India Today Poll 98 [State Equations]

The equations presented below are not forecasts for the 1998 elections. They are the result of computer simulations designed to estimate the possible effect of various alliances and splits, based on the artificial assumption that the parties' vote share has not changed since 1996.

UTTAR PRADESH: 85 SEATS

Seats in 1996
BJP: 52 UF: 20 Congress: 5 BSP: 6
Scenario 1: UF+CONGRESS
BJP+: 44 UF+Cong: 34 BSP: 6
Scenario 2: BSP+CONGRESS
BJP+: 44 UF: 12 Congress+BSP: 28
Scenario 3: UF+BSP
BJP+: 15 UF+BSP: 62 Congress: 8

Asuming that Loktantrik Congress has taken away one-fourth of the Congress votes to the BJP

Alliances are crucial to the final outcome in Uttar Pradesh and thus to the entire country. The Congress is already weakened by the formation of the Loktantrik Congress. An alliance with the UF, or at least its dominant partner, the SP, can help it recover and make a small dent in the BJP tally. So can a Congress tie-up with the BSP. But a major reversal of the BPJ victory of 1996 can only come about if Mulayam and Mayawati bury their past and fight together. But that is a big "if".

MADHYA PRADESH: 40 SEATS

Seats in 1996
BJP: 27 Congress: 8 BSP: 2 Cong Splinters: 3
Scenario 1: Congress (after Cong(T), MPVC merger):
BJP: 25 Congress: 14 BSP: 1
Scenario 2: Congress+BSP:
BJP: 20 Congress+BSP: 20

Despite the return of Arjun Singh and Madhavrao Scindia to the party, the internal feuds and the burden of incumbency may weigh the Congress down. An alliance with the BSP, the emerging third force in the state, can help the party give the BJP a run for its money in Vindhya Pradesh and in some constituencies in Chhattisgarh.

BIHAR: 54 SEATS

Seats in 1996
BJP+Samata: 24 UF: 26 Congress:2
Scenario 1: RJD+Congress+JMM (Cong-RJD retain 90 per cent of Cong and JD votes):
BJP+Samata: 15 RJD+JMM+Congress: 34 UF: 4
Scenario 2: RJD+Congress+JMM (RJD loses 15 per cent to JD, Cong loses 25 per cent to BJP+):
BJP+Samata: 18 RJD+JMM+Congress: 31 UF+: 4

UF+ includes CPI(M-L) and M(COR)

Laloo Yadav may well have gained through alliances what he has lost in popularity over the past couple of years. Even if the three parties lose some of the combined vote share of 55 per cent in 1996, the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha alliance is a formidable force. The BJP-Samata combine needs to generate a massive swing in its favour to offset the effect of this new alliance

January 19, 1998