayee turns adversities into strengths

By Prabhu Chawla

The Chinese phrase for crisis incorporates the characters of both "danger" and "opportunity". Worldwide, leaders appreciate this duality. So does Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee it seems. After faltering and floundering for over 11 months, the prime minister is slowly learning the tricks of the political trade. For the past few weeks, Vajpayee has converted almost every crisis into an opportunity to stabilise himself. He survived the Bihar bedlam without any bruises. Vajpayee converted the Lok Sabha debate on Bihar into a motion of confidence in his Government. And won it by a decisive 29 votes -- 15 votes more than what he polled in March 1998.

For the prime minister, as also for the crisis-ridden coalition, this was the surprise outcome of a hopeless situation. Barely 48 hours before the voting in the Lok Sabha, Vajpayee and his kitchen cabinet were reconciled to a sure defeat. Vajpayee had even decided to resign on moral grounds. Burdened with an ineffective party leadership and inexperienced cabinet colleagues he, however, decided to fight back. Not only did he speak to all the allies personally, but he also assured them that as usual he would protect their interests at the Centre. In the end, he was so confident of his victory that he even dropped the idea of intervening in the debate. It was Vajpayee himself who led from the front. For him, Bihar was the catalyst to turn proactive. For almost nine months, he had been in search of an opportunity to re-establish the constitutional legitimacy of his Government. Though none of his allies -- barring habitual party-hopper Om Prakash Chautala -- had withdrawn support, his detractors always questioned the longevity and legitimacy of the BJP-led Government.

The prime minister scored a double whammy when, to his opponents' disappointment, he pulled off another coup in the form of a market-friendly budget. With the economy plagued by demand contraction, the Congress was expecting a second disastrous budget to hasten the process of pulling down the Government. But Vajpayee took the wind out of its sails by packaging the budget in almost the same way as a Congress-led government would have. On top of this, both Vajpayee and Yashwant Sinha marketed the budget so effectively that glaring contradictions were drowned. Vajpayee personally chose the persons to speak for the Government both in the print and electronic media. While ineffective and incoherent politicians were virtually locked in their homes, formidable leaders like Jayalalitha, R.K. Hegde and Mamata Banerjee were persuaded to support the budget strongly.

It is evident that the prime minister has chosen to hijack the Congress agenda -- both on politics and the economy. In Britain, Prime Minister Tony Blair has successfully marginalised his Conservative opposition by adopting some of its economic programmes. Obviously, Vajpayee is being advised to extend the Westminster model to the art of governance. But then Vajpayee, unlike Blair, runs a greater risk of collapse. He has neither the majority behind him nor the team to sustain his recovery.

The prime minister's survival, therefore, does not depend on such short-term gains. As he displays confidence, the Opposition will be under greater compulsion to pull him down. And with success behind him, the real challenge begins now.

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