India 2047

Standing on the crossroads of a millennial opportunity, will India be able to make a leap -- let alone a great leap -- into the next century? Here is the big picture.

F O R E I G N || A F F A I R S
New Allies, New Foes

• Central and West Asian oil and gas will continue to influence the Indian security neighbourhood.
• SAARC might grow to embrace Myanmar, Iran and Afghanistan.
• NRIs will rise to economic, technological and political influence, especially in North America, the UK and Europe.

India's foreign relations will move along a number of paths, all converging on the thought that to be safer the country must matter more. The first direction points to efforts to seek a resolution of disputes with all South Asian neighbours. The transition will be from a zero-sum game towards win-win outcomes.

There will be greater gains as the Kashmir question moves towards resolution within the next decade. This will be based on present realities and the forging of closer inter-relationships between the two parts of Jammu and Kashmir within a framework of growing Indo-Pak friendship and cooperation.

The negative memories of Partition will then begin to recede with a rapprochement of sovereign friends, including Bangladesh, within SAARC, with so much to give to and gain from one another.

The drawing of a peaceful border with China will open up broader bilateral and cross-border openings. saarc itself might grow to embrace Iran and Afghanistan in the west and Myanmar in the east, each providing a bridge to further relationships with West and Central Asia and Southeast Asia and Southwest China, respectively. The Indian Ocean Rim will also bring together a wider Afro-Asian community.

Emerging concerns over unipolarity will engender concerted action with Russia, China, Japan, Europe and others further afield like Brazil. There will also be a shift of gear from political to economic relations with the US, Europe and Japan. More likely, the West may endeavour to retain its political and economic clout a while longer through a mix of appeals to human rights, environmental concerns, the imposition of social conditions, the assertion of tribal or indigenous rights, embargoes on so-called dual-use technologies and the rejection of labour mobility while championing the free market. However, India's growth is unlikely to be impeded. With more migration and better communications, the world is fast becoming more multicultural. The India diaspora, now 16 million by one count, will assume greater importance as nris rise to positions of economic, technological and even political influence in North America, Britain, Europe and elsewhere.

The struggle for biodiversity will supersede that for oil, though Central and West Asian oil and gas will continue to influence the geopolitics of the Indian security neighbourhood.

If India remains as eager an advocate as before of a more just and moral world order, it will have to play a more vigorous role in the UN and seek to refashion global governance.

In a fast changing world, with old balance of power and geopolitical equations being rendered obsolete, the sheer range, depth and speed of technological change will enjoin a new orientation to both foreign policy and security planning in which trade, financial and scientific issues will loom large. The ministries of external affairs and defence, as presently structured, are ill-suited to grapple with the new challenges. Policy planning and integrated, inter-disciplinary thinking will be increasingly necessary. A national security council is required, but the very concept needs to be thought through anew if it is to be meaningful.

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