In positioning the National Agenda as the great
healing touch, Vajpayee's own image will come in handy. Apart from the final week of the
campaign when he responded aggressively to Sonia Gandhi's increasingly shrill attacks on
the BJP, Vajpayee made swastha, shiksha and suraksha (health, education and security) the
theme of his appeal for votes. This constant preoccupation with what he called "the
quality of life" may not have made it to the headlines, but could yield returns in a
hung Parliament. Indeed, it could make the crucial difference between outright opposition
to a BJP-led government and covert support using the abstention route. The Telugu Desam
Party is understood to be exploring the second option.
Contrary to the belief of its opponents that the BJP alliance would get bogged down in
theological hair-splitting over the National Agenda, Vajpayee has ensured that contentious
issues are given a deliberate go-by. The idea is to form a government on the strength of a
bi-partisan programme. None of the three distinctive features of the BJP manifesto -- the
repeal of Article 370, the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya and the enactment of
the Uniform Civil Code -- find place in the National Agenda. Says former BJP president
Murli Manohar Joshi, a hardliner: "How can we implement our agenda when we don't have
the numbers? Though all these issues remain on our manifesto, they will not be the
programme of the coalition government." Samata Party President George Fernandes goes
a step further: "When we are trying to secure a simple majority, what is the point of
talking about the repeal of Article 370 which requires a two-thirds majority in both
Houses?"
Nor does the sub-text of the National Agenda harp on the hoary secularism-communalism
debate. Although Hindutva was a definite undercurrent in the BJP's campaign in Uttar
Pradesh and, to a lesser extent, in Tamil Nadu, it was overshadowed by more mundane
concerns like stability and incumbency. The BJP has sensed the growing returns from not
only appearing moderate but actually being so. Says a party leader: "The national
mood is against raising religious issues. We have come close to power because of a
Vajpayee wave, not a Ram wave." In Faizabad, the epicentre of the 1991 Ram wave,
BJP's sitting MP Vinay Katiyar suffered an embarrassing defeat. No wonder CPI(M) General
Secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet's desperate bid to forge a secular front with the
Congress appeared somewhat contrived. And Fernandes gets a laugh when he juxtaposes a
"normal" and a "secular" person.
This is not to suggest that the National Agenda will consist of platitudes only. Aware
of the inherent fragility of a Vajpayee government, the BJP is clear that another mid-term
election is inevitable, some two years later. The idea is to embark on a series of
well-packaged populist programmes that gives the government a distinct pro-poor and
pro-youth image. Almost all the coalition partners are agreed that Manmohan Singh and P.
Chidambaram's "heartless liberalisation" must be substituted with a reforms
package aimed at lessening internal controls and at the same time increasing state
intervention in infrastructure and social services. "The withdrawal of the state was
too abrupt," says former finance minister Jaswant Singh, who retains an important
role despite his own defeat in the election. Keynes will be draped in saffron. There is
only one problem: where will the money come from? The political costs of higher taxes or
deficit financing haven't been computed.
One facet of the BJP programme that will, however, not be abandoned is the emphasis on
swadeshi. In concrete terms it means that a Vajpayee government will go out of its way to
be partial to the interests of Indian-owned businesses. There is both a political and
economic dimension to this swadeshi thrust. It is Indian industry that has rooted most
strongly for a Vajpayee government, not least because of the BJP's known objections to
reckless globalisation. Conversely, there is a widespread perception in the BJP that the
multinationals and foreign fund managers were instrumental in painting an adverse picture
of the party in international circles. Fernandes may have shot off his mouth on television
by demanding an "exit policy" for Coke, Pepsi and Kellogs, but this was no
unguided missile. In terms of political positioning, a Vajpayee government will try to use
swadeshi to draw the battlelines between a united India -- unfettered by sectarian
divisions -- and videshi (foreign) interests. By implication, the definition of videshi
would stretch to Sonia who has publicly disavowed the BJP's swadeshi thrust. It is a line
of politics that has the potential of keeping the RSS and the socialists happy, making the
UF defensive and simultaneously unnerving the Congress. But there are problems. How will a
BJP government reconcile its India-first approach with the membership of the World Trade
Organisation? Moreover, if the foreign funds decide to retaliate, can business stomach the
disequilibrium? Finally, will swadeshi be used as a xenophobic decoy -- the economic
variant of Ram Janmabhoomi -- in case the government fails on other fronts?
Ultimately, as the BJP and its allies realise only too well, the electorate has
returned another uncertain verdict. It has rejected the UF, put the Congress and Sonia, on
hold and, at the same time, not given a categorical endorsement to the BJP. It has made
life troubling for Vajpayee, the man who was clearly the first choice as prime minister.
If he succeeds in forming a government, Vajpayee has two clear choices: to collapse under
the weight of the coalition's contradictions and face an electoral drubbing, or
audaciously seize the opportunity for the next round of battle. Either way, India has yet
to exhaust its share of fiercely competitive politics. Whether Vajpayee succeeds or fails,
the 12th Lok Sabha promises to be another interregnum. Hopefully, not too brief.