Will the BJP cross the 20 per cent mark?

Lurking behind the smile of the BJP leadership is an anxiety. The reason is not far to seek. Though its seats have gone up dramatically in the past decade, since 1991, its votes have remained stationary at 20 per cent. By 1996 it had reached the limits of the seats it could get on the basis of this vote share. In order to improve its seat tally, it must now cross the 20 per cent vote mark.

For this quantum jump, the BJP must tackle the two major barriers which block its advance: one regional and the other social. For all its efforts, the BJP is still nowhere in the race along the long coastal belt from Kerala to West Bengal. Further, for all its rhetoric on social engineering, 45 per cent of its voters in 1996 were upper caste Hindus.

In the past few years, the BJP has tried to overcome these limitations by promoting non-upper caste leaders and acquiring regional allies. Together, the allies and the BJP had captured a vote share of 24 per cent in 1996. This time, with a new ally in the Akali Dal, the BJP-led combine looks all set to cross the 25 per cent mark. How many additional seats can these strategies yield this time? Will the gains be sufficient to bring the BJP and its allies close to the magic figure of 240, necessary for the alliance to become a serious contender to form the government?

Can the next election yield a different verdict?
Can the Congress halt its decline?
Can JD survive the '98 mandate?
Will the turnout fall this time?

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