Elections '98 promises to be crucial for both the voter and the political parties. An analysis of its complexities.

It may be an election that no sitting MP in his heart of hearts really desired, but it could well turn out to be a poll that marks a turning point in Indian politics. Exasperated with the experience of having three prime ministers in 19 months and protracted bouts of non-governance, the 630 million voters of the world's largest democracy have a chance of either putting things straight or catapulting the country into an existential crisis from which it may not recover. In retrospect, the 1998 election may be a mere episode in India's development into a mature democracy, but it will be an occasion for the voter to exercise some real options:

• Is single party rule preferable to unstable coalitions?
• Can pre-poll coalitions provide greater stability than post-election arrangements of expediency?
• Is caste or religious identity more relevant than actual governance?
• Should a parliamentary election become, in effect, a presidential contest?
• Can the country afford prime ministers who lack mass bases and an all-India acceptance?
• Should professed ideology take precedence over the cohesiveness of the formations?

These are complex long-term questions with no easy and universally acceptable answers. But it was the inability of the electorate to address these issues in 1996 that led to the 11th Lok Sabha becoming one of the most short-lived in history. During the campaign, india today will raise these questions. In the first week after dissolution, however, the focus is on the obvious problems facing the BJP, Congress and United Front (UF) as they enter battle.

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