Cover Story: UF; Uneasy Unity

Today, it finishes a distant third on the track, way behind the runners up Congress' score (with allies) of 168, and has fallen too far behind the BJP and its allies' tally of 251 to even reach the last round. Also gone is its national character, 53 of its members -- or 55 per cent -- coming from just two states, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. Worse still, it is gripped by a crisis of existence as its largest regional partner, Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP), stung by the Congress' spectacular show in Andhra Pradesh, began eyeing the BJP for a future alliance. While the UF may still remain "unitedÜ" for some time, its unbreakable anti-BJP core has been reduced to only 66, comprising the Left Front (LF) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

However, the reason why the UF can endure the contrary pulls of the BJP and the Congress, and remain meticulously equidistant, is embedded in the state-level or personal perception of each of its partners.

DOWNSIZED

JD: Reduced in size and clout. From 29 MPs, it's down to six.
TMC: Lost heavily; only three of its 20 MPs re-elected.
DMK: Suffered a major setback. Reduced to six from 17 MPs.
AGP: Completely wiped out. Lost all five seats it held.
TDP: Suffered a setback; its tally down to 12 from 17 MPs.
SP: Only one to add to its seats. Went up from 17 to 20 MPs.
Left Front: CPI and CPI(M) went down marginally, while RSP and AIFB retained their seats.

Left Front: Jyoti Basu, the LF's prime ministerial candidate, has been able to retain the leftists' hold over his West Bengal in terms of seats, 33, but he owes it to the split in the Congress by Mamata Banerjee, bringing down the Congress' vote share in the state from 40.09 per cent in 1996 to only 15.21 per cent -- its lowest ever. Mamata's Trinamool Congress has swept away as many as seven seats in and around Calcutta. Besides, the BJP has, through its alliance with Trinamool, opened its account in the state, storming Dum Dum, a red citadel just across a highway from Basu's residence in Calcutta's Salt Lake colony. In his barnstorming across the state, Basu has repeatedly referred to the BJP as an "uncivilised, barbaric party" and Mamata as a "fraud". Now that the "barbarians" are at the gate, if not into the courtyard, the LF is worried about the continuance of its 22-year-long rule.

Trinamool could hijack the Congress because of Mamata's convincing spiel, that it (the Congress) had become the Marxists' "B team". The Congress support to the UF, of which the Left is a part, lent substance to her campaign and drew supporters away from the Congress in droves. It will be suicidal for the LF to either support the Congress again or to get supported by it. CPI(M) General Secretary H.S. Surjeet, in his initial anxiety to checkmate the BJP, promised to support a Congress-led government. But his entire party, and the LF partners, promptly shouted him down. While bringing the iron curtain down on the Soviet Union, Stalin cried for "socialism in one state". Today, his ideological mentors are fighting a battle for West Bengal.

Samajwadi Party: For Mulayam Singh Yadav, the stakes are somewhat different. He has not only increased the SP's tally in Uttar Pradesh from 17 to 20, but has raised the party's vote share from 20.72 per cent to 28.79 per cent, taking the battle into the BJP's (vote share: 36.29 per cent) court and completely eliminating the Congress. With the 113-year-old party failing to return a single MP from the state once considered to be its cradle, Mulayam is, unlike the Left, free from any political inhibition against the Congress at the Centre. In fact, his alliance with the Congress in Maharashtra helped to checkmate the BJP in that state, and has prompted the SP to sell the line of opposition to the BJP "at any cost".

But, to fight his final battle with the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, he must cobble up a broad alliance which cannot leave out the third largest vote bank, the Bahujan Samaj Party (20.56 per cent). A hasty pact with the Congress for the Centre may push the BSP dangerously close to the BJP. It may also upset the UF's regional partners, thus depriving him of the numbers. Mulayam will therefore cast his lot with the UF, and move with the group.

Telugu Desam Party: Caught unawares by the emergence of the BJP as the third arm of Andhra Pradesh's electoral triangle, Naidu has been forced to rethink his party's strategy. It can no more have a quid pro quo with the Congress. "We cannot discard our main philosophy of opposition to the Congress without annoying the rank and file," says TDP Rajya Sabha member Alladi Raj Kumar.

The dominant view at the TDP's strategy session, held in Hyderabad last week, favoured a tie-up with the BJP. Besides, an internal assessment also pointed towards the party getting squeezed out in a triangular race. That puts the computer-savvy chief minister in a moral dilemma. The telephone at his Jubilee Hills residence rang non-stop, with exhortations for not to leave the UF coming from V.P. Singh, Surjeet, and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi. Naidu, who has sufficient bargaining power within a decimated UF, may stick together provided the Front does not lurch towards the Congress. And even that is not a certainty.

Janata Dal: The party that had three prime ministers in eight years may be reduced to six, but the cement that binds such distant neighbours as H.D. Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral is a shared disgust for the Congress, which got both of them sacked from office without much reason. They'd neither sup with the BJP nor break bread with the Congress. Deve Gowda says, "It is the Congress which must answer why it forced an election and paved the way for the BJP."

DMK-TMC: The kingmakers of the previous Lok Sabha -- they'd won all 39 seats between them -- are reduced to only nine this time. The arch enemy of the two, Jayalalitha's AIADMK, which has increased its vote share from 7.84 per cent to 25.91 per cent, cannot blast Fort St George in the immediate future. However, for the DMK at least, a zealous support to the Congress now will amount to capitulation after the humiliation on the Jain Commission report. So the DMK must stay with the UF flock, and so must the TMC as they sink or swim together, electorally at least.