North-East: No sign of an Election

Militants force candidates to back out from the contest in Nagaland, while in Tripura the election will be fought under the shadow of the gun.

How is this for a free and fair election? In 34 of Nagaland's 60 assembly constituencies, the ruling Congress will go unopposed. What happens on polling day -- February 23 -- has become irrelevant and Chief Minister S.C. Jamir is already looking forward to another term at the helm.

What has led to this situation? In short it is a breakdown of governance in the insurgent infested north-eastern state. A governance that has been practically taken over by insurgent outfits.

On the eve of the polls, the "principal secretary" of the Government of People's Republic of Nagaland (GPRN), the underground "government" of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah faction), issued letters which asked candidates of all political parties in Nagaland to sign a proclamation "failing which they will be treated as anti-national". The format of the proclamation was as follows: "The Naga people through their various organisations strongly oppose holding of elections in Naga-inhabited areas. As such I.... candidate of .... party will not file my nomination paper in the ensuing Lok Sabha/state assembly elections in view of the ongoing political dialogue between the Government of India and the NSCN(I-M)." Failure to comply, the proclamation implied, would mean capital punishment.

For the Jamir Government, nothing could have been more advantageous. The Nagaland chief minister is widely believed to have the backing of the other major faction of the NSCN led by Khaplang. So, while no other major political party mustered the courage to file their papers, 47 Independents did so. Even here, there are allegations that some of them were put up by the Congress to make the election look less farcical. In the state's only parliamentary constituency, there's a ridiculous two-cornered fight: between a Congress and a "dummy" Congress candidates.

The Centre's intransigence on the issue of holding elections hasn't helped this absurd situation. Neither has the NSCN(I-M)'s vacillation on boycotting the polls -- after the ceasefire agreement with the Government of India was extended for another three months on January 25, the insurgent group decided to call off the boycott.

However, there are a number of influential Naga organisations, including the HoHo Summit and the Naga Mothers' Association, which have backed the nscn(i-m)'s decision that elections should be postponed till the conclusion of the peace talks. Even political parties like the BJP, the Naga People's Council and the National Democratic Movement have pleaded with the Centre to postpone the polls. Says Yesonu Veyie, a HoHo leader: "The mood in the state is definitely in favour of this position."

That feeling is reflected on the streets of Nagaland. Says Lal Thara, the state's chief election officer: "Signs of elections are there only in the Congress office in Kohima." The only cars bearing party flags are those of important leaders, and considering what happened to the chief minister himself, even this has to be done discreetly: on January 30, Jamir's convoy was stopped by a dozen armed NSCN(I-M) militants who objected to the Congress flags on the vehicles.

It isn't just politicians who are feeling the pressure. Sitting in his office, the deputy commissioner of Dimapur recently received a call from the NSCN(I-M) area commander insisting that he be told how many nominations had been filed and by whom. The underlying message was clear: those who had disobeyed the NSCN(I-M)'s diktat would face severe consequences.

But what are the possible consequences of this election in Nagaland? The answer is provided by Neingulo Krome, convenor of the Naga People's Movement for Democracy: "We will ignore the state government (when it is formed), we have never really recognised it. We are in the process of discussing a solution to the Naga problem with the Centre, and chances are that if the talks succeed, the government will be dismissed anyway."

By contrast, the elections in Tripura have a semblance of fairness. Even though the citizens of the state will go to the polls on February 16 under the shadow of the gun to elect two MPs and 60 MLAs, they will be able to exercise their choice. A healthy total of 261 candidates are in the fray, and significantly, in a state which has only gone to the Congress or to the left parties, the BJP will contest all 60 seats this time. Although the party is not expected to make a mark as far as seats are concerned, analysts believe that the votes cast in favour of the BJP will decide the winner.

Tripura's recent history has been bloody. It will be exactly a year on election day when the Army was called out after a spate of ethnic killings over three months that started in December 1996 and culminated in the killing of 60 Bengalis in February 1997. Nineteen of the state's 48 police stations were declared disturbed and the Armed Forces Special Powers Act was in force. The Army may have forced insurgent outfits to lie low, but that hasn't stopped political parties from trying to use the ethnic tension to their advantage.

The Congress has consistently demanded the imposition of President's rule because of the deteriorating law and order situation and the Left Front Government has accused the Congress of being hand in glove with militant outfits. Says Tripura Home Minister Samar Choudhary: "The politician-militant nexus has assumed dangerous proportions thanks to the Congress."

While differences among senior leaders like Sudhir Ranjan Majumdar and Santosh Mohan Dev (who plays an important role in Tripura Congress politics although he contests from Silchar, Assam) may prove costly for the Congress, the Left Front is in search of a leader. The ailing Chief Minister Dasrath Deb has been out of active politics for some time. And though the CPI(M) has projected Manik Sarkar as the chief ministerial candidate, the deterioration of law and order during the last year and a half might just force the people to show the Left the door.

MEGHALAYA
Only One Issue

One out of two people in Meghalaya is unemployed. With just one big industry and very few jobs, it's not surprising that unemployment is a key issue in every election in the state.

But it's also an issue most political parties in Meghalaya are wary of. The reason: the state's land tenure system, under which all land is owned by tribal clans, prevents industrial growth. Says Chief Minister S.C. Marak: "It is an impossible situation and unless we make an amendment to the Land Transfer Act, 1973, investment will not come in and jobs just won't be created."

However Marak, who has led a minority Congress Government through a five-year term, is unlikely to raise the issue at this stage, fearing a backlash. For, the Congress position in the coming assembly and parliamentary polls -- on February 16 -- is far from secure. Three major regional parties in the state have regrouped themselves to form the United Democratic Party (UDP). In the 1993 polls, though divided, these parties had managed to get 21 seats in the 60-member House. This time the combine could pose a real challenge to the Congress.

The two Lok Sabha constituencies in Meghalaya have produced clear winners so far. While Congress' P.A. Sangma is comfortably placed in Tura, UDP candidate G.G. Swell faces a tough contest in Shillong from Congress' P.R. Kyndiah, former Mizoram governor

And concerned with the BJP's forays into state politics, the Presbyterian Church of India, in an unprecedented move, has since issued guidelines, saying the voters should vote only for deserving candidates. With parties offering nothing new, the people may just follow the church advice.