Neighbours; Pakistan; Ambushing the Army

Sharif has won a major confrontation with the military but the battle is far from over.

With the economy in tatters and sectarian strife continuing unabated, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif should rightly be flat on the mat. Islamabad's cavernous corridors of power were in fact crowded with rumours of an impending army intervention-something the country never rules out. So when General Jahangir Karamat, who till last Wednesday was Pakistan's all-powerful army chief, spoke out openly against what he termed the "polarisation, vendetta and insecurity-driven expedient policies" of the Sharif Government, it appeared that those rumours may soon become fact.

However, in an astounding development last week, Karamat-who was to retire in January 1999-put in his papers after a stormy two-hour meeting with Sharif. The prime minister reportedly accused Karamat of trying to destabilise his government and undermine democracy. Sharif not only accepted his resignation but appointed Lt-General Pervaiz Musharraf as the new army chief, superseding in the process two other generals, Lt-General Ali Kuli Khan and Lt-General Khaled Nawaz. Both these generals also resigned in protest.

Karamat's resignation appears to be a major political victory for Sharif. He had successfully taken on the other two pillars of power-the president and the judiciary-and won those rounds. Both President Farooq Ahmed Leghari and Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah had to resign after acrimonious battles with Sharif. Only the military stood in Sharif's way. With Sharif emerging on top in this confrontation too, "he seems to have emerged as the unquestioned emperor of Pakistan," as Khalid Mahmud, research analyst at Islamabad's Institute for Regional Studies, puts it.

Sharif's explanation for his action against the army chief was brief but clever. He told a meeting of ruling party MPs that "the supremacy of the parliament and the democratic principles should not be undermined at any cost". Meaning that Karamat had exceeded his brief by reportedly calling for the establishment of a National Security Council to enable, among others, the military top brass to participate in decisions on national affairs. This despite Karamat denying that he had made such a strong statement and pointing out that he was answering questions raised by officers during a session at the Naval Staff College. Sharif later told his Cabinet that when Karamat met him he had insisted on the establishment of a National Security Council. Sharif refused and a few hours later Karamat sent a letter requesting for early retirement.

Most analysts believe that Sharif's triumph may be short-lived. Karamat's forced retirement and the resignation of two other generals, they say, will only further fuel the tension between the beleaguered Government and the restive military generals. "The matter was not handled with finesse and decency by Sharif," says General Mirza Aslam Beg, former chief of army staff. "There's bound to be lots of resentment in the army. Given the fact that there is a serious economic crunch and a growing political and ideological divide, Sharif's attempt to concentrate power will soon wither away and he would be in deep trouble."

Beg and others point out that Karamat's pronouncements were in fact a reflection of the views of the corps commanders in the army, as also the senior officers from the other two services. There is growing concern among the armed forces that Sharif may lead the country to ruin. Besides, there is a general feeling that he is becoming more and more dictatorial, often ignoring his cabinet colleagues on major decisions. There was also a strong disapproval of Sharif's plans to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and kowtow to US proposals on limiting the country's nuclear deterrence.

The latest change of guard may not alter the army's position on the establishment of a national security council. "What will Sharif do if the new chief also asks for it?" asks Beg. Musharraf, a non-Punjabi general like Beg who belongs to the Mohajir community in Karachi, has a reputation for being neutral. If the political situation gets out of hand, he is unlikely to blindly do Sharif's bidding. Moreover, Karamat's statement for institutionalising the army's role in the political set-up was also widely supported by the opposition leaders and some members of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League. "General Karamat's resignation has created more confusion and is bound to worsen matters," said Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the chief of the right-wing Jamaat-i-Islami.

While Sharif may appear to have emerged supreme, he is increasingly becoming isolated. His moves to impose the law of the Shariah through the 15th amendment to the Constitution has already evoked strong reaction among the Opposition and many of his own partymen. Realising that his support base was slipping, Sharif dropped some of the more controversial clauses in the amendment and diluted some of the harsher ones. For instance, the clause empowering the Government to amend the Constitution with a simple majority instead of the current two-thirds of the House was done away with. Another clause with draconian powers that could enable Sharif to move against any state functionary for not complying with the Shariah was also deleted.

While that may pacify many of the dissenters, Sharif's real problem continues to be the imminent economic meltdown. If the situation worsens, law and order could get out of hand, resulting in a total breakdown of civic administration. Sharif may then have to turn to the army for help. That's when it will perhaps decide to pay him back in his own coin. The confrontation, some say, may flare up sooner than later.

WHINING TIME
The Indo-Pak talks resume but expectations are low

The only way India and Pakistan seem to be able to deal with each other is when each can claim triumph over the other. Only after both declared victory has the stalled dialogue between their foreign secretaries resumed. Later this week Indian Foreign Secretary K. Raghunath and his Pakistani counterpart Shamshad Ahmad will meet in Islamabad and discuss Kashmir and the larger issue of peace and security between the two countries.

The Pakistanis say that India has recognised the primacy of the Kashmir issue, while Indian officials who last week released the detailed schedule of a second set of talks between November 5-13 to cover the gamut of other Indo-Pakistani issues say that the process is part of a composite dialogue. Both sides have already reached an agreement over some of the other subjects but Pakistan is holding them hostage to the tangled Kashmir issue. The Pakistani statement that they will be representing the Kashmiri people at the talks seems to presage a hardening of their position.

Whether or not the talks lead anywhere will depend on the way Pakistan approaches the meeting in Islamabad. Should Islamabad attempt, as it did in 1994, to demand the moon-namely the initiation of the process of handing over Kashmir to Pakistan or give the state independence-the talks will fail once again. But if the discussions focus on more modest ways of reducing violence in the Valley, there's a chance of success though certainly not in the short haul. Both sides will also have to signal to the world that they are responsible international players. and are not about to blow up the region over Kashmir.

-Manoj Joshi