June 15, 1998

Mamata blames the BJP for her party's poor showing in the panchayat polls indicating the honeymoon's over.

By Udayan Namboodiri

Fresh from the stunning impact made by the Trinamool Congress-BJP combine in the last Lok Sabha elections, Mamata Banerjee was expected to take the alliance to greater heights. But now it seems Banerjee's estimate of Jyoti Basu's power was all wrong. As results of West Bengal's fifth election to the three-tier panchayat system held over the last weekend show, support for the CPI(M)-led Left Front may have frayed a bit at the edges but its grip on the state's countryside remains solid. The communist combine won 58 per cent of the gram panchayat seats, 67 per cent of the panchayat samiti and 88 per cent of the zilla parishad seats in an election seen as the biggest test of Basu's vote-catching ability since the Left Front first seized power in 1977.

The result: the "Red Fort", a metaphor for Marxist hegemony in rural Bengal, is intact. "It was a historic win. People give us their support because of our credibility," said the 84-year-old chief minister. Campaigning for the fourth month in a row and through two crucial elections, he came out triumphant in what many described as a war of nerves with Banerjee. The final message was very clear: despite all the media hype surrounding Banerjee, Trinamool remains a factor only in greater Calcutta. Rural Bengal is another world where the realities are quite different.

An analysis of the results highlights this divide. The greater the distance from Calcutta, the worse the Trinamool's fortunes seem to have been. In the districts neighbouring Calcutta, the party got between 28 and 30 per cent of the votes, while in the northern tip of the state -- Cooch Behar district -- the share was just 9.3 per cent. In Bardhaman, the CPI(M)'s biggest bastion, Trinamool's impact was all but negligible. At the southern end -- Purulia district -- it could muster no more than 12 per cent on an average at all levels. The only consolation that Banerjee can perhaps derive is from the fact that the support for the emerging anti-Left alternative, once limited to a 50 km radius around the state capital, has increased marginally.

In the run-up to the election, both the main challengers were riven by internal differences. In the Left Front, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) leaders openly feuded with the CPI(M). In the fields and hamlets of rural Bengal, interests overlap and state committee-induced unity often failed to translate into smooth vote-sharing. The chief minister was often seen going on the offensive against the RSP in elections speeches.

That the Trinamool and the BJP were drifting apart became clear when, alleging that 35 of her partymen were killed by Marxist cadres in poll-related violence, Banerjee demanded central intervention. Three days before election day, she called a statewide bandh to focus public attention on the ruling party's reign of "terror". The support for the bandh, however, did not translate into votes on poll day. By late night, as the first results indicated another communist sweep of rural Bengal, Trinamool's chief whip in the Lok Sabha, Ajit Panja, announced withdrawal of support for the Vajpayee Government. A day later, Banerjee modified it, saying her party would boycott the budget session of Parliament. Reason: Vajpayee had ignored her pleas for clamping President's rule on the state before the elections.

Delhi conceded to her demands to some extent. For the first time ever, three battalions of Central paramilitary forces were deployed in the state for elections to the local bodies. But the effect was token. Panchayat elections remained a state preserve. "We could have won a few more seats if the elections had been conducted fairly," says Ranjit Panja, Trinamool MP from Barasat. Violence was rampant, with reports of seven people killed. The writing on the wall was clear: it would be quite some time before the Trinamool could emerge as a viable alternative for the rural electorate.

Post-elections, a decisive new stage has dawned on West Bengal politics. There's a clear divide between the Trinamool and the BJP. "We fought the CPI(M) and BJP as equal enemies," admits an angry Banerjee. That countered the cosy vote-sharing each claimed before the elections. BJP state unit President Tapan Sikdar says that henceforth there would be no more seat adjustments. His party would go it alone in the next round of elections in three assembly constituencies on June 25. It has gone ahead and named the candidates. "We have had enough of Banerjee's arrogance," says Sikdar. The Trinamool chief, on her part, accuses the BJP of having "an understanding" with the CPI(M).

The sudden rift in the Trinamool's relations with the BJP will only benefit the ruling Marxists. Banerjee could have done a Jayalalitha on Vajpayee, before the results came out, when her stock was slightly higher. But with the drubbing of the Trinamool, Vajpayee is now in a position to dictate the terms of the relationship. Banerjee's failure to make a serious dent in the red citadel now places her in an unenviable position. In just three months, everything seems so different.

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