The Nation: India Today-Org-Marg Opinion Poll

INDIA TODAY-ORG-MARG OPINION POLL
Setback for Sonia

To set an early benchmark in what promises to be India's longest election season, india today commissioned ORG-MARG to conduct an opinion poll. Between April 30 and May 3, the survey team -- led by Perry C. Goes, associate research director of ORG-MARG -- covered 66 Lok Sabha constituencies in 16 states and met 16,123 registered voters. The sample was arrived at using the stratified systematic sampling method and designed to be representative of socio-cultural regions within each state. Responses were gathered by means of ballot papers to simulate actual voting. As always the mood of the people makes for interesting quantification; and throws up more questions than it answers.

Seats and Swings

Total Seats
543

% of votes

Swing %

		Number of seats	Mar '98 Actual	May'99 Forecast	Over Mar 98	Over Dec98
BJP+ Allies	Mar '98 Actual Seats	253	37.1	38.0	+0.9	+12
	Dec '98 Forecast	125-135
	May '99 Forecast	220-232
Cong+ Allies	Mar '98 Actual Seats	166	27.0	32.2	+5.2	-12.8
	Dec '98 Forecast	295-305
	May '99 Forecast	191-203
Third Front	Mar '98 Actual Seats	96	24.7	17.3	-7.4	+8.3
	Dec '98 Forecast	52-57
	May '99 Forecast	57-63
Others	May '99 Forecast	59-63	11.2	12.5

Regional Break-Up

North

South

East

West

Seats		BJP +allies	Mar 98	May 99	Mar 98	May 99	Mar 98	May 99	Mar 98	May 99
North	152		89	80-90	48	35-40	55	45-50	61	52-57
East	143	Cong +allies	24	30-35	42	54-59	42	44-49	58	60-65
West	118
South	130	Others	39	32-36	40	35-39	46	47-51	0	0-2
Total	543

Judgement Day

While the manner of his removal has been seen as unfair, Vajpayee and his ministry have been able to satisfy just over a third of all voters. But there is room for optimism for the BJP on two fronts. First, Vajpayee's personal rating is very impressive. Second, one of every three voters is undecided on an assessment of the government. This group will make up its mind in the next five months on the basis of the BJP-led caretaker administration.

Who will be the best prime minister for India?
A.B. Vajpayee	43
Sonia Gandhi	32
Mulayam Singh Yadav	4
Jyoti Basu	4
I.K. Gujral	2

How do you rate the overall performance of Vajpayee as PM?
Good	49
Bad	15
Average	27

How do you rate the overall performance of the BJP government?
Good	37
Bad	22
Average	33

Should the Vajpayee government have served its full five years in office?
Yes	60
No	21
Maybe	07

After recent events do you feel more sympathetic towards the Vajpayee government?
Yes	47
No	28
Maybe	08

Was pulling down Vajpayee's government justified?
Yes	23
No	59