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March 16, 1998


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COVER STORY: CROWN OF THORNS
Continued...

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VOCAL ALLY: Mamata's shrill style could always pose a problem for the BJP

CONCENSUS

CONFLICT

Alliance was worked very well on the ground.
Need to fight the CPI(M) unitedly in West Bengal.
Both parties will initially target urban pockets in the state.
Mamata's need to retain minority base even as the BJP harps on illegal migrants.
Mamata's refusal to join the BJP government.
Her unpredictable ways.

In positioning the National Agenda as the great healing touch, Vajpayee's own image will come in handy. Apart from the final week of the campaign when he responded aggressively to Sonia Gandhi's increasingly shrill attacks on the BJP, Vajpayee made swastha, shiksha and suraksha (health, education and security) the theme of his appeal for votes. This constant preoccupation with what he called "the quality of life" may not have made it to the headlines, but could yield returns in a hung Parliament. Indeed, it could make the crucial difference between outright opposition to a BJP-led government and covert support using the abstention route. The Telugu Desam Party is understood to be exploring the second option.

Contrary to the belief of its opponents that the BJP alliance would get bogged down in theological hair-splitting over the National Agenda, Vajpayee has ensured that contentious issues are given a deliberate go-by. The idea is to form a government on the strength of a bi-partisan programme. None of the three distinctive features of the BJP manifesto -- the repeal of Article 370, the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya and the enactment of the Uniform Civil Code -- find place in the National Agenda. Says former BJP president Murli Manohar Joshi, a hardliner: "How can we implement our agenda when we don't have the numbers? Though all these issues remain on our manifesto, they will not be the programme of the coalition government." Samata Party President George Fernandes goes a step further: "When we are trying to secure a simple majority, what is the point of talking about the repeal of Article 370 which requires a two-thirds majority in both Houses?"

Nor does the sub-text of the National Agenda harp on the hoary secularism-communalism debate. Although Hindutva was a definite undercurrent in the BJP's campaign in Uttar Pradesh and, to a lesser extent, in Tamil Nadu, it was overshadowed by more mundane concerns like stability and incumbency. The BJP has sensed the growing returns from not only appearing moderate but actually being so. Says a party leader: "The national mood is against raising religious issues. We have come close to power because of a Vajpayee wave, not a Ram wave." In Faizabad, the epicentre of the 1991 Ram wave, BJP's sitting MP Vinay Katiyar suffered an embarrassing defeat. No wonder CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet's desperate bid to forge a secular front with the Congress appeared somewhat contrived. And Fernandes gets a laugh when he juxtaposes a "normal" and a "secular" person.

This is not to suggest that the National Agenda will consist of platitudes only. Aware of the inherent fragility of a Vajpayee government, the BJP is clear that another mid-term election is inevitable, some two years later. The idea is to embark on a series of well-packaged populist programmes that gives the government a distinct pro-poor and pro-youth image. Almost all the coalition partners are agreed that Manmohan Singh and P. Chidambaram's "heartless liberalisation" must be substituted with a reforms package aimed at lessening internal controls and at the same time increasing state intervention in infrastructure and social services. "The withdrawal of the state was too abrupt," says former finance minister Jaswant Singh, who retains an important role despite his own defeat in the election. Keynes will be draped in saffron. There is only one problem: where will the money come from? The political costs of higher taxes or deficit financing haven't been computed.

One facet of the BJP programme that will, however, not be abandoned is the emphasis on swadeshi. In concrete terms it means that a Vajpayee government will go out of its way to be partial to the interests of Indian-owned businesses. There is both a political and economic dimension to this swadeshi thrust. It is Indian industry that has rooted most strongly for a Vajpayee government, not least because of the BJP's known objections to reckless globalisation. Conversely, there is a widespread perception in the BJP that the multinationals and foreign fund managers were instrumental in painting an adverse picture of the party in international circles. Fernandes may have shot off his mouth on television by demanding an "exit policy" for Coke, Pepsi and Kellogs, but this was no unguided missile. In terms of political positioning, a Vajpayee government will try to use swadeshi to draw the battlelines between a united India -- unfettered by sectarian divisions -- and videshi (foreign) interests. By implication, the definition of videshi would stretch to Sonia who has publicly disavowed the BJP's swadeshi thrust. It is a line of politics that has the potential of keeping the RSS and the socialists happy, making the UF defensive and simultaneously unnerving the Congress. But there are problems. How will a BJP government reconcile its India-first approach with the membership of the World Trade Organisation? Moreover, if the foreign funds decide to retaliate, can business stomach the disequilibrium? Finally, will swadeshi be used as a xenophobic decoy -- the economic variant of Ram Janmabhoomi -- in case the government fails on other fronts?

Ultimately, as the BJP and its allies realise only too well, the electorate has returned another uncertain verdict. It has rejected the UF, put the Congress and Sonia, on hold and, at the same time, not given a categorical endorsement to the BJP. It has made life troubling for Vajpayee, the man who was clearly the first choice as prime minister. If he succeeds in forming a government, Vajpayee has two clear choices: to collapse under the weight of the coalition's contradictions and face an electoral drubbing, or audaciously seize the opportunity for the next round of battle. Either way, India has yet to exhaust its share of fiercely competitive politics. Whether Vajpayee succeeds or fails, the 12th Lok Sabha promises to be another interregnum. Hopefully, not too brief.

 

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