May 17, 1999

To set an early benchmark in what promises to be India's longest election season, india today commissioned ORG-MARG to conduct an opinion poll. Between April 30 and May 3, the survey team -- led by Perry C. Goes, associate research director of ORG-MARG -- covered 66 Lok Sabha constituencies in 16 states and met 16,123 registered voters. The sample was arrived at using the stratified systematic sampling method and designed to be representative of socio-cultural regions within each state. Responses were gathered by means of ballot papers to simulate actual voting. As always the mood of the people makes for interesting quantification; and throws up more questions than it answers.

COALITION RAJ

In a time of confusion, opinions often appear contradictory. Three of every five voters feel the dissolution of the most perilously hung Lok Sabha in Indian history was incorrect. Ironically, an overwhelming majority prefers single-party regimes to coalitions. however, the BJP's experience in managing contradictions over 13 months seems to have stood it in good stead. It is ahead of the Congress in perceived ability to lead workable alliances.

FACTOR SONIA

Despite Sonia Gandhi's Italian origins exercising over a third of the electorate, a substantial plurality of voters say the "Rome raj" slogan is a non-starter. Nevertheless, the "nationality question" confronting Indian politics is far from resolution.

Sonia came to India as a bride three decades ago and acquired Indian citizenship about a decade and a half later. Not too many democracies allow a first generation migrant to become the head of government. On the other hand, public life in modern India has been remarkably assimilative. From the Congress itself foreign-born Annie Besant and Nellie Sengupta are cases in point. So the jury is still out.

Back

© Living Media India Ltd