March 16, 1998

The wafer-thin divide makes another poll inevitable.

By Uday Mahukar

In January, when elections to the Lok Sabha were announced, Himachal Pradesh chief minister Virbhadra Singh was comfortably ensconced in office. His Government had an absolute majority in the state Assembly and there were still 11 months left of its tenure. Yet, Singh dissolved the Assembly, opting for fresh polls along with the Lok Sabha election.

In retrospect, it has been a bad gamble. The elections held for 65 seats in the 68-strong assembly -- polls for three seats will be held later -- saw the number of Congress members slide from 56 to 31, two short of what is required for a majority. The BJP, in spite of having gone to the hustings as a faction-riddled party, hit an unexpected jackpot, romping home in 29 constituencies (one of its candidates died after being elected). Worse, Singh's fears came true when the Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC), led by the scam-tainted former Union communications minister Sukh Ram, played the spoilsport, bagging four seats and damaging Congress' prospects in a dozen constituencies. Along with an Independent -- BJP rebel Ramesh Chand -- the third force holds the key to determine who will come to power in the state.

Wary of a head count before Governor V.S. Rama Devi, both the Congress and the BJP have been demanding a trial of strength on the floor of the House. Their calculations hinge on the natural advantage in wooing the fence-sitters if in power. But with the Governor insisting on meeting the four HVC MLAs and the Independent, the BJP managed to produce them shortly before the deadline on the midnight of March 5. At stake for the BJP and the Congress are also the elections to three tribal assembly segments and one by-election in mid-June. Their outcome would hold the key to the majority and the party in power will reap electoral benefits.

Rama Devi -- her experience in handling constitutional crises as former Rajya Sabha secretary-general notwithstanding -- has been at her wit's end. "I have not encountered anything like this in legislative politics," she said. Like the emerging trend at the Centre, she is now faced with the problem of whether to call the Congress -- the single largest party -- or the BJP-HVC combine to form the government.

"My decision would be based on sound legal and constitutional grounds and political realities," she said, adding, "There may be error of judgement but it will not be arbitrary."

Despite it being a no-wave election, the BJP has been able to exploit the undercurrent of anti-Establishment sentiment by playing an old card and accusing the Congress of regional discrimination against the lower hills. No wonder, the party managed to win 25 seats from this belt. A last-minute projection of state unit chief Prem Kumar Dhumal, a Rajput, to replace rival and MP Shanta Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate bolstered the party's prospects in Kangra and Hamipur where caste and regional factors dominate.

On the other hand, Singh's pre-election, quick-fix development doles failed to click and the Congress gained only in upper Himachal, its traditional bastion. And with the emergence of a third force in a traditionally two-party state, one thing is becoming certain. Whoever forms the government is unlikely to be in power for long and Himachal Pradesh may well have to go in for another election.

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