States: Sweet Revenge

The BJP bounces back in the state after giving the RJP and Congress a drubbing. But the intra-party equations will emerge only after Keshubhai forms his ministry.

When Keshubhai Patel was being sworn in as the new chief minister of Gujarat last Wednesday, there was a near-stampede within the precincts of the Raj Bhavan in Gandhinagar. Nearly 25,000 uninvited "guests" -- mostly ordinary supporters from far-flung corners of the state -- had turned up for the ceremony. If anything, the chaos witnessed there only went to prove that though out of power since mid-1996, when its government was brought down following an intra-party crisis triggered by Shankersinh Vaghela, the BJP's support base has remained almost intact.

While it swept aside the Congress challenge and made mincemeat of Vaghela's Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP), the new equations in the state Assembly spoke of the party's sweet revenge against its rivals: in the 182-member legislature, the BJP has 117 members against the Congress' 53 and the RJP's four. In the Lok Sabha elections too, the party's performance was equally impressive: it won 19 seats, leaving just seven to the Congress. Vaghela perhaps had some inkling of what was to come. As counting began, Vaghela, who had boasted of winning 100 seats,went into hibernation. It proved quite an exercise for TV crews to trace the man who was their darling till the other day. What called the RJP's bluff was the fact that Dilip Parikh became the first chief minister to lose while still in power. And that too to a political novice, Bharat Pandya -- a first-timer who was the state BJP office secretary till recently -- by a margin of 15,000 votes.

There were other shocks awaiting Vaghela. His lieutenant, energy minister Vipul Chaudhary, also lost despite the RJP chief camping in his constituency Kheralu on polling day. Two other important RJP ministers, Khumansinh Vansiya and Vinendrasinh Jhala, lost their deposits to BJP candidates. Barring two, all RJP ministers were defeated. When the elusive Vaghela was finally tracked down by newsmen, he sought to put the blame squarely on the Congress: "People did not like the tie-up with the Congress. Maybe the people also didn't like my breaking the BJP though it was actually the BJP which dismissed me from the party." The apologetic tone was in stark contrast to the stridency he displayed till a few days ago.

As Keshubhai, the architect of the BJP's sweep, put it, "More than the party's, this is a people's victory over the politics of horsetrading, money and muscle. It is clearly a verdict against the betrayal of public mandate by the RJP and Congress." Said a jubilant Narendra Modi, the party's national secretary and poll strategist for whom it was personal triumph over sworn political foe Vaghela: "It is a victory of those with a mission over those who live on personal ambition and commission." Though belated, many say that the decision to put Modi in charge of the Gujarat poll made all the difference.

The BJP's comeback blaze didn't spare even Congress giants like Gujarat pcc chief C.D. Patel, his predecessor Prabodh Raval and former chief minister Chhabildas Mehta. Among the Congress big names, only Amarsinh Chaudhary came out unscathed. The only consolation for the party was that it touched the 50-mark for the first time in the state since the 1990 Assembly polls when it had won just 33 seats. As Raval said, "There is a clear message for us in this verdict -- that our rank and file should be in touch with the people round the clock and not during election time alone." Chaudhary was more forthright. While stressing on the party's improved performance, he admitted that supporting the Vaghela government was a mistake: "We have paid the price for backing the wrong people for too long. Our identification with the discredited RJP government proved costly. Secondly, our candidates were starved of funds."

The BJP's ascent to power will not be without its share of problems though. The results clearly indicate that the party's grip over the tribal heartland of south and central Gujarat, apart from the obc-Kshatriya pockets of central Gujarat, was still quite weak. The Congress won mostly in the tribal and Kshatriya-dominated areas. The RJP too lost narrowly in nearly a dozen OBC-dominated pockets because of the division of votes in a triangular contest -- in fact it came second in 22 seats. The BJP will now have to concentrate on cementing its base among the backward classes. For, there's always the danger of Vaghela, who resorted to blatant caste politics while campaigning in the backward-class pockets, instigating them against the BJP.

Says political analyst Dineshbhai Shukla: "The BJP will have to resort to social engineering if it is to strike permanent roots in large areas of the state ." For instance, one challenge before it is to throw up a Kshatriya leader to match Vaghela. Says social worker Prakash Shah: "The BJP would be committing a mistake by viewing Vaghela as a simple case of indiscipline and ambition. With the party's victory, that plank is gone. It will now have to fight him on the social engineering front."

The state BJP leadership is, however, seized of the matter. As a senior leader put it, "Cementing our caste base through party programmes and projection of apt leaders would be one of our main goals now." But the party's problem is that besides Modi, few of its leaders understand the social engineering concept in the context of the state's changing social profile.

Another challenge before the new BJP Government is how to clean up the mess left behind by the RJP dispensation. Vaghela's party presided over what is said to have been the most corrupt government in the state. Says a senior bureaucrat: "The administration had been reduced to serving the RJP machinery rather than the people."

While charges of corruption and misuse of power abound, for the new Government it presents an opportunity to prove its commitment to clean administration. Says Keshu-bhai, whose clean-up drive during his earlier tenure as chief minister had created a big impact: "We will set up a commission to investigate these corrupt deals and will take action if the charges are proved."

But the real test for the BJP lies in tackling infighting which has been its bane over the past couple of years. Fortunately for the party, former state party chief Kashiram Rana has now come around after having been at loggerheads with the RSS loyalists for almost two years. But problems persist between former chief minister Suresh Mehta and the Sangh loyalists. Another sore point for many is Fakirbhai Vaghela. But in Keshubhai, the BJP has a leader capable of giving both ideological and moral direction to the Government. Besides, the party also has the organisational strength in Gujarat to meet the challenge. Whether it has learnt its lessons from past mistakes will be known only after Keshubhai, forms his ministry after Holi.

INTERVIEW: KESHUBHAI PATEL
"We will spare none"

Shortly before taking over as chief minister, Keshubhai Patel spoke to Principal Correspondent Uday Mahurkar.

To what do you attribute this landslide victory?

To the people's ire against the betrayal of a mandate. It is in fact the people's victory. And it is their way of saying they won't forgive those who believe they can rule on the strength of money and muscle power. Shankersinh Vaghela used to boast that the people are his high command. Now the people have shown what they think of him.

Last time too you got a two-thirds majority, but your government did not last long. What is your guarantee against another Khajuraho type of operation?

The author of Khajuraho has been taught a lesson by the people. Besides, we were extremely careful in giving tickets and we are sure of the loyalties of our candidates. And we are committed to giving not just a stable government but also a clean and efficient administration.

What is your top priority?

Ensuring physical and social security to the poorest of the poor. To see that the benefits of the pro-poor schemes reach the people. We will develop an information and monitoring system wherein the targeted beneficiaries themselves will keep us informed about the actual benefits.

Any comment on Vaghela?

He is a victim of his own thirst for power and ego. He needs to do some introspection.

The RJP government was accused of corruption. It had allegedly entered into several contracts, particularly in the power sector, which are going to put a huge burden on the state in the years to come ...

We are committed to investigating every case in which corruption allegedly took place. And if we find evidence, we won't spare anybody, including Vaghela.

What are your feelings as you get ready to take over as chief minister once again?

It's a big responsibility. My constant worry from now onwards will be how to sustain the people's confidence in the Government for the next five years.